Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

May 2013 Pattern and Discussion


metalicwx366

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 284
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I prefer to keep it here and the free WXSOUTH info. Let's keep the thread a rolling folks it's a good one.

 

 

Dude I've tried everything else so that leaves me with only this.

 

STFU

 

+1, +5, +100 ...

 

Even having this kid on ignore doesn't hide his attempts to moderate and micro-manage things

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FFC is all in. I give them props for being on this threat for days now. Much like Robert they are taking this threat very seriously. Upped totals to 3.5 - 5.5". I'm located on the line between the two green shades. Unfortunately there is no longer an open area for my rain gauge so I won't be able to post a total.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

isnt FFC pretty conservative with their forecasts also. been awhile since ive seen a office forecast that much rain. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

isnt FFC pretty conservative with their forecasts also. been awhile since ive seen a office forecast that much rain.

Over the past year or so they have moved away from the overly conservative forecasting they were known for. I think they are in the sweet spot now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Over the past year or so they have moved away from the overly conservative forecasting they were known for. I think they are in the sweet spot now.

that's alot of rain! Hope yall stay safe!

 

you can see the moisture coming in from the ocean from this microwave imagery...

latest72hrs.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is going to be a really big deal. I've been sending out notices and alarms all week on this because its an important storm for many reasons. First, as primarily a synoptic forecast (as opposed to just modelologist) I love forecasting this type of event, and from the beginning stages on GFS it was apparent this could be a heavy duty item. When Euro caved in, it was a done deal, and this is looking like the mother of all cutoffs in Spring time, going back for quite a few years. We see weak upper lows take this track, but true cutoffs that completely detach like this and are held at bay by a blocking ridge in the Northeast, well it's kinda like our superstorm version of Sandy (hate to say that). 

If you look at individual frames on the GFS you can see that some strong vorts help to wobble the cutoff and affect it's direction. Both GFS and Euro show this nicely and in this case the wobbles and its orientation will play a big deal on how rain develops.  I was shocked that SPC still doesn't have any chance of hail under and south of the cutoff, because I know there will be some hailers in the afternoons as convection blossoms. This will happen in northern LA, MS as early as tomorrow, then probably repeat again Sunday in Alabama, then Monday for Georgia and western or central SC region.  If skies break, watch out in the afternoons. This cutoff is shown to be well developed, much more so than most, and since there is a big blocking high about 572 to 576 dm in the Northeast, this actually strengthens the cutoff and holds it back some, but also funnels in a continuous stream of RH on the northern quad of the circulation through its life time. Also, the contours are spaced in just the right distance apart, sometimes they are too broad or too concentric but this one is a true classic to be a big performer.

By Monday the models begin to rotate this cutoff more northeast  , after leaving central/north Georgia so usually when this happens, (after reaching inflection point)  on the northwest side there is going to be added lift from both the frontogentic forcing and upslope, as if there wasn't enough from the initial conveyor belt.  The contours take on a perfect look and orientation and track to really nail the northern regions of GA and northeast Alabama to southeast TN, and both western to central Carolinas. The track is similar to March 2009, only slower and deeper, thank goodness it's not Winter anymore, as that would be a really wicked Winter storm.

As for rain totals, my maps line up now with WPC but only more QPF in the smaller upslope areas of ne GA, nw SC, sw NC..but thats a resolution issue...real upslope events into Transylvania County and nw SC, northeast GA like this are humdingers and always underdone  on the models. The idea though is that is a max zone.

Where the dry slot develops after the first main conveyor band of the western Atlantic inflow arc is a tough call,  But since the low is so far south, this is very bad news likely for sw VA and most of western NC in the long run, because rain will quickly fill back in there, after the first band, and the center of circulation reaches its inflection point around Atlanta, which still shows some pinwheeling and steady inflow off the Atlantic around the core, so its going to be a bonus rain event roughly from ne Al, n GA and western NC, east TN I think.  Only Tuesday or Wednesday  (maybe even Thursday) does the circulation get so far removed as to finally wind down the rain chances.  But dont' look too far out, already more rain is showing up.

