Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 I'm sorry; I didn't mean to have you speculate next winter. I was just curious how a more neutral picture would change your summer thoughts, if at all. Given the stuff that Sam has been posting about the QBO and what historically happens in DC during these type of ENSO winters, I too would lean probably not much..i stayed away from quick developing ninos....23-24/09-10 were late enough developers that I dont think they affect the outlook....I hedged neutral so therefore avoided summers like 1957 and 1997 where Nino blew up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 The earliest winter cancel i have ever seen since joining eastern. And you beat Ji as well. I'm going to go hide in the closet and cry now. lol don't worry about it (I know you are just kidding around). It's April. No one has a clue. probably not much..i stayed away from quick developing ninos....23-24/09-10 were late enough developers that I dont think they affect the outlook....I hedged neutral so therefore avoided summers like 1957 and 1997 where Nino blew up Sounds completely reasonable. Were the other late developers just not cutting it in terms of their sensible weather comparisons to DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Can't help but laugh that in a summer outlook thread we have already switched to talking about next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Zwyts, 86 wouldn't be a bad match so far from an enso/teleconnection standpoint. We would need enso to kick in the warming though to keep pace there. 86 JJA trimonthly was dead neutral. There are definitely some similarities with having a period of very intense hl blocking in the second half of winter. It just came earlier in Feb in 86 compared to Mar this year. What was the summer of 86 like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 lol don't worry about it (I know you are just kidding around). It's April. No one has a clue. Sounds completely reasonable. Were the other late developers just not cutting it in terms of their sensible weather comparisons to DC? partly..and also other factors...upper air patterns...preceding years...PDO, etc...I tossed 1986 for instance...and other non-ninos got consideration but failed some other tests...I'll probably do more in depth analysis for CWG.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Zwyts, 86 wouldn't be a bad match so far from an enso/teleconnection standpoint. We would need enso to kick in the warming though to keep pace there. 86 JJA trimonthly was dead neutral. There are definitely some similarities with having a period of very intense hl blocking in the second half of winter. It just came earlier in Feb in 86 compared to Mar this year. What was the summer of 86 like? summer of 86 was the beginning of a drought period....it was a hot summer with a cold August..in fact we tied THE ALL-TIME record low in August which is amazing for DCA...that isnt just DCA...that is going back to 1871 among other reasons, I mainly punted it because it was smack dab in the middle of a massive +PDO regime.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 summer of 86 was the beginning of a drought period....it was a hot summer with a cold August..in fact we tied THE ALL-TIME record low in August which is amazing for DCA...that isnt just DCA...that is going back to 1871 among other reasons, I mainly punted it because it was smack dab in the middle of a massive +PDO regime.. Also it was in the previous cold AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) regime which really seems to have an impact on our summer weather on the east coast...not so much winter. That lasted from about 1960 to the early 90s. Now we are in the warm regime again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Can't help but laugh that in a summer outlook thread we have already switched to talking about next winter. especially given the string of awful winter forecasts the past few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Without a Nino I sure would keep the snow below average for DCA again next year. I don't have any clue how the months would break down. Your last season call was pretty spectacular in that regard. we've gotten above normal snow in a non-nino once in the last 30 years....below normal at DCA is an absolute lock if we don't get a nino....the question is whether to start going 5-8" in these outlooks instead of the boilerplate 8-12 or 10-14.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Also it was in the previous cold AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) regime which really seems to have an impact on our summer weather on the east coast...not so much winter. That lasted from about 1960 to the early 90s. Now we are in the warm regime again. 75% chance you have a minus summer up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 75% chance you have a minus summer up there It would certainly buck the recent rend...I'd hedge positive all else being equal until the AMO goes back down a bit, but some of the objective analogs do have some coolish looking summers which may need to be weighted more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Matt, good luck with your forecast. Your winter outlook was great. I only hope July is -10. I think what everybody needs to take from Matt and Bobs comments in this thread is that they feel an epic winter is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 i think all three months are + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 the pattern for at least the start of may doesn't resemble 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 A normal summer would be great. I am booking it considering the source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 the pattern for at least the start of may doesn't resemble 09 I don't really like rolling over patterns from this far out. All 3 hot is a safe bet these days. Our July norm is really warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I love how this summer forecast thread is all about next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I love how this summer forecast thread is all about next winter any lr forecast that has the 2009 in it I'll gladly hug fwiw, CFS2 isn't now, nor has it been in any forecast so far, impressed with the heat this summer that should make Matt feel a bit if nothing else wrt winter, I just can't believe the NINA will kill us a 4th year in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 any lr forecast that has the 2009 in it I'll gladly hug fwiw, CFS2 isn't now, nor has it been in any forecast so far, impressed with the heat this summer that should make Matt feel a bit if nothing else wrt winter, I just can't believe the NINA will kill us a 4th year in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 any lr forecast that has the 2009 in it I'll gladly hug fwiw, CFS2 isn't now, nor has it been in any forecast so far, impressed with the heat this summer that should make Matt feel a bit if nothing else wrt winter, I just can't believe the NINA will kill us a 4th year in a row I have never looked at or used the CFS in any way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 any lr forecast that has the 2009 in it I'll gladly hug fwiw, CFS2 isn't now, nor has it been in any forecast so far, impressed with the heat this summer that should make Matt feel a bit if nothing else wrt winter, I just can't believe the NINA will kill us a 4th year in a row Euro SIPS isn't impressed with heat this summer either. Doesn't mean it is right of course. I usually look at it for long range ENSO and not summer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I have never looked at or used the CFS in any way I know you don't but modelology, although separate from actual wx forecasting, is a related field that I sometimes prefer over wx forecasting! sort of like stock derivatives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I know you don't but modelology, although separate from actual wx forecasting, is a related field that I sometimes prefer over wx forecasting! sort of like stock derivatives Where's Bob to tell us what it's showing for Thanksgiving into Dec 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I love how this summer forecast thread is all about next winter cause this subforum is overrun by a bunch of ice******* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 cause this subforum is overrun by a bunch of ice******* What are ice stars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 cause this subforum is overrun by a bunch of ice******* Same goes for severe wx geeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Same goes for severe wx geeks.Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Same goes for severe wx geeks. only a summer thread could be turned into a winter one, by snow weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Not really Really. You guys are just as bad. only a summer thread could be turned into a winter one, by snow weenies But it just wasnt weenies talking about the snow, Wes, Will and few others mentioned the S word too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Really. You guys are just as bad. maybe to you but there are major differences. we never talk about threats 10 days out.. or 9 mo out. plus we all generally expect it to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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