400 ppm

[TerryM]

Well if Stephen Goddard says it, it must be so.  When a person with his credentials and reputation draws lines and dots and labels them it's hard to imagine that they aren't of great importance. 

 

I seem to have misplaced Goddard's CV - perhaps someone could enlighten me.

 

Terry

[AvantHiatus]

How is that glass house working out for ya Terry?  What if anything has the hysterical side of AGW supporters been right about?   Even those with much more moderate views (vs the hysterical) on AGW have admitted their predictions haven't worked out. 

Of course there is a environmental crisis that is worth focusing on. You are cherry picking data to claim that AGW is not as serious as originally claimed including using a Decadal temperature trend correlated with only one variable (CO2). Also, anyone living along the coasts should be concerned about such warming as even a modest amount (1 degree C by 2100) will result in 1-3 feet of sea level rise causing problems with erosion and storm surge. There is also a growing crisis of ocean acidificiation that will greatly hurt marine ecosystems.

 

Just wait until the el nino cycles and the +PDO come back and you will see my point. You are oblivious to current world events and your ignorance shines brighter than the intelligent, well-forumated ideas of respectable climate experts that post here.

[ben4vols]

Of course there is a environmental crisis that is worth focusing on. You are cherry picking data to claim that AGW is not as serious as originally claimed including using a Decadal temperature trend correlated with only one variable (CO2). Also, anyone living along the coasts should be concerned about such warming as even a modest amount (1 degree C by 2100) will result in 1-3 feet of sea level rise causing problems with erosion and storm surge. There is also a growing crisis of ocean acidificiation that will greatly hurt marine ecosystems.

 

Just wait until the el nino cycles and the +PDO come back and you will see my point. You are oblivious to current world events and your ignorance shines brighter than the intelligent, well-forumated ideas of respectable climate experts that post here.

 

No one is cherry picking data.  The data was only given to calm down the typical hysteria by Terry.  He seems to think we are on the verge of some kind of crisis because we have now reached 400ppm.  In reality there is no looming crisis, whether CO2 is 400ppm, 350ppm or 500ppm.  I always enjoy the alarmists who say "just wait until the next el nino" or in your case you even add the "+PDO" cherry on top.  Why are some of you so eager to see another monster nino?  So you can use a natural cycle to promote more of your nightmare type warming scenario's?  Hansen has been predicting the next monster nino for years but the poor guy had to retire without seeing another one. 

[ben4vols]

I seem to have misplaced Goddard's CV - perhaps someone could enlighten me.

 

Terry

 

Seems you haven't misplaced your character assassination manual however. 

[AvantHiatus]

No one is cherry picking data.  The data was only given to calm down the typical hysteria by Terry.  He seems to think we are on the verge of some kind of crisis because we have now reached 400ppm.  In reality there is no looming crisis, whether CO2 is 400ppm, 350ppm or 500ppm.  I always enjoy the alarmists who say "just wait until the next el nino" or in your case you even add the "+PDO" cherry on top.  Why are some of you so eager to see another monster nino?  So you can use a natural cycle to promote more of your nightmare type warming scenario's?  Hansen has been predicting the next monster nino for years but the poor guy had to retire without seeing another one. 

El Nino's are natural events. They have nothing to do with AGW and we are currently in a period that favor la nina. There is in fact some degree of threat through AGW through drought, etc. It's not a "doomsday crisis" but I do not believe Terry was stating that. Also, i'm not eager for anything and am just objectively stating my ideas on the current climate regime.

 

People are also using natural factors and cycles to claim cooling as well such as solar activity. Perhaps we can agree on one thing and that is natural factors can modulate the speed of AGW. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

El Nino's are natural events. They have nothing to do with AGW and we are currently in a period that favor la nina. There is in fact some degree of threat through AGW through drought, etc. It's not a "doomsday crisis" but I do not believe Terry was stating that. Also, i'm not eager for anything and am just objectively stating my ideas on the current climate regime.

 

People are also using natural factors and cycles to claim cooling as well such as solar activity. Perhaps we can agree on one thing and that is natural factors can modulate the speed of AGW. 

 

 

The intelligent or less ignorantly biased people in these discussions know a level of cooling likely in the .2C range so far during the end of the +PDO into the bottom of a negative one add in solar.  It's impossible to say how much we should have cooled but it hasn't happened.  The signs were there it almost had enough but it was stopped by another strengthening force.

 

There is no law that says GHG forcing increase is stronger than natural changes at any given point with the current set of feedback's.

 

Of course this shows predicting warmer from 1999-now didn't happen.  So you crunch the data as to why and formulate new predictions. 

 

 

Someone should model a 1998 super nino or the 2002-2005 NINO period with the most recent ENSO neutral period as the baseline and see what happens.  Either way it's going to be overcome. The Earth has still seen an increase in incoming energy, even if the amount of energy being held is not going up as fast as it was, indicating something else has caused more energy to be sent out or blocked by a different factor.

[AvantHiatus]

The intelligent or less ignorantly biased people in these discussions know a level of cooling likely in the .2C range so far during the end of the +PDO into the bottom of a negative one add in solar.  It's impossible to say how much we should have cooled but it hasn't happened.  The signs were there it almost had enough but it was stopped by another strengthening force.

