Powerball Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Yeah I don't think the concerns powerball laid out should come to fruition on this one, the low level flow out over the Plains and eventually into this region is going to be very strong and extend far north, the warm front should blast through here with no issues. Given how fickle convection is, we ultimately won't know how this all plays out until it actually plays out But this same game has been played time and time again. The MCS, instead of following the main flow, follows the instability axis SE, thus making forecasting it all a huge pain as the outflows and mesoscale features from the MCS screws up the overall synoptic pattern. It warm front will eventually get north of the region and the warner weather/ridging will eventually arrive, it's just a matter of when. GRR and DTX mentioned this as well in their AM discussion. 000FXUS63 KDTX 251101 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 325 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEAK AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE EJECTED OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US AND ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OR WRN GREAT LAKES MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW STRENGTHENS. THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY TO ADVANCE INTO SE MI REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WHILE SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE BULLISH WITH QPF OVER SE MI MON NIGHT AND TUES...THERE IS LIKELY SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN THAT THE MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLING OF MCS PROPAGATION...WHICH COULD LEAD TO REMNANT CONVECTION BEING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS PLAN TO CARRY VERY LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW SHOULD HOWEVER LIFT A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SRN LOWER MI BY MID WEEK...MARKED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC WARM FRONT. THIS WILL JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUES THROUGH WED. 000FXUS63 KGRR 251133 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 733 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED INTO THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE...ANYWHERE FROM FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA TO NEAR THE MI/IN BORDER. THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS HAVE ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO FAR SW LOWER MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THAN SPREADS THAT INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AND AS MENTIONED THE FAR SW CWA MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED WITH TIME...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT MONDAY DOES NOT REMAIN TOTALLY DRY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN NEXT WEEK IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED. AS IN MANY OF THESE SITUATIONS...THE EFFECT OF CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPEDE ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS...SO WILL SPREAD POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...SO POPS ARE ALSO SHADED A BIT HIGHER ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Doh! Looks like a cloudy cool day after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 almost time to start a thread about the much above rainfall this year the first 5 months...can we break records or at least top 5's in many locations for the year so far at PIA as of yesterday 21.96 +8.55 or 164% of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 almost time to start a thread about the much above rainfall this year the first 5 months...can we break records or at least top 5's in many locations for the year so far at PIA as of yesterday 21.96 +8.55 or 164% of normal Meanwhile, in other parts of the subforum, dry is the word. FWA for May 0.53" -2.59" Granted we are still +1.61" for the year, but the tap has been shut off for several weeks around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I'll affirm the idea of much heavier rain totals farther westward. The first week of May I took some vacation time and saw Cataract Falls south of Greencastle in west central IN in the greatest flow of water I have ever seen it. The Illinois river was in major flood at Peoria at that time. I traveled southeast to Clifty Falls State Park by Madison and the water was in modest summer flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Miserable late May day around here. I've had over an inch of rain as the slow-moving MCS keeps on hanging on. Part of central Iowa got 3-4 inches. The WPC's latest 3-day qpf map has another 3-4 inches falling across the same area. Later in the week more heavy rain could fall as the western trough finally moves into the midwest. This is on top of very heavy rain through April into early May. Latest WPC 7-day precip forecast... yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Miserable late May day around here. I've had over an inch of rain as the slow-moving MCS keeps on hanging on. Part of central Iowa got 3-4 inches. The WPC's latest 3-day qpf map has another 3-4 inches falling across the same area. Later in the week more heavy rain could fall as the western trough finally moves into the midwest. This is on top of very heavy rain through April into early May. Latest WPC 7-day precip forecast... yikes. Question for you...has any corn sprouted... has it even been planted? I know of fields around here that still haven't been planted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Question for you...has any corn sprouted... has it even been planted? I know of fields around here that still haven't been planted... I haven't noticed if any has sprouted(haven't been out of the city much), but it has been pretty dry the last 2+ weeks so the farmers must have planted as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Sun came out partially for about 15 minutes and then thicker overcast moved in. Managed to get to 53° as of 4pm. Some people outside today, but not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Flat out miserable day. Low 50s with cold rain. Was in the upper 40s much of the day. Glad