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May 2013 General Discussion/Obs


wisconsinwx

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Works every time. :D

Had 0.99" for a 24 hour total through 4:00pm at LAF, which doubled the total May rainfall. Adding on right now.

I'm not saying it will happen, but if stuff evolves in a favorable way it's not terribly hard to imagine us making a run at average May rainfall.

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A lot of people around here are freaking out over the forecasts of an additional 4-6" of rain over the next few days.  Local TV stations hitting it pretty hard, as they should since the QC itself had locations already picking up over 5".  Iowa is pretty quiet at the moment, but should light up like an xmas tree later on this evening once the LLJ reactivates the elevated warm front.  Remnant storm complexes will roll in later tonight from the Plains as well. 

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The RAP is consistently showing the heavy stuff tonight beginning in southern Iowa and lifting northeast.  The WPC has adjusted the heavy band north a bit and now has it setting up from sw through east-central Iowa.  DVN is talking about a possible major flash flood event tonight in their area.

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A lot of people around here are freaking out over the forecasts of an additional 4-6" of rain over the next few days.  Local TV stations hitting it pretty hard, as they should since the QC itself had locations already picking up over 5".  Iowa is pretty quiet at the moment, but should light up like an xmas tree later on this evening once the LLJ reactivates the elevated warm front.  Remnant storm complexes will roll in later tonight from the Plains as well. 

 

 

yeah, another heavy round is a lock for your area

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Well, according to their day one QPF discussion, WPC is riding the 12z RGEM and UKMET. They both did poorly with this evening's complex in IL and IN...whiffed in that they were too far north. RAP isn't even worth mentioning, as it remains useless. So I guess, take it for it's worth. These complexes give models and forecasters fits it seems.  

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Happy Memorial Day to all on here. Hope everyone is staying warm... lol

I'd like to say I'm getting excited for Southern Lower Michigan's first severe weather event tomorrow, but if I voice it, it likely will NOT happen. Coming from a realistic standpoint, something big is going to happen with temps in the 80's and dews near 70 moving into this COLD air mass. Seems we get the best storms with a warm front moving in.

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Well, according to their day one QPF discussion, WPC is riding the 12z RGEM and UKMET. They both did poorly with this evening's complex in IL and IN...whiffed in that they were too far north. RAP isn't even worth mentioning, as it remains useless. So I guess, take it for it's worth. These complexes give models and forecasters fits it seems.  

 

That explains it. Was wondering where they came up with that. Had not looked at those two models.

 

 

Tacked an additional 0.61" at LAF, brings the total for the past two days to 1.60". We rolling now. 

 

And lets keep it going. Both the GFS and Euro look sweet for more decent rains north of the river up into this area and back out towards the Plains.

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And lets keep it going. Both the GFS and Euro look sweet for more decent rains north of the river up into this area and back out towards the Plains.

 

Yes, let it rain. 

 

At LAF, 18.14" versus 10.30" for total precipitation to date...this year compared to last year. 

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Clouds broke up a bit earlier finally.  Didn't take long for the stratocumulus to build back up and cover the sky. 

 

First sign of elevated convection starting to take off a little south of I-80 now.  More surface-based convection also starting to take off along the IA/MO border.  Top already up to almost 40kft west of Keokuk.

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Just playing with the panorama feature on the phone, sunset here tonight in the LAF. Shot doesn't do it justice, but some nice contrasting colors...against the backdrop of freshly fallen rain. Has a late Spring/early Summer look to it. 

 

 

 

 

Somewhat hard to believe almost exactly two months ago, it looked like this... :D

 

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Geos-

 

We've been in the 50F for like 2 days now...  getting old.   I feel like i live in coastal Alaska.

 

Been like that here 5 days now for the most part. 

Yeah NW Coast on up to Alaska is like that most of the summer no doubt.

 

---

 

Nice sunset pic Chicago Wx! Would have been nice to see the sun more the last 3 days here.

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