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May 2013 General Discussion/Obs


wisconsinwx

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There was a mixture of ice pellets/sleet/grapuel/wet flurries and rain showers yesterday in Toronto, even in the downtown core. The frozen precip was intense enough to result in Pearson Airport (YYZ) picking up 0.2" (0.4 cm) of snow yesterday. This is the first measurable May snowfall at YYZ since the 7th in 1989 where 0.3" (0.6 cm) fell.

 

http://past.theweathernetwork.com/snow/snowON3

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Very impressive cold this morning. DTW tied and therefore superceded the record low for today of 30F, so May 13, 2013 now ties May 13, 1971 for the coldest temp on record so late in the season for Detroit (from here on out no record lows lower than 31F, and even thats only on one day). Too bad no snow was reported at DTW yesterday. Ann Arbor ARB was the coldest spot in Michigan at 21F.

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Full out blowtorch at LAF for the first nine days of May: 62.8º +4.4º

 

How quickly things change.

 

LAF now at 59.8º +1.0º through yesterday. Big negative departure today, and then we go back the other way starting tomorrow. 

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Tomorrow promises to be a huge swing in temps compared to this morning, so I was curious to see what kind of extreme day to day May swings there have been around here in the past. I searched Mays for the LAF airport back to 1964 (lots of missing data before that). There have been 6 occurrences of a 50+ degree change in temperature from one day to the next:

May 4 1966 - low 30

May 5 1966 - high 82

May 4 1976 - low 31

May 5 1976 - high 82

May 12 1976 - low 32

May 13 1976 - high 86

May 14 1988 - low 40

May 15 1988 - high 90

May 16 1997 - low 34

May 17 1997 - high 84

May 14 2001 - low 41

May 15 2001 - high 91

As you can see, the last time that a freeze was immediately followed by a 50+ degree rise was May 12-13, 1976. With the low of 31 this morning, we would need to hit 81 tomorrow to have a 50 degree change.

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Tomorrow promises to be a huge swing in temps compared to this morning, so I was curious to see what kind of extreme day to day May swings there have been around here in the past. I searched Mays for the LAF airport back to 1964 (lots of missing data before that). There have been 6 occurrences of a 50+ degree change in temperature from one day to the next:

May 4 1966 - low 30

May 5 1966 - high 82

May 4 1976 - low 31

May 5 1976 - high 82

May 12 1976 - low 32

May 13 1976 - high 86

May 14 1988 - low 40

May 15 1988 - high 90

May 16 1997 - low 34

May 17 1997 - high 84

May 14 2001 - low 41

May 15 2001 - high 91

As you can see, the last time that a freeze was immediately followed by a 50+ degree rise was May 12-13, 1976. With the low of 31 this morning, we would need to hit 81 tomorrow to have a 50 degree change.

Meaningless stat but 3 out of those 5 years above went on to produce 100 degree days at LAF.

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Although it seems to be a low probability occurrence, the hi-res WRF NMM shows a short squall line developing in WC Wisconsin tomorrow night and then moving SE toward SE WI/NE IL.  More likely any convective activity will be confined to C and N Wisconsin but we cannot discount this possibility I guess, especially if the warm front gets hung up further south.

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Tomorrow promises to be a huge swing in temps compared to this morning, so I was curious to see what kind of extreme day to day May swings there have been around here in the past. I searched Mays for the LAF airport back to 1964 (lots of missing data before that). There have been 6 occurrences of a 50+ degree change in temperature from one day to the next:

May 4 1966 - low 30

May 5 1966 - high 82

May 4 1976 - low 31

May 5 1976 - high 82

May 12 1976 - low 32

May 13 1976 - high 86

May 14 1988 - low 40

May 15 1988 - high 90

May 16 1997 - low 34

May 17 1997 - high 84

May 14 2001 - low 41

May 15 2001 - high 91

As you can see, the last time that a freeze was immediately followed by a 50+ degree rise was May 12-13, 1976. With the low of 31 this morning, we would need to hit 81 tomorrow to have a 50 degree change.

 

NWS LOT read your mind...they posted similar info for ORD and RFD on their webpage: 

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=94567&source=0

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All the way down to 30° this morning. Luckily it wasn't below freezing hours on end - plants look unphased. 

 

One of the lastest hard frosts though.

 

Day time underperformed  though. Only 50 for a high.

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Very impressive cold this morning. DTW tied and therefore superceded the record low for today of 30F, so May 13, 2013 now ties May 13, 1971 for the coldest temp on record so late in the season for Detroit (from here on out no record lows lower than 31F, and even thats only on one day). Too bad no snow was reported at DTW yesterday. Ann Arbor ARB was the coldest spot in Michigan at 21F.

Heres the report from DTX

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
0915 AM EST MON MAY 13 2013

$

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT DETROIT MI...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEGREES WAS SET AT DETROIT MI TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1971.

I looked it up, and May 13, 1971 was actually a clear, seasonable day that got off to a cold start. DTW had a high of 70F (versus todays high of 56F). Still....as has been noted many times, in the 1960s-1970s DTW was an absolute magnet, if not epicenter, for radiational cooling. On those good radiating nights you usually couldnt find a temp lower in SE MI than DTW airport itself. With UHI those days are LONG gone and its almost the complete opposite, usually "the low was a chilly XX at DTW but most outlying areas were colder".

 

I decided to look up low temps for May 13, 1971 and compare them to May 13, 2013 at stations that have long sets of data. I think this speaks for itself...2013 was the more impressive cold morning. There have been more impressive feats in the spring at later dates (May 22, 1883 snowstorm of 5" or rain mixed with snow on May 31, 1910..but neither of those snows even saw a freezing temp) but this has to be one of the latest widespread hard freezes the area has seen.

 

Place........5-13-71 low....5-13-13 low

DTW...................30............30

DET city..............39............32

FNT.....................31............29

LAN....................33............28

UofM Ann Arbor...36............28

Monroe...............38............27

Port Huron..........34............30

Ypsilanti..............34............30

Adrian.................32............28

Dearborn............35............31

Mt Clemens.........34............31

 

Car windshield at 845am today

3548-800.jpg

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I want to marry today's weather.

 

Played 27 holes of golf in just glorious, perfect conditions. Course was in good shape, but the rough was a tad lush. 

 

Today was fantastic. Decided to golf today, rather than tomorrow... For obvious reasons. (swamp a**). Will probably have to shut the house and crank the AC for the first time this season.

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