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May 2013 General Discussion/Obs


wisconsinwx

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Nice stretch of weather lately and all...but boring as all get out. Only 0.04" of rain in the past nine days in the LAF. Looking forward to a little action at the end of this week.

Exciting times for doing anything other than tracking weather. Maybe we can luck into something decent tomorrow (severe) but not holding my breath.

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It could be worse, but this pattern looks pretty darn boring for anyone north of I-94.  Cold shot and then hot and dry with all moisture suppressed to the south.  The water table is going to be high for a while but at some point we're going to need some moisture again.

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Big temperature difference within 8 miles in Kenosha. 54° at the lakefront and 75° at ENW. 70° here, 4.25 miles inland.

 

NAM hires says heaviest rain will be a bit south of op NAM.

 

ptot60.gif

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Traverse City:

 

A CRUEL MOTHER NATURE CURVE BALL THIS WEEKEND...AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH/RIDGE AMPLIFICATIONS FORCES A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF NORTHERN ALASKA....WITH SITES SET ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NO
SHORTAGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES UP IN NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. WHILE MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR...CORE OF
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT H8 TEMPERATURES PLOWS INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING (H8 AROUND -8C TO -10C). ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STRONG UPWARD QG SUPPORT AND
FORCED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A FAST MOVING
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. FOCUS THAN TURNS TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND INSTABILITY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ...POSSIBLY EVEN AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED PRECIP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING (DECENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DELTA T/S IN THE LOWER TEENS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH). TRADITIONAL
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ZONES SHOULD BE THE RECIPIENT OF MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY. WILL BEGIN TO BEEF-UP PRECIP CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL DELTA T/S AND LIMITED INVERSION LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN-CHECK. THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHERN LOWER
HIGHLANDS GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH COMPLETE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED
MELTING LAYER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION
IF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE REALIZED. MOISTURE EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH FALLING LATE DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. AS MENTIONED...COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SIMPLE FORCED CAA DROPPING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWING ONLY
SLIGHT RECOVERY INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH...WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS...WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. ADD IN
THE RECENT WARM WEATHER....AND LIKELY GOING TO FEEL DOWNRIGHT COLD
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE SEASON KICKS
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN LOWER...AND ODDS FAVOR THE ISSUANCE
OF ONE OR BOTH. STILL HAVE SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW COLD THINGS
BECOME...WITH APEX OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOME CONCERN FOR LINGERING CLOUD ISSUES. OVERHEAD COLD AIRMASS
EASILY SUPPORTS LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S...JUST A TOUCH WARMER
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...IF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE REALIZED.
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Picked up 0.02" yesterday to bring the monthly total to a whopping 0.06"

After today/tonight, the next several days look rather quiet. Might have to go back on drought watch if this system underperforms. ;)

I figured you and/or you know who would be beating the drought drum sooner rather than later.

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