I mowed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Question for you...has any corn sprouted... has it even been planted? I know of fields around here that still haven't been planted... The farm fields around here that weren't flooded have corn up a good 6-10". Flooded fields that have recently dried out either haven't been planted yet or have been planted within the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 next MCS getting going in the high plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Frost warning issued for tonight, second night in a row. 80F and chasing a low-topped supercell three days ago and now frost warnings. Wacky spring continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Not too bad of a day here....66 and partly cloudy now....warmer and more sun today than those areas affected by that MCS slowly sliding southeast across IL having drenched IA this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Finished the day with 1.18" of rain. The trend of nearly all our rain this year coming from stratiform events continues. DVN hasn't issued a flood watch for tonight because they are not sure where the next MCS will track. It's freezing today, but each of the next three days should see a 10 degree bump in the temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Big gradient in rainfall between the QC and here due to very dry air fighting the heavier rainfall off much of the day. Only 0.30" here, while MLI has had over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 No rain here all day, but clouds/cool and a little windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Topped out at 60 in the LAF. City pools here and in WL opened for the season today. Hypothermia complimentary with purchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2013 Author Share Posted May 26, 2013 The last two Memorial Days were scorching, which is relatively rare around these parts. This year, however, it should be just about perfect, though a bit cool for ideal grilling weather I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Tomorrow doesn't promise to be too much better then today. East winds instead of NE winds should help it get a little warmer though. Sunday might be the 3rd day with a low under 40° Wonder how rare this is for the last part of May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 The H8 front lit up again overnight across Iowa(potential development area farther southwest remained capped). Once again it has been the area 2-3 counties to my west and sw that have been hit hardest. Several inches of rain has fallen in a few spots over there the last two mornings. The rain has struggled a bit more to make its way into CR today, but it's coming down pretty good now and there's a big complex now moving across Iowa. It may weaken some by the time it gets here. This is still just the start of a potential week of heavy rain for Iowa. The WPC has the entire state getting 5-7 inches on top of what has fallen the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 0.00" here since midnight. 0.30" yesterday. Rain continues to rapidly dry up just as it gets in here. No complaints here though. We've had over a foot of rain since early April, with most of that falling in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Can't wait until the heavy rains move in We don't need anymore rain...especially SE MN.... Chilly out there this morning. Still no rain, but next week looks awfully wet and active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Can't buy any good rainfall here this May. Currently at 0.99" -2.36" at LAF for the month. Not holding my breath that any of these MCSs will produce much of anything locally. First 90º of the season looks probable on Wednesday and/or Thursday. MEX has 88º and 87º respectively. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 I really feel for all the people who are spending Memorial Day weekend camping around here... gloomy, wet, breezy, 48-50 degrees all weekend. It's the unofficial start to summer, yet it feels more like late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Point for today has been dropped back to 60, but even that is probably still too warm. Still in the low 50s with more rain complexes festering to the west. Tomorrow's forecast calls for mid 70s, but there's a high bust potential with that as well. Just a miserable holiday weekend for outdoor activities. Tomorrow was supposed to be a pool party/cookout. Now it looks like we'll be grilling out under umbrellas with hoodies on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2013 Author Share Posted May 26, 2013 Many models now spitting out impressive rain totals in the next 48-60 hours. GFS and NAM both up around 2", and the LSX WRF looks active with MCS activity as well. I was skeptical of how far east these MCS' would track, but I guess it is looking better to get some of the action as early as overnight tonight, and especially tomorrow night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Up to 57 with partly sunny skies. An improvement over yesterday, but definitely not beach or pool weather. - unless you got a heated pool! It seems like this is the slowest starts to consistent warm wx that I can remember. Pretty wet to DLL on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Can't buy any good rainfall here this May. Currently at 0.99" -2.36" at LAF for the month. Not holding my breath that any of these MCSs will produce much of anything locally. First 90º of the season looks probable on Wednesday and/or Thursday. MEX has 88º and 87º respectively. Awful. We would basically wipe out our short term precip surplus (since March 1) if no rain falls in the next week. Still in pretty good shape if going from January 1. We might get enough rain to hold it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2013 Author Share Posted May 26, 2013 Up to 57 with partly sunny skies. An improvement over yesterday, but definitely not beach or pool weather. - unless you got a heated pool! It seems like this is the slowest starts to consistent warm wx that I can remember. Pretty wet to DLL on the 12z GFS. I'm sure the LAF guys are loving that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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