You gotta love this if you were hard up for rain fall in the last 10 years like me. (actually my drought ended 2 Summers ago).  Its amazing how mother nature remembers the old score and will reverse the tables. Sorry this type of flow didn't happen this Winter for all the snow lovers, if it had begun a few weeks earlier, what a difference the snow totals would have been.....pure bad timing.

Anyway, I'm sure we'll be seeing some bad pictures come in by Monday morning in some areas as rivers rise, and some rain rates of 1/2 " to 3/4" per hour will do some damage in the region...on top of really wet soil already. Then generally showery weather under the low (and some convection , hail possible afternoons) as well. Its a truly fascinating storm system with many aspects that I'm sure will be in case studies in many weather offices sometime

Some impacts I think we will see:

dam breaks

river flood stages (out of banks)

road closures

landslide, mudslide moutains

a few trees fall over

low topped severe on southeast and northwest quads of circulation (hail, weak twisters)

water spouts outer banks

water rescues

 

Good weekend to stay indoors and watch it rain. Stay dry!

robert

That's about par! I'm leaving for the OBX Monday morning plan on staying till Friday... :twister:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's about par! I'm leaving for the OBX Monday morning plan on staying till Friday... :twister:

Tell me this wasnt a pre-planned fishing trip! 

 

On another note my beans I planted 3 weeks ago look as good Ive ever seen. Not gung ho on 2-4 inches of rain the next few days. I delayed planting my cucumbers and squash until about 9 days ago. Still no sign they've germinated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New Euro weeklies look average to a little below average right through this month. Will be nice not to have a heat wave this early.

Sadly I have temps near 90 next week after this cool weather. Only 70 today which is 10-15 degs below average and next few days look below.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FFC is all in. I give them props for being on this threat for days now. Much like Robert they are taking this threat very seriously. Upped totals to 3.5 - 5.5". I'm located on the line between the two green shades. Unfortunately there is no longer an open area for my rain gauge so I won't be able to post a total.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Doesn't look like a huge deal to me for metro Atlanta. 2" or so of rain over a 2-3 day period doesn't seem like it would cause a lot of problems. Much of metro Atlanta is not even under a Flood Watch ! Looks to me like this is an extreme North GA event, mainly from Rome to Gainesville and northward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't look like a huge deal to me for metro Atlanta. 2" or so of rain over a 2-3 day period doesn't seem like it would cause a lot of problems. Much of metro Atlanta is not even under a Flood Watch ! Looks to me like this is an extreme North GA event, mainly from Rome to Gainesville and northward.

You don't know what you're talking about. Models show potential for much more than 2"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Excuse me..... I'm just going by what the NWS is saying and they are saying 2-3" for most of Metro ATL and points southward.

You don't have a clue. This includes the city of Atlanta. Please see the most recent model runs back two posts as well. The potential is there for a dangerous situation in north Georgia among other places.

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

944 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>035-041000-

/O.CON.KFFC.FA.A.0006.130504T1200Z-130506T0000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-

NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...

ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...

LAWRENCEVILLE

944 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND

NORTHWEST GEORGIA.

* FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

TONIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH

ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...

WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE

MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN TO

ATLANTA TO DANIELSVILLE WHERE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE

EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

* LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN

REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS...

DITCHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH

DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MOST

LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

WITH THE WET PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT

FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND STRUCTURES NEARBY...

ESPECIALLY THOSE CREEKS AND RIVERS THAT WERE IN FLOOD EARLIER

THIS WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON

CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE

FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE

PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You don't have a clue. This includes the city of Atlanta. Please see the most recent model runs back two posts as well. The potential is there for a dangerous situation in north Georgia among other places.

944 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND

NORTHWEST GEORGIA.

* FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

TONIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH

ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...

WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE

MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN TO

ATLANTA TO DANIELSVILLE WHERE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE

EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

* LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN

REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS...

DITCHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH

DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MOST

LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

WITH THE WET PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT

FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND STRUCTURES NEARBY...

ESPECIALLY THOSE CREEKS AND RIVERS THAT WERE IN FLOOD EARLIER

THIS WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON

CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE

FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE

PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Umm no. This includes HALF the city of Atlanta. All areas in the city of Atlanta south of I-20 are not in the watch, including the airport.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Umm no. This includes HALF the city of Atlanta. All areas in the city of Atlanta south of I-20 are not in the watch, including the airport.

