May 2013 Pattern and Discussion

[metalicwx366]

Well we are getting ready to leave the boring month of April and enter May. May definitely looks more interesting than April currently. We will have a much more unsettled pattern giving way to cooler temps with rain for the majority during the last week of April and first of May. Also looking at some of the models, there is the potential for a hybrid/subtropical type of system to form around the SE coast. This mornings GFS runs have backed off on that idea but the Euro sure hasn't. Euro has an aggressive 996mb storm right on the coast of FL and just moves east toward the bahamas after that. Will be interesting to see if it still shows that.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I'm more interested in seeing if a low can cut off over the Great Lakes next weekend. If it does, it could create some rather chilly conditions for parts of the East Coast, right on schedule with what we've seen in March & April. I'm not really enthused with the hybrid system possibility, but there is the chance one could form, since it does fit climo. There will be plenty of energy and moisture left over from this weekends stalled front to spin up something. I'd like to see more of the energy consolidated over the Bahamas before I give it a better chance.

[icebreaker5221]

Wow at the 12Z GFS.  850 temps < 0 for N. Florida in May, with days and days of rain for NC.  Nice.

[mackerel_sky]

Well we are getting ready to leave the boring month of April and enter May. May definitely looks more interesting than April currently. We will have a much more unsettled pattern giving way to cooler temps with rain for the majority during the last week of April and first of May. Also looking at some of the models, there is the potential for a hybrid/subtropical type of system to form around the SE coast. This mornings GFS runs have backed off on that idea but the Euro sure hasn't. Euro has an aggressive 996mb storm right on the coast of FL and just moves east toward the bahamas after that. Will be interesting to see if it still shows that.

. D*mn Wilkes , why not start the June thread while you're at it!? The upcoming pattern looks wet and normal to below temps the next 10 days. But let's finish April first!

[metalicwx366]

. D*mn Wilkes , why not start the June thread while you're at it!? The upcoming pattern looks wet and normal to below temps the next 10 days. But let's finish April first!

Lol what else is happening in April that interests you?

[GaWx]

Wow at the 12Z GFS.  850 temps < 0 for N. Florida in May, with days and days of rain for NC.  Nice.

 

 OMG, folks, the 12Z Goofy. OMG! Wow, what a beautiful sight for cold lovers. We need to keep Tony from seeing this run. He won't just be dancing, he'll go absolutely batsh*t!

 

 Of course, most of us know that this is still in Goofy lala land (days 7-9) and that the model has a notorious cold bias this far out. So,we know better than to believe anything close to this cold will actually verify. However, nobody said we couldn't dream and crazier things in the wacky world of wx have occurred such as the SE US accumulating snowfall of 4/25/1910. So, I'm all for keeping hope alive while still keeping expectations realistic. So, without further ado and ****FWIW****, it has the following crazy stuff (I can't wait to see MeteoStar lol):

 

- Clown has 1"+ of snow for Knoxville, Tri-Cities, Asheville, and Clayton (GA) and sig. snow through all of the nearby mountains

- Record threatening lows in the 30's 5/3-4 many well inland areas with freezes in/near the mountain areas.

- Record threatening low highs 40's/50's many well inland areas 5/3

 

  Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available.

[icebreaker5221]

 OMG, folks, the 12Z Goofy. OMG! Wow, what a beautiful sight. We need to keep Tony from seeing this run. He won't just be dancing, he'll go absolutely batsh*t!

 

 Of course, most of us know that this is still in Goofy lala land (days 7-9) and that the model has a notorious cold bias this far out. So,we know better than to believe anything close to this cold will actually verify. However, nobody said we couldn't dream and crazier things in the wacky world of wx have occurred such as the SE US accumulating snowfall of 4/25/1910. So, I'm all for keeping hope alive while still keeping expectations realistic. So, without further ado and ****FWIW****, it has the following crazy stuff (I can't wait to see MeteoStar lol):

 

- Clown has 1"+ of snow for Knoxville, Tri-Cities, Asheville, and Clayton (GA) and sig. snow through all of the nearby mountains

- Record threatening lows in the 30's 5/3-4 many well inland areas with freezes in/near the mountain areas.

- Record threatening low highs 40's/50's many well inland areas 5/4

 

  Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available.

 

 

For the record, 850s get below 0 in FL by 162 hrs so it's not necessarily la-la-land, but I won't believe it unless the Euro comes on board. 

[GaWx]

For the record, 850s get below 0 in FL by 162 hrs so it's not necessarily la-la-land, but I won't believe it unless the Euro comes on board. 

 

 Your point is a good one and I agree that it isn't real far out (like days 10+), but I'd still consider days 7-9 borderline lala land for the GFS, especially when it has record cold threats, is much colder than the Euro, and is the coldest GFS recent run though the 6Z GFS is almost as cold and is even colder in some areas. I agree with you that the not cold biased Euro needs to come on board. The GFS's general idea of the cutoff low in the vicinity of the SE US could verify, but the odds would favor it not being as cold as this run shows imo.

[superjames1992]

The 12z GFS clown is quite bizarre.  I doubt the clown would verify even if the 12z GFS verified, but still.  The 12z GFS does have sub-freezing temperatures in the mountains (even at the surface), though so it may legitimately show some wintry love there.

 

[superjames1992]

The way the 850 line dips south of the low and wraps around on the 12z GFS is kind of Sandy-like.

[GaWx]

Here we go. Time for model wars! The 12Z Euro is like night and day in the SE US days 7-10 vs. the 12Z GFS. Instead of a very cold closed upper level low producing record cold and snows in and near the mountains, it has a hybrid storm and very heavy rainfall centered over SC lmao! Can you say "small differences"? How does one determine a compromise forecast lol?

