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zwyts 2013 Summer Outlook


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lol @ Dave for thinking severe weenies are just as bad in this forum. And I'm not saying that just because I like severe stuff better... if it was truly just as bad I wouldn't be posting in this forum at all.

Kinda took this thread OT... maybe this should be moved to the banter thread.

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maybe to you but there are major differences. we never talk about threats 10 days out.. or 9 mo out. ;)  plus we all generally expect it to suck.

LOL You crack me up, Severe wx peeps talk about 8, 9 days out too. Plus the snow weenies dont go chase a mediocre snow squall like some do with a T-storm every time either :P

 

 

lol @ Dave for thinking severe weenies are just as bad in this forum. And I'm not saying that just because I like severe stuff better... if it was truly just as bad I wouldn't be posting in this forum at all.

Kinda took this thread OT... maybe this should be moved to the banter thread

:lol:  

 

agreed sorry for ruining Matts thread, this should be in banter.

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LOL You crack me up, Severe wx peeps talk about 8, 9 days out too. Plus the snow weenies dont go chase a mediocre snow squall like some do with a T-storm every time either :P

 

 

i dont think you know what you're talking about. :(

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  • 1 month later...

I'll be doing a separate one for CWG, but felt like doing a personal one this summer

 

June: +1 to +2

July: -2

August: +1

 

Overall: Normal to +1

 

Analogs: 1923, 2009

June is going to be a bullseye for you.  Mr Allen's +0.5 to +1 is good but not as good as +1 to +2.  The CWG "normal" was weakest of 3.

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June is going to be a bullseye for you.  Mr Allen's +0.5 to +1 is good but not as good as +1 to +2.  The CWG "normal" was weakest of 3.

 

thanks, but I care the most about CWG and that is the one I put the most time into

 

If we end up +1.5, a normal call is not awful, but it isn't good either...Not sure what grade I would give it,,,probably a C, maybe a C+

 

3 out of the last 5 Junes have been scorching...+2.7, +3.6, +5.4 based on the new norms....I think identifying that it wouldn't be one of these scorchers is good...but would have liked to keep it in the -1 to +1 range to be a good call...

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  • 5 weeks later...

I'll be doing a separate one for CWG, but felt like doing a personal one this summer

 

June: +1 to +2

July: -2

August: +1

 

Overall: Normal to +1

 

Analogs: 1923, 2009

Going to have to see what happens after this upcoming below average-average pattern.  You may have had a right idea about July but it came 3+weeks late.  A bold call anyway the upcoming pattern continuing well into August would make you idea look pretty good. 

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Worth repeating that your cooler than average protracted regime is in fact materializing albeit a little bit over 3 weeks late.  Timing is a part of a verified forecast but making a call months in advance that is off by just several weeks is something to feel good about.

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Worth repeating that your cooler than average protracted regime is in fact materializing albeit a little bit over 3 weeks late.  Timing is a part of a verified forecast but making a call months in advance that is off by just several weeks is something to feel good about.

 

Thanks,...I think my July call was bad, but I agree that getting the overall is the most important....KA has the finest forecast I have seen so far at least

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Thanks,...I think my July call was bad, but I agree that getting the overall is the most important....KA has the finest forecast I have seen so far at least

The July numeric call was incorrect but it's basis was a cooler than normal, by a good bit, regime which has in fact now materialized at the end of July and appears it will continue for at least the first 1/3 of August. It's a bold call, it came too late to make the numbers work for July, but it still warrants the recognition that I think I have made.

Also, in April and May we both discussed publicly that we did not feel this wourld be anything like last several summers and that has come true. August and even September can throw some hot streaks but no sign right now.

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Not to diss anyone's call but saying this would be a cooler summer than the last three was kind of a no brainer unless we had cataclysmic climate change over the past few years.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I'll be doing a separate one for CWG, but felt like doing a personal one this summer

 

June: +1 to +2

July: -2

August: +1

 

Overall: Normal to +1

 

Analogs: 1923, 2009

The overall will be great and the monthlies and A,E,C- for a C job on them. Not sure what you said about rainfall.

Having that what turned out to be good idea about a negative month was close to right but came intra months.

Good forecast!

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I'll be doing a separate one for CWG, but felt like doing a personal one this summer

 

June: +1 to +2

July: -2

August: +1

 

Overall: Normal to +1

 

Analogs: 1923, 2009

June was an A+, July an E, August a D for a combined C-/D+ but overall was stellar, bullseye, A+.  Generally a good-very good temperature call and you were right bout a 30 day below average period it just ran in such a way that monthlies could not reflect it.

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