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May 2013 Pattern and Discussion


metalicwx366

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 By the way, I'm thinking about starting a BB campaign for funds to get me a new abacus. The one I have is starting to get old. I think it is going to be 3,000 years old soon..

Thanks for that!  You, sir, do fine work on such an old device.  Might I suggest quipu knots?

  So....if I understand this correctly, if it isn't above 86 for a high by July 1, I can expect low 90's for the high's the rest of the summer?  Man, that would be stellar.  I believe we can accomplish this feat with a string of tropical rain producers, keeping us cloudy, cool, and wet.  I'll set the moles to it!  After record breaking heat for the last few summers and winters, I think we deserve record breaking cool for the next few decades.  I think the blame can be placed on the wretched sun spots appearing again.  They need to be minimized.  I'll set the moles to that too!   Also, there must be some research into the effects of noctilucent clouds on these things!  Quipu knots will help in that, I think.  T

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 Well, my abacus doth saith that there is a moderate correlation between the highest reached in May/June and the highest reached in Jul-Sep. at KATL. If the highest in May/June were to be 91 or lower, that would bode well for the chances for the highest in July-Sep. being 96 or lower. This is based on a study I did that covers 1950-2012.

 

 There were 12 times (about one every five years...last one was in 2005) when the highest in May/June was 91 or lower (all were 88-91) vs. the normal of ~94. For ALL 12 of these, the highest in Jul-Sep. was 96 or lower (vs. the normal of ~96.5). More impressively, half (6) of these were 92 or lower. There have been only 9 years since 1950 with the highest in Jul.-Sep. being 92 or lower. So, 6 of the 9 instances of the highest in Jul-Sep. being 92 or lower were when the highest in May-June was 91 or lower.

 

 The last three years for which the highest in Jul-Sep. was 94 or lower (2005, 2003, 2001) had a May-June highest of 91 or lower.

 

 By the way, I'm thinking about starting a BB campaign for funds to get me a new abacus. The one I have is starting to get old. I think it is going to be 3,000 years old soon..

 

 Update: To this point, the highest at KATL has been 89. Forecasts I've seen seem to indicate that KATL might even be able to avoid 90 through 6/11 or so but it will be close this weekend. If KATL can avoid 92+ through 6/30, it would bode well for the chance for a not too hot Jul-Sep. per the analog based stats. Keep hope alive (for those who don't want the high heat)!

 

 Tony, we may need the moles to help out however they can. I think I heard that some mysterious group of moles was supposedly responsible for the Little Ice Age, when the sun's Maunder Minimum of the 1600-1700's occurred. You know anything about this? I'm suspecting that this group may be your moles' great, great, great, great, great, etc...grandmoles. Talk to your moles and let me know anything they decide to say about this. Much appreciated!

 

 Edit:

By the way, I just found out that the name "Maunder" is derived from the word "mole". Some Greek guy who always carries a bottle of Windex with him told me this and also said that the English word "mole" is derived from the Greek word "molos". Hmm.....VERY interesting! Then again, I suspect this Greek guy may be full of "bollockos". Bevos would know.

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 Update: To this point, the highest at KATL has been 89. Forecasts I've seen seem to indicate that KATL might even be able to avoid 90 through 6/11 or so but it will be close this weekend. If KATL can avoid 92+ through 6/30, it would bode well for the chance for a not too hot Jul-Sep. per the analog based stats. Keep hope alive (for those who don't want the high heat)!

 

 Tony, we may need the moles to help out however they can. I think I heard that some mysterious group of moles was supposedly responsible for the Little Ice Age, when the sun's Maunder Minimum of the 1600-1700's occurred. You know anything about this? I'm suspecting that this group may be your moles' great, great, great, great, great, etc...grandmoles. Talk to your moles and let me know anything they decide to say about this. Much appreciated!

 

 Edit:

By the way, I just found out that the name "Maunder" is derived from the word "mole". Some Greek guy who always carries a bottle of Windex with him told me this and also said that the English word "mole" is derived from the Greek word "molos". Hmm.....VERY interesting! Then again, I suspect this Greek guy may be full of "bollockos". Bevos would know.

 

 Maunder was commenting on earlier work by Sporer, Wolfe and Clerke amongst others, and cited the absence of aurora coinciding with the dearth of sun spots as a contributing factor to the cool down.  Coincidentally, Sporer, Wolfe, and Clerke were prominent druggists at the turn of the last century, dispensing laudanum for teething babies, which made said babies meander about the floor, and the infants  were said to be blind as moles when so dosed.  Concerned mothers were said to have cut back on the drops given, to try to keep the meander at a minimum.  That is the only correlation I can find thus far.  But I'm still on it, never you mind, lol.  T

 

Oh, yeah, the weather part....I've only reached 86, and that on two occasions.  So my chances are better in my estimation of being cooler than hotlanta, as I was several degrees cooler during the  last major heat wave.  An island of cool, as it were, lol.

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 Update: To this point, the highest at KATL has been 89. Forecasts I've seen seem to indicate that KATL might even be able to avoid 90 through 6/11 or so but it will be close this weekend. If KATL can avoid 92+ through 6/30, it would bode well for the chance for a not too hot Jul-Sep. per the analog based stats. Keep hope alive (for those who don't want the high heat)!

 

 Tony, we may need the moles to help out however they can. I think I heard that some mysterious group of moles was supposedly responsible for the Little Ice Age, when the sun's Maunder Minimum of the 1600-1700's occurred. You know anything about this? I'm suspecting that this group may be your moles' great, great, great, great, great, etc...grandmoles. Talk to your moles and let me know anything they decide to say about this. Much appreciated!

 

 Edit:

By the way, I just found out that the name "Maunder" is derived from the word "mole". Some Greek guy who always carries a bottle of Windex with him told me this and also said that the English word "mole" is derived from the Greek word "molos". Hmm.....VERY interesting! Then again, I suspect this Greek guy may be full of "bollockos". Bevos would know.

Etymonline says no: http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?allowed_in_frame=0&search=mole&searchmode=none

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Well, foo! I spent some time over the past few days trying to determine the last time this neck of the woods never topped 90 in May ... and I learn that the best answer is either "I don't know" or "check back issues of the Fayetteville Observer. Seems the NWS didn't begin compiling daily info for dear ol' Faynam until less that a decade ago, and the previous keeper of daily info, the local public utility, tossed the records when the NWS took over.

 

So, while it's no problem to find the specific temp for a specific date, finding all temps for all days in May would require an unholy amount of time ... and the splitting headach that accompanies microfilm research. Ugh!

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Well, foo! I spent some time over the past few days trying to determine the last time this neck of the woods never topped 90 in May ... and I learn that the best answer is either "I don't know" or "check back issues of the Fayetteville Observer. Seems the NWS didn't begin compiling daily info for dear ol' Faynam until less that a decade ago, and the previous keeper of daily info, the local public utility, tossed the records when the NWS took over.

 

So, while it's no problem to find the specific temp for a specific date, finding all temps for all days in May would require an unholy amount of time ... and the splitting headach that accompanies microfilm research. Ugh!

2009 It hit 90 (and only 90) several times in the last decade, but...

 

1990 was the last time it didn't break 89, the high was 89 on 16th & 17th and 19th of May. From weatherspark.com

 

There's probably an easier way to do this but I don't know it.

 

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