 

There is no law that says GHG forcing increase is stronger than natural changes at any given point with the current set of feedback's.

 

Of course this shows predicting warmer from 1999-now didn't happen.  So you crunch the data as to why and formulate new predictions. 

 

 

Someone should model a 1998 super nino or the 2002-2005 NINO period with the most recent ENSO neutral period as the baseline and see what happens.  Either way it's going to be overcome. The Earth has still seen an increase in incoming energy, even if the amount of energy being held is not going up as fast as it was, indicating something else has caused more energy to be sent out or blocked by a different factor.

To be honest, I don't think the Earth has cooled in the past decade, 2010 basically evened out the trend from 2006 to 2009 and tied with 2005 and 1998 as the warmest years on record. Granted 2011 and 2012 were colder years than 2010 but not as cold as 2008. That's a side issue and your point still stands, clearly other factors have prevented additional warming or the thermal energy is being sequestered into the deep oceans as according to the Hansen theory.

 

We are talking tenths of a degree here, not enough to establish a trend - Stagnation.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

To be honest, I don't think the Earth has cooled in the past decade, 2010 basically evened out the trend from 2006 to 2009 and tied with 2005 and 1998 as the warmest years on record. Granted 2011 and 2012 were colder years than 2010. That's a side issue and your point still stands, clearly other factors have prevented additional warming or the thermal energy is being sequestered into the deep oceans as according to the Hansen theory.

Bingo! Alot of the warming has been seen into SSTs and arctic warming. I have a feeling once the PDO switches back to the positive phase, and we also begin to see more El Ninos once this occurs, that is when we will see the big rise in global temperatures. Plus by the time this occurs, the arctic will have almost if not completely melted out during the summer months. Once the arctic melts out (approx 2025) and a switch to a +PDO, this is when the big show will resume.

 

 

If we are setting global temperture records with La Ninas (warmest La Nina on record), wait until an El Nino rolls around again!

[Jonger]

To be honest, I don't think the Earth has cooled in the past decade, 2010 basically evened out the trend from 2006 to 2009 and tied with 2005 and 1998 as the warmest years on record. Granted 2011 and 2012 were colder years than 2010. That's a side issue and your point still stands, clearly other factors have prevented additional warming or the thermal energy is being sequestered into the deep oceans as according to the Hansen theory.

Bingo! Alot of the warming has been seen into SSTs and arctic warming. I have a feeling once the PDO switches back to the positive phase, and we also begin to see more El Ninos once this occurs, that is when we will see the big rise in global temperatures. Plus by the time this occurs, the arctic will have almost if not completely melted out during the summer months. Once the arctic melts out (approx 2025) and a switch to a +PDO, this is when the big show will resume.

 

 

If we are setting global temperture records with La Ninas (warmest La Nina on record), wait until an El Nino rolls around again!

Surface temps? Didn't you get the memo, the heat is buried in Davy Jones locker... Not the surface... Right?

[AvantHiatus]

In the infamous words of Terry - Here they come again right out of the woodwork.

 

http://science.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/11/17708881-where-did-global-warming-go-the-deep-ocean-experts-say?lite

[forkyfork]

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Stop being a denialist forky! Lol

[Jonger]

 

That shows me a steady rise since records begin (at least on that graph), do you have anything that shows pre-1960... So I can see when that started rising?

[ORH_wxman]

That shows me a steady rise since records begin (at least on that graph), do you have anything that shows pre-1960... So I can see when that started rising?

 

 

0-2000m OHC data is sparse as it is...less reliable than 0-700m. Even if you take it at face value, its interesting that it has slowed in comparison to the 1990s despite sfc temps slowing too. The slowdown coincides with the ARGO era (2003) where better coverage was available.

 

I'm sure we'll see several new papers on OHC coming out in the next 2-3 years as we get beyond 10 years of ARGO era data.

[TerryM]

Is anyone reminded of the Monty Python skit where they insist that the parrot is alive?

 

The canary in the mine of global warming has long been the Arctic sea ice. It's not dead, but it won't make a recovery and as long as they can prop up it's head and emit a few chirps they'll insist that all is well.

 

The denier's arguments melted away in the Arctic & no clever phrase or sophistry can resurrect them. - although the arguments now evoking the same humorous reflexes that "Baghdad Bob" and the Python crew elicited when insisting that Saddam was near victory, or the bird wasn't dead.

 

Terry

[SVT450R]

Is anyone reminded of the Monty Python skit where they insist that the parrot is alive?

 

The canary in the mine of global warming has long been the Arctic sea ice. It's not dead, but it won't make a recovery and as long as they can prop up it's head and emit a few chirps they'll insist that all is well.

 

The denier's arguments melted away in the Arctic & no clever phrase or sophistry can resurrect them. - although the arguments now evoking the same humorous reflexes that "Baghdad Bob" and the Python crew elicited when insisting that Saddam was near victory, or the bird wasn't dead.

 

Terry

Since global temperatures aren't going as planned the alarmist need something to hold on to for their CAGW theories.