Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I'll be doing a separate one for CWG, but felt like doing a personal one this summer June: +1 to +2 July: -2 August: +1 Overall: Normal to +1 Analogs: 1923, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 A minus summer month.. that would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 A minus summer month.. that would be different. The signal is really strong for a minus July and our norm is ludicrously high...but persistence laughs in my face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 The signal is really strong for a minus July and our norm is ludicrously high...but persistence laughs in my face I've seen a few folks throw around 2009. No clue on 1923. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 I've seen a few folks throw around 2009. No clue on 1923. I like it a lot...of course 90 year old analogs aren't exactly the most reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 This summer has some potential to be much closer to average and I like your forecast. It really is tough to go minus though. DC has a habit of having higher lows nowadays. At least it seems that way to me. I don't have any data. I'll go out on a limb and say May is going to be -1 to -2. Persistence with the teleconnections appears to be in play. HL blocking is coming back. I know it doesn't mean nearly as much in May as it does during the winter but it can easily keep the se ridge at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 This summer has some potential to be much closer to average and I like your forecast. It really is tough to go minus though. DC has a habit of having higher lows nowadays. At least it seems that way to me. I don't have any data. I'll go out on a limb and say May is going to be -1 to -2. Persistence with the teleconnections appears to be in play. HL blocking is coming back. I know it doesn't mean nearly as much in May as it does during the winter but it can easily keep the se ridge at bay. agreed....I like -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I hate you both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I'll be doing a separate one for CWG, but felt like doing a personal one this summer June: +1 to +2 July: -2 August: +1 Overall: Normal to +1 Analogs: 1923, 2009 Thanks for your thoughts. Are you thinking an El Niño is on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 August '04. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Thanks for your thoughts. Are you thinking an El Niño is on the way? thanks and yes....euro has already sniffed it out, plus hard to get a cold episode for so long...at least I hope we get one...a neutral down here would be awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 I hate you both. why?...bad severe years?...cold may bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 thanks and yes....euro has already sniffed it out, plus hard to get a cold episode for so long...at least I hope we get one...a neutral down here would be awful Limited historical data but it would be awful tough to go Nina or even cold neutral. At least from a historical perspective. Warm neutral or weak/mod Nino would be a fair wag. I highly doubt we get a strong Nino and that is fine because they can suck. Gun to head guess is weak Nino +1.0 - 1.2ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Limited historical data but it would be awful tough to go Nina or even cold neutral. At least from a historical perspective. Warm neutral or weak/mod Nino would be a fair wag. I highly doubt we get a strong Nino and that is fine because they can suck. Gun to head guess is weak Nino +1.0 - 1.2ish. sometimes...I'd roll the dice....I want nino to be as strong as possible...I'd sign up right now for a tri-monthly of +1.9 - 2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 sometimes...I'd roll the dice....I want nino to be as strong as possible...I'd sign up right now for a tri-monthly of +1.9 - 2.2 And ANOTHER year of anomalous HL blocking to go along with it. Plows trucks will need plow trucks to help get unstuck. haha. We DESERVE it. It's ours this year for cripes sakes. I will say this, we will have a record long range winter outlook thread starting in June if the Nino becomes more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 why?...bad severe years?...cold may bad? For his chase he needs a ridge in the east which would give us warmer than normal temps. A trough in the east would damp his chances at spotting a tornado. He wants a trough in the west and a roaring low level jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 For his chase he needs a ridge in the east which would give us warmer than normal temps. A trough in the east would damp his chances at spotting a tornado. He wants a trough in the west and a roaring low level jet thanks...maybe he is going late enough that we are ridging by that time..June should be hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 For his chase he needs a ridge in the east which would give us warmer than normal temps. A trough in the east would damp his chances at spotting a tornado. He wants a trough in the west and a roaring low level jet He never prays for us in the winter, so i am unable to pray for anything more than spotty showers for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 thanks and yes....euro has already sniffed it out, plus hard to get a cold episode for so long...at least I hope we get one...a neutral down here would be awful Should El Niño chances begin to dwindle over time, what analog set would you then favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 