Atlanta is in the watch, read the above again I included the list of cities. It doesn't matter though it is semantics As i said before the potential is there for a dangerous situation and much more than 2" for metro Atlanta. I have presented you with facts and model images. I can lead a horse to water but can't make him drink.

I see a Darwin Award in your future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, Meteostar is offering me around 2.8, so I hope some trains can find my yard.  I'd like to see a lot more than that.  Sure am loving this spring...best in years and years...and it just keeps giving.  Had great winds today, and it's in the 50's now.  Hard to beat that for May, but I'm expecting to see 40's coming up.  Shiny!!!  T

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GSP's overnight matches up well with what Robert posted.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
UPGLIDE STRENGTHENS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW
UPSTATE...NE GEORGIA...AND THE SRN MTNS OF NC. TEMPS WILL FALL
SLOWLY.

BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...A LARGE AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WILL
ROLL SLOWLY EAST FROM THE OZARKS TO NORTHERN MS. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL FALL UNDER ITS CONSIDERABLE
INFLUENCE STARTING LATER TODAY. ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...DPVA...AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE 850MB PROG IS MOST IMPRESSIVE AND RATHER
ANOMALOUS WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY 30-40 KT WIND THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
THE FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NC
PIEDMONT ZONES E OF I-77...WHERE A LIKELY POP WILL SUFFICE THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THINK IT WISE TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE REST OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS...AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON QPF. THE NC MTNS WILL BE UNDER MORE
OF A THREAT OF LANDSLIDES WITH THIS EVENT WITH THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING MORE FAVORABLE AFTER LAST WEEKENDS WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WILL BE FEATURED IN THE FLOOD WATCH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 220 AM EST SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NRN MISSISSIPPI MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND 00Z
MONDAY...OVER ATLANTA AT 12Z MONDAY...OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AT 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN CROSSING SRN SOUTH CAROLINA VERY EARLY TUESDAY.

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW
AND ENHANCE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPSLOPE EFFECT AGAINST THE
SE FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.

THE NAM MODEL HAS THE MOST INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 600 CAPE OVER THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS ONLY HAS 100 TO 200 CAPE
ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD. THE NAM CONTINUES THE LEVEL OF CAPE
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT SWINGS THE FOCUS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND RAINFALL SLOWLY NORTHEAST. GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 600 TO 1000 CAPE FROM NE GA TO FAYETTEVILLE AREA
AND GFS HAS IT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NC PIEDMONT. EITHER WAY...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD ERUPT LATE MONDAY WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SUPPORTING SOLAR SURFACE HEATING AND CREATING THE HIGHER
LAPSE RATES. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GFS HAS AROUND 600 CAPE
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NE GA EARLY SUNDAY...AROUND I-26 LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN NRN FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE IS AT 10 FEET NOW AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN LESS THAN 2 DAYS WILL PUSH THE RIVER AT LEAST TO FLOOD
STAGE. OTHER RIVERS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND MAY REQUIRE FLOOD
WARNINGS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have the video recorder ready.

May be canceling the trip? trying to decide??? I was going to do some painting on my cousin house while there, but if it's going to rain three or four days no use in me going. Plus the kids will have nothing to do with it raining, we plan on taking 4 wheelers to ride on carova beach (that's where his house is) So rain sorta ruins all plans!!! Be driving down Monday, So- Tue,Wed,Thur is the main days I need dry weather. Will it rain most of the time or just scattered showers? That's the million dollar question!!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tell me this wasnt a pre-planned fishing trip! 

 

On another note my beans I planted 3 weeks ago look as good Ive ever seen. Not gung ho on 2-4 inches of rain the next few days. I delayed planting my cucumbers and squash until about 9 days ago. Still no sign they've germinated.

No not a pre-planned fishing trip.. But I have been known to fish while down there! lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long range GFS is very wet. Over 8 inches depicted for KCHA, with 5 of it coming from the current system. I still think it may be too low with it.

I was literally just about to come and say that the long range GFS was very wet as soon as I checked it but you beat me to it.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...