May 2013 Pattern and Discussion

[jburns]

Nice larry,

Maybe katl will get through met spring without hitting 90! That my friend would be a treat.

We have less than 4 months until met fall and I can't wait. The days will start getting shorter in about six weeks... tick tock goes the clock on summerlike temps.

 

lol  On the first day of school you were the kid yelling, "Only 179 more days!".

[Hvward]

Folks...could use some help here. We have a travel soccer team headed for Asheville / Hendersonville tomorrow pm for 7pm game. Point and click is saying a chance of tstorms for most of the piedmont and foothills. Parents concerned about svr and want to try and cancel the game (a bit premature). I see the model chances for tstorms but I am no expert on svr analysis.

Anyone willing to take a stab at svr potential for tomorrow PM in Asheville? There is a few hundred dollars worth of charter bus fees on the line here.

I am no expert here but it is really a hit or miss situation with every t storm event. Two hours ago I was at home eating lunch in the sun then came back to work (less then a mile away) and had to run in from my car because it was raining so hard. I would bet on seeing a 15 minute shower but nothing wide spread or day ruining. Once again though I am no expert, I've just lived here for 24 years.

[Kilgore Trout]

Folks...could use some help here. We have a travel soccer team headed for Asheville / Hendersonville tomorrow pm for 7pm game. Point and click is saying a chance of tstorms for most of the piedmont and foothills. Parents concerned about svr and want to try and cancel the game (a bit premature). I see the model chances for tstorms but I am no expert on svr analysis.

Anyone willing to take a stab at svr potential for tomorrow PM in Asheville? There is a few hundred dollars worth of charter bus fees on the line here.

You've probably checked it, but here is the hourly weather graph from the NWS, a tool I use anytime I want a general idea of hourly weather.  http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.56898&lon=-82.570960451977&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical.  Looks like thunderstorm chances drop off around 6 pm.

 

Also, from their discussion:

 

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL

CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LLVL FLOW VEERS TO NEARLY DUE

WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY...WITH PWATS DROPPING. WILL CONTINUE

WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NC ZONES...AND HIGH-END CHC SOUTH. SEVERE

THREAT LOOKS TO STAY EAST WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL SET UP.

QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED...AS STORMS SHUD HAVE DECENT EWD

MOTION...AND DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO

REACH THE 70S BELOW 3500 FT...TO LWR 80S IN THE LWR PIEDMONT.

 

No one else on here will be able to tell you anymore than that.  It looks like things could be okay, but there is still a small chance there could be something.

[kvegas-wx]

You've probably checked it, but here is the hourly weather graph from the NWS, a tool I use anytime I want a general idea of hourly weather. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.56898&lon=-82.570960451977&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical. Looks like thunderstorm chances drop off around 6 pm.

Also, from their discussion:

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL

CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LLVL FLOW VEERS TO NEARLY DUE

WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY...WITH PWATS DROPPING. WILL CONTINUE

WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NC ZONES...AND HIGH-END CHC SOUTH. SEVERE

THREAT LOOKS TO STAY EAST WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL SET UP.

QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED...AS STORMS SHUD HAVE DECENT EWD

MOTION...AND DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO

REACH THE 70S BELOW 3500 FT...TO LWR 80S IN THE LWR PIEDMONT.

No one else on here will be able to tell you anymore than that. It looks like things could be okay, but there is still a small chance there could be something.

Thanks guys. I can deal with rain and since this is state cup for high school they will play in anything other than tstorms.

[Isopycnic]

You've probably checked it, but here is the hourly weather graph from the NWS, a tool I use anytime I want a general idea of hourly weather.  http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.56898&lon=-82.570960451977&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical.  Looks like thunderstorm chances drop off around 6 pm.

 

Also, from their discussion:

 

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL

CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LLVL FLOW VEERS TO NEARLY DUE

WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY...WITH PWATS DROPPING. WILL CONTINUE

WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NC ZONES...AND HIGH-END CHC SOUTH. SEVERE

THREAT LOOKS TO STAY EAST WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL SET UP.

QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED...AS STORMS SHUD HAVE DECENT EWD

MOTION...AND DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO

REACH THE 70S BELOW 3500 FT...TO LWR 80S IN THE LWR PIEDMONT.

 

No one else on here will be able to tell you anymore than that.  It looks like things could be okay, but there is still a small chance there could be something.

