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May 2013 General Discussion/Obs


wisconsinwx

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12z GFS showing a potential major snowstorm for Central/Western Iowa, Southeast Minnesota and Western Wisconsin (including daddylonglegs).  I think the GFS is on crack.

 

Yeah, Euro shows a much different scenario.  GFS will bow to the Euro like it has the last few months.  The first 5-10 days of May are gonna suck, unless you like it cold, wet, and cloudy.

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Snippet from the DVN AFD.

 

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SIMILAR IN  
DEVELOPING AN INTENSE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS. A LARGE  
BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA WILL  
ESSENTIALLY STALL THE LOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW SETS UP SHOP WILL  
BE CRITICAL AS TO THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE DVN  
CWA AND TEMPERATURES. INITIALLY THE RAIN WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT  
BUT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THE POTENTIAL FOR  
HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT  
THERE MAY BE A BAND OF SNOW OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM MN TO  
OK. COULD EASILY BE A 20 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE BUST DEPENDING ON  
WHERE THE COLD FRONT SETS UP.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW BUT IF  
THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA AND THEN INTO  
WISCONSIN ON MAY 6. WET SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME PORTIONS OF  
THE DVN CWA DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND AVAILABLE  
MOISTURE. CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION.  
 
HAASE  

 

:axe:

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Not sure what's more funny on that snow map... the crazy snow amounts or  the Keweenaw Peninsula wiped off the map.

 

I don't want to know what Craig in Omaha is doing with that snow map.

 

That snow might even be chase worthy for the severe snobs :P

 

Only snow dweebs would chase a snowstorm.

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Not sure what's more funny on that snow map... the crazy snow amounts or  the Keweenaw Peninsula wiped off the map.

 

I don't want to know what Craig in Omaha is doing with that snow map.

 

That snow might even be chase worthy for the severe snobs :P

 

I laugh just reading this. He's probably a local tv met somewhere. He may go by the name Chad.

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Not sure what's more funny on that snow map... the crazy snow amounts or  the Keweenaw Peninsula wiped off the map.

 

I don't want to know what Craig in Omaha is doing with that snow map.

 

That snow might even be chase worthy for the severe snobs :P

 

Only snow dweebs would chase a snowstorm.

I wouldn't drive 750 miles to chase any weather. Thankfully, I can just hop on the expressway and drive 100 miles to chase heavy LES.

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meh, I'm much more likely to chase an epic snow than hit or miss I think that's a rain wrapped twister severe.

 

A couple of nights in boston snowed-in, eating, and drinking owns roving around oklahoma 

 

 

 GHD storm pretty much satisfied my need to ever want tochase a snow storm unless it was like 100" in the mountains.   Although being snowed-in in Boston would be fun with friends.

 

Bucket list still missing an epic LES event and I would also like to see (never have) a tornado.. Though this would probably excite me more than seeing a twister seeing as I've never witnessed  hail much bigger than pea size.  stolen from the western sub-forum

 

934989_10151434769529200_1059097215_n.jp

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meh, I'm much more likely to chase an epic snow than hit or miss I think that's a rain wrapped twister severe.

 

A couple of nights in boston snowed-in, eating, and drinking owns roving around oklahoma 

 

I agree.

 

No offense to those who like chasing tornadoes of course. Just not my thing, unless it's like 5 miles from my hood. And even then...

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If I was a betting man I would ride the recent seasonal trend and say NW IA through MSP to Duluth would be the target zone. Something similar to 18z only a bit further NE

+1....  I agree...  can't really bet against that with the trend..  Whatever the case, this weather has been nice and i really don't want to go back into the 40Fs for high temps, but its looking really likely :(

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