[buckeyefan1]

Here we go. Time for model wars! The 12Z Euro is like night and day in the SE US days 7-10 vs. the 12Z GFS. Instead of a very cold closed upper level low producing record cold and snows in and near the mountains, it has a hybrid storm and very heavy rainfall centered over SC lmao! Can you say "small differences"? How does one determine a compromise forecast lol?

You know that won't happen, but it would be sweet if it did  

[metalicwx366]

You know that won't happen, but it would be sweet if it did

The Euro is much more reliable and been very consistent with this solution than the damn GFS. I'll go with the Euro and say some type of heavy rain and wind event for the SE tropical or non tropical.

[WilkesboroDude]

May is 6 days away I am not even this early man.

[metalicwx366]

May is 6 days away I am not even this early man.

Says the one who just created the May banter thread. Chill out bro. Lol

[CandymanColumbusGA]

 

I love how people latch onto the 12Z GFS but disregard the 00Z. The 0Z had it over the Great Lakes, much closer to the Euro solution and much closer to prior solutions. I've been keeping an eye on this possibility since the GFS had an ULL in the Northeast earlier this week. IMHO, the 12Z GFS is out to lunch a bit, especially taking account of the notable cold bias of the GFS. Still, someone in the East is going to be rather cool next weekend. We shall see. 

 

Still, the  in me loves seeing the 850mb 0C line make it to the northern GoM.  

 

The 18Z is coming in and looks to keep the ULL further north. Even though the ULL is farther north, it still brings the 0C line to north Florida. Quite impressive for the end of May. Where was this during winter?  

[Met1985]

Lol the 00z GFS hs a strip of snow in North AL and into TN on May 3rd. Wow what a year makes.

[Met1985]

Lol then the way the system moves looks like a great shot for upslope snow in the mountains. Wow in May! Also I will believe it about 24 hours out but hey just seeing this on the models for May is pretty remarkable.

[DCMetroWinston]

Mike McCall ‏@WCTVMike 9h

@ryanmaue GFS Cut-off in the SE days later loosely resembles that of May 1992. Mt. Pisgah, NC got 57" of snow out of that one.

[dsaur]

Well, two of the things on my must see list are snow in May, followed by the much less probable (unless I get to see the new Maunder Minimum)  snow in June.   Get the 12z cutoff to come slamming the cold in here and I think me and the CandyMan see stuff no living Ga residents have ever seen, lol.  It could happen!  CMan saw hail, and until this year he had only read about it in books, lol.  Some of the things I'm reading says melting ice can up the chances for cold weather.  I'm getting out all my ice trays now...get the ball rolling, lol.  T

[metalicwx366]

Majority of the models seem to be backing off on the idea of the subtropical development. Cmc shows a tropical storm Alberto redux which leads me to believe that pattern still could be conducive for tropical cyclone development off the SE coast. NAvgem and jma are just show weaker versions of what the CMC has. But we need to get the GFS and Euro back on board. Cmc actually is showing what the GFS had a couple of days ago.

[Met1985]

New Euro weeklies still show May as cooler than average and wetter than normal.

[metalicwx366]

This is looking lame. Models showing less and less rain with each run but 2 inches is still a good amount of rain. The hybrid system is gone and the cut off want to stay in the Midwest giving a foot plus of snow somehow. I like the extreme runs it was showing a few days ago with the spring version of Sandy.

I still have thunderstorms in the forecast the next 7 days though. Could this be the start of rainy season? Average start is May 21st.

[metalicwx366]

The 6z GFS moves the cutoff low toward the SE in the long range. If it was right, I would have rain in the forecast the next 15 days and NC and SC and VA get 10+ inches of rain.

[Isopycnic]

Lol what else is happening in April that interests you?

The leaf out, lmao

[metalicwx366]

The leaf out, lmao

We are 98% leafed out here.

12z GFS looks much different than the 06 and 00z. The cutoff low barely develops and it tries to develop a very weak area of low pressure off the SE coast.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Robert just posted an update on his site highlighting the unsettled weather over the Central and Eastern US over the next 7-10 days...

[icebreaker5221]

Funny how just 2 days ago, a southern states snowstorm, a very heavy (4"+) rainstorm for the Middle Atlantic, and a respectable subtropical cyclone were all on the table depending upon your model of choice.  Instead of a major event, now it's looking more like a high-end moderate extratropical cyclone for the Ohio valley.  The potential for something subtropical to develop in the Gulf or even east of FL is still on the table, but not quite as strong a signal as the ECMWF once advertised. 

 

Oh well, I'll take 4 days in a row of scattered thunderstorms. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

This is looking lame. Models showing less and less rain with each run but 2 inches is still a good amount of rain. The hybrid system is gone and the cut off want to stay in the Midwest giving a foot plus of snow somehow. I like the extreme runs it was showing a few days ago with the spring version of Sandy.

I still have thunderstorms in the forecast the next 7 days though. Could this be the start of rainy season? Average start is May 21st.

Rainy season ? Isn't rainy season winter and spring ? Summer is more like dry season here.

[GaWx]

Rainy season ? Isn't rainy season winter and spring ? Summer is more like dry season here.

 

S GA is somewhat different from N GA. Climowise, S GA isn't as wet as N GA in winter (due to average storm tracks bringing more precip. to N GA) whereas S GA is wetter than N GA in summer (due to more thunderstorm activity in S GA due largely to more numerous moist airmass popups but also a little due to more associated with tropical moisture in S GA vs. N GA).