[eyewall]Sounds like a bust[/eyewall]

[GaWx]

_Folks,

_{Fwiw, the 12Z Goofy per MeteoStar has a record tieing low of 42 F for KATL on Monday 5/13. I wouldn't bet on it just yet largely due to cold bias, but it is certainly doable considering that run's +5 850, a favorable trajectory, and the fact that KATL often cools down well during the first night of a cold snap. Also, the 0Z Euro has the 850 down to +5 C though it is warmer. Then again, the Euro has some warm bias. So, we'll see..As of now, I think that I'd go with the middle ground of a low near 45 at KATL 5/13 for the safest play.}

Folks,

The 6z gfs has the low at a new record of 41 at katl Mon with 850 at 4C fwiw. Euro remains warmer. I'd now go with ~44.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Just took a brief look at the 12z, the temps for Tuesday morning are trending a bit higher for Western North Carolina. A couple days ago it looked like the mountains above 3000 ft had a chance to approach freezing, that has backed off some. I'm thinking down here at the lower elevations, probably 39 at the lowest. Regardless, its still cool for Mid May...

 

 

Surely this is going to be the last cool shot of the spring season, temps should rebound quickly by Wednesday and Thursday with highs here in the low 80's...you can also tell we're getting closer to summer, the GFS has started throwing out there some tropical development in the fantasy range.

[metalicwx366]

Just took a brief look at the 12z, the temps for Tuesday morning are trending a bit higher for Western North Carolina. A couple days ago it looked like the mountains above 3000 ft had a chance to approach freezing, that has backed off some. I'm thinking down here at the lower elevations, probably 39 at the lowest. Regardless, its still cool for Mid May...

Surely this is going to be the last cool shot of the spring season, temps should rebound quickly by Wednesday and Thursday with highs here in the low 80's...you can also tell we're getting closer to summer, the GFS has started throwing out there some tropical development in the fantasy range.

GFS in the long range is seeing the upcoming active pulse of the MJO that is expected to reach the Western Carribean towards the end of the month. It has been very consistent in showing this in each run since Wednesday.

[NavarreDon]

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

254 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH

CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...

.AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE

INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL

DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT...AND MANY AREAS ABOVE 3000 FEET MAY

EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD

IN THE VALLEYS...THOUGH IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY ALSO

EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-121000-

/O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.A.0006.130513T0400Z-130513T1300Z/

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-

NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...

WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...

HENDERSONVILLE

254 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS

ABOVE 3000 FEET.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[buckeyefan1]

[eyewall]Sounds like a bust[/eyewall]

 

Not the first drop of rain here imby either  

 

 

After reaching an afternoon high of 88 yesterday and 84 today (thank you clouds), high's in the low 70's for the first part of the week are going to feel wonderful    

[GaWx]

Folks,

The 6z gfs has the low at a new record of 41 at katl Mon with 850 at 4C fwiw. Euro remains warmer. I'd now go with ~44.

 

Folks,

 The Sun 0Z gfs is cooler by one degree vs. yesterday's 6Z with a new record low of 40 at katl Mon vs. the current record low of 42. I'm now going with 43.

[mackerel_sky]

Looks like we get to dry out for a while! No rain for next ten days, and temps into the mid 80s by the middle and end of next week.Time to enjoy spring!

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The Sun 0Z gfs is cooler by one degree vs. yesterday's 6Z with a new record low of 40 at katl Mon vs. the current record low of 42. I'm now going with 43.

Folks,

The 6z Goofy has gone up one degree vs. the 0z per MeteoStar and has 41f at Katl tonight, which would still be a record low. However, temp.'s this morning are running 3-5 warmer than this run in four cities I checked in n Ga and Tn. In addition, the Euro runs have been continuing to suggest no colder than about 46 at Katl. It looks like the gfs cold bias is in play. Although the Euro has some warm bias, U'm going to go a but closer to it. I'm raising my katl low temp. prediction for tomorrow (5/13) from 43 to 45. Please put down all guns as I'm just "messengering". While you're at it, put the knives away, too lol.

[downeastnc]

Local NWS going with 40 here tomorrow night which would break the record low for May 14th. 

 

From MHX 

 

COOLEST NIGHT OF THE MONTH LOOKS TO OCCUR MON NIGHT AS COOL SFC HIGH
PRES TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS POSITIONED OVER E NC. TRENDED
WITH COOLEST GUIDANCE...AS VERY DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS ALLOWS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 INLAND TO UPPER 40S IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN RECORD LOW TERRITORY FOR MAY 14...AS RECORD
LOW IS 44 IN NEW BERN...41 IN GREENVILLE.

[nchighcountrywx]

Back to winter in the NC High Country:

..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO

20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO

20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 34 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS

AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH IN THE MORNING.