thanks...maybe he is going late enough that we are ridging by that time..June should be hot Early-Mid June is a prime severe weather period for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Should El Niño chances begin to dwindle over time, what analog set would you then favor? good question...haven't really examined yet.....maybe a 45-46/01-02 combo/hedge?...smoothing the outlier tendencies of both.... something frontloaded assuming you don't get the nasty vortex in AK like December 2001 Cold december like 1945 without the K/U? so maybe -3 +2 +2 10" What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Should El Niño chances begin to dwindle over time, what analog set would you then favor? I'm no zwyts but I would toss in 90-91 or 01-02. Maybe 81-82. If it's another neutral year I don't think any long range calls will have an easy time verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 good question...haven't really examined yet.....maybe a 45-46/01-02 combo/hedge?...smoothing the outlier tendencies of both.... something frontloaded assuming you don't get the nasty vortex in AK like December 2001 Cold december like 1945 without the K/U? so maybe -3 +2 +2 10" What do you think? Without a Nino I sure would keep the snow below average for DCA again next year. I don't have any clue how the months would break down. Your last season call was pretty spectacular in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 He never prays for us in the winter, so i am unable to pray for anything more than spotty showers for him.I never root against snow I just mainly want a big one.. Or more than 1.5" at least. Next winter is the winter. Our dates are solid climo wise.. That period produces every year unless something horrible happens. Kinda wonder if June will be better than May in the Plains but with the drought June could also shut off hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 I'm no zwyts but I would toss in 90-91 or 01-02. Maybe 81-82. If it's another neutral year I don't think any long range calls will have an easy time verifying. not a bad analog....yes...no way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Without a Nino I sure would keep the snow below average for DCA again next year. I don't have any clue how the months would break down. Your last season call was pretty spectacular in that regard. thanks...I think we have an advantage in December if we wait until November to release it.....the other months are harder, but sometimes there is a strong signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I think paying a bit more attention to the other side of the globe late fall/early winter would be smart too. That early winter siberian blocking high is starting to become a bit predictable and consistent. It's been showing up a lot since 07 or so and it's been locking the coldest air in the NH on the other side more often than not. If it sets up again then we are back to relying on a big -ao again just to be "cold enough". Even a big -ao can be trumped by a crappy pac as we had the pleasure of experiencing last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 good question...haven't really examined yet.....maybe a 45-46/01-02 combo/hedge?...smoothing the outlier tendencies of both.... something frontloaded assuming you don't get the nasty vortex in AK like December 2001 Cold december like 1945 without the K/U? so maybe -3 +2 +2 10" What do you think? I'm sorry; I didn't mean to have you speculate next winter. I was just curious how a more neutral picture would change your summer thoughts, if at all. Given the stuff that Sam has been posting about the QBO and what historically happens in DC during these type of ENSO winters, I too would lean warmish/below normal snowfall. I'm not sure and couldn't really guess yet if things would be front or back-loaded. I'm currently against an El Niño but admit that my confidence is low. For the last 2 months, the warm pool has been consolidating and moving west into Indonesia. The southern Indian Ocean has also done the same thing it has for the last couple of years, piling water into the NW IO and western Australia. All of this, combined with the -PDO is preventing an appreciable warming over 3.4 for the time being. We are like we were in September to some extent with the positioning of oceanic features and consolidating western Pac warm pool. Not long after, we saw a significant downwelling KW. It is possible that we get the MJO to kick up next month as the final warming in the stratosphere begins to affect things. Perhaps it will combine with the +QBO and somewhat stealthy equatorial counter current to do the trick. But my money is that this all fails in delivering a true El Niño...gulp. I'm no zwyts but I would toss in 90-91 or 01-02. Maybe 81-82. If it's another neutral year I don't think any long range calls will have an easy time verifying. Yep. Another annoying cold season if things stay neutral. Even if we get an El Niño, it's not quite a slam dunk either. Without a Nino I sure would keep the snow below average for DCA again next year. I don't have any clue how the months would break down. Your last season call was pretty spectacular in that regard. I agree with everything you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 But my money is that this all fails in delivering a true El Niño...gulp. The earliest winter cancel i have ever seen since joining eastern. And you beat Ji as well. I'm going to go hide in the closet and cry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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