[nchighcountrywx]

RaysWeather today referenced some interesting historical frost and freeze data for late freezes in Western NC.

It appears the record for the latest one is June 11 in Banner Elk!

http://www.averyweather.com/Almanac/Frost+Freeze

[dsaur]

Larry, I'm going with 39.8 for me.  With td's in the 30's, if the planets are in the correct alignment, and the cicadas are stirring, this being the year of the two moons, it's at least possible, lol.  Well, the two moons may be next year, but it's close enough   T

[mackerel_sky]

Saw some high clouds rolling through around sunset, may stop the perfect radiational cooling conditions, so I will go with 44 for mby tomorrow AM. Currently 59 degrees

[FallsLake]

After a brief warm-up later this week (for 5 days or so), the GFS shows more cool temps in the long range. Below is day 10, but it shows a trough from that point all the way out to day 16 (and maybe beyond).

 

6z GFS day 10:

 

[Met1985]

After a brief warm-up later this week (for 5 days or so), the GFS shows more cool temps in the long range. Below is day 10, but it shows a trough from that point all the way out to day 16 (and maybe beyond).

 

6z GFS day 10:

 

Ill take it. The later we can hold of the heat the better.

[dsaur]

Folks,

 The Sun 0Z gfs is cooler by one degree vs. yesterday's 6Z with a new record low of 40 at katl Mon vs. the current record low of 42. I'm now going with 43.

Soooo...my remotes had 37.8, 40.1 and 40.2.  The Experiment Station just south east of me had 43.  So, you win, I win, and with the nice cool air, we all win.  Hooray, for CrossRoads Winter!!!  Keep it going until Oct.  I'd love to see a summer with temps no higher than 80, lol.  T

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Soooo...my remotes had 37.8, 40.1 and 40.2.  The Experiment Station just south east of me had 43.  So, you win, I win, and with the nice cool air, we all win.  Hooray, for CrossRoads Winter!!!  Keep it going until Oct.  I'd love to see a summer with temps no higher than 80, lol.  T

Enjoy these last few days of cool air before summer sets in. Not sure if we will have a high below 80 again after tomorrow until September.

[dsaur]

Enjoy these last few days of cool air before summer sets in. Not sure if we will have a high below 80 again after tomorrow until September.

Ye of little faith!  I predict a record low for June coming.  Well, a near record low.  Well, a vigorous cold front with some nice cool   T

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Ye of little faith!  I predict a record low for June coming.  Well, a near record low.  Well, a vigorous cold front with some nice cool   T

A vigorous cold front in June would cool us down to about 85 ?

[DCMetroWinston]

In the last few years, we have had some vigorous cold fronts with lows deep down in the 50's, highs in the 70's. In fact, with the exception of the last two summers and 2007, strong summer cold fronts were not abnormal in VA and NC.

[dsaur]

Yeah, last summer, or the one before, we had two days in July that were cloudy and in the 70's from a nice wedge set up.  They use to to be not so unusual.  Get a front, some thundershowers set up along it, cool the air....and presto a pleasant summers day...you don't even need rain, just some outflow boundaries blowing in the cool from someone else's storms..  T

[metalicwx366]

Yeah, last summer, or the one before, we had two days in July that were cloudy and in the 70's from a nice wedge set up. They use to to be not so unusual. Get a front, some thundershowers set up along it, cool the air....and presto a pleasant summers day...you don't even need rain, just some outflow boundaries blowing in the cool from someone else's storms.. T

Last June was really cool and rainy. Had record blocking also last June. That kind of pattern we would have been going crazy if it was January.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Last June was really cool and rainy. Had record blocking also last June. That kind of pattern we would have been going crazy if it was January.

Wasn't it last June that Atlanta had it's hottest temperature ever of 106 ?

[Bevo]

Wasn't it last June that Atlanta had it's hottest temperature ever of 106 ?

 I believe that was from that massive Midwest heat wave during the last few days of June and first of July.  Regardless, it didn't push very far past ATL south and eastward.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looking around at the global models this afternoon, I'd say our run of cool mornings are over until the fall, Blackberry winter has came and gone. We're heading towards late spring/early summer type of weather.

 

Looking at the general synoptics, we should remain warm and with humidity gradually getting higher, that at some point could favor convection where any interaction (frontal, topography, sea breeze) can occur.

 

Also noticing on the GFS Day 7 and beyond where it leaves a general weakness that could evolve into a retrograding upper low over the Coastal Southeast, Euro shows a more established cutoff over the Ohio Valley.