May 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: -1.1

NYC: -0.7

BOS: +0.8

ORD: -1.1

ATL: -1.4

IAH: -1.4

 

[Chicago Storm]

DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH

+1.5 ... 0.0 ... +0.2 ... ... --1.5 ... +0.1 ... --1.5

 

Bonus: May 25th, C. Plains. (SD/NE/IA/KS/OK/MO)

[PottercountyWXobserver]

DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... ... ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH

 

+0.5... +0.0... +0.0... ... ... -1.8... -2.7... -2.0

 

May 20th TX/OK Max EF 3

[RodneyS]

DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH

+1.1 ...+2.3 ... +2.7 ... ... -2.1 ... -1.4 ... -3.0

 

Bonus: May 31st, Texas

[blazess556]

DCA: +2.6

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +0.9

ATL: +1.9

IAH: +1.3

 

Bonus Question May 28rd, 44 Tornadoes, TK/OK max EF4

[The_Global_Warmer]

DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... ... ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH

+2.5     +3.5      +2.4              -2.1      -1.0     +2.4

 

 

May 13th-15th.  Southern Plains up to Southern Nebraska.  Then East into Iowa, Wisconsin, The Ohio Valley and the Tennesee Valley.  Ending along the Eastern Sea board from South Carolina to DC maybe even NYC the 15th.

[hudsonvalley21]

Alaska?

 Ooops  AR  thanks  I will edit.

[Roger Smith]

MAY FORECASTS
 
___________________
 
 
Forecaster ______________ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS _________ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH
 
_____________________________________________________________________________

 

H2OtownWx _____________ +3.1 ___ +2.8 ___ +2.8 ______ +1.7 ___ +2.2 ___ +2.4 ___ 44% pen

blazess556 ______________ +2.6 ___ +2.0 ___ +1.5 ______ +0.9 ___ +1.9 ___ +1.3

Frivolousz21 _____________ +2.5 ___ +3.5 ___ +2.4 ______ --2.1 ___ --1.0___ +2.4 ___ 1% pen

Inudaw _________________ +2.3 ___ +1.9 ___ +1.2 ______ --0.5 ___ +0.5 ___ --1.6

Stebo __________________ +2.3 ___ +1.8 ___ +1.3 ______ +0.7 ___ +1.7 ___ +1.1

CTBlizz _________________ +2.0 ___ +2.4 ___ +2.9 ______ --1.2 ___ +0.3 ___ +1.5 ___ 31% pen

DerekZ _________________ +2.0 ___ +2.0 ___ +2.0 ______ +1.0 ___ +0.5 ___ --1.0
goobagooba _____________ +2.0 ___ +1.8 __  +2.3 ______ --0.5 ___ +1.5 ___ --0.2
Roger Smith _____________ +2.0 ___ +1.5 ___ +2.2 ______ +1.5 ___ +1.0 ___ +0.8

SACRUS ________________ +1.8 ___ +0.9 ___ +1.0 ______ +1.5 ___ +0.5 ___ -1.1

Chicago Storm ___________ +1.5 ____ 0.0 ___ +0.2 ______ --1.5 ___ +0.1 ___ --1.5

Tom ___________________ +1.4 ___ +1.1 ___ +1.1 ______ +0.4 ___  +2.1 ___ +1.8

SD ____________________  +1.3 ___ +1.1 ___ +0.4 ______ --0.5 ___ +1.5 ___ +2.1

RodneyS ________________ +1.1 ___ +2.3 ___+2.7 ______ --2.1 ___ --1.4 ___ --3.0

wxdude64 ______________ +1.0 ___ +1.0 ___ +0.6 ______ --0.9 ___ --1.6 ___ --1.7

uncle W ________________ +1.0 ___ --0.5 ___ +0.5 ______ --1.0 ___ --0.5 ___ --1.0

 

Consensus ______________ +0.7 ___ +1.0 ___ +1.0 ______ --0.5 ___ --0.4 ___ --1.0

 

bkviking ________________ +0.7 ___ +1.4 ___ +1.1 ______ +1.1 ___ --0.8 ___ +0.2

Chicago Wx _____________ +0.7 ___ +0.9 ___ +1.0 ______ +0.5 ___ +0.6 ___ +0.5

Isotherm _______________ +0.5 ___ +1.5 ___ +1.0 ______ +1.0 ___ --1.0 ___ --1.5

ohleary ________________ +0.5 ___ +0.9 ___+1.5 ______ --0.2 ___ --0.8 ___ --1.2

MN Transplant __________ +0.5 ___ +0.5 ___ +0.7 ______ -2.5 ___ --1.5 ____  0.0

PottercountywxObs_______ +0.5 ____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ______ --1.8 ___ --2.7____ --2.0

Ellinwood _______________+0.4 ___ +0.9 ___ +1.4 ______ +0.5 ___ --1.2 ___ --2.0

andyhb ________________ +0.4 ___  +0.2 ___ +0.6 _____ --0.2 ___  +0.4 ___ --0.7

Eduardo _______________ +0.3 ___ +1.0 ___ +1.5 ______  --0.5 ___ --0.4 ___ --1.0
hudsonvalley21 _________ +0.3 ___ +0.2 ___ +0.4 ______ +1.0 ___ +1.1 ___ +1.5
skierinvermont __________ +0.2 ___ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _______ 0.0 ___ --1.2 ___  --2.0

 

Normal _________________ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ________ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ____ 0.0

 

I.need.snow ____________ --0.4 ___  --0.2 ___ +0.1 ______ --0.4 ___ +1.5 ___ +1.2
metalicwx366 __________  --0.5 ___  --1.1 ___ --0.7 ______ --1.5 ___ --3.5 ___ --2.5

Mallow ________________ --0.9 ___ +0.1 ___ +0.7 ______ --2.2 ___ --1.8 ___ --2.2

donsutherland.1 ________ --1.0 ___ --0.3 ___ +0.3 ______ --1.0 ___ --1.3 ___ --2.0
Mike Ventrice __________ --1.0 ___  --0.7 ___ --0.3 ______ +0.2 ___ --2.5 ___  --0.5

Midlo Snow Maker ______  --1.1 ___ --0.7 ___ +0.8 ______  --1.1 ___ --1.4 ___ --1.4

 

 

CT Blizz and H2OtownWx added to table, current time penalty (2200h 2nd) is 47%

33 forecasts, median is 17th ranked forecast (changes with new entries) -- normal not included

 
 
Severe Outbreak forecasts (arranged by date)
_________________________________________

 
13th ... Texas,Oklahoma,Arkansas 20 tornadoes Max EF2 ... metalicwx366

13th to 15th ... Southern Plains up to s NE.  Then east into IA, WI, O/V and T/V.  Ending along the eastern seaboard from SC to DC maybe even NYC 15th. ... Frivolousz21
 
14th ... Northern MS, AL, GA and TN .. 32 tornadoes ... wxdude64

17th ... the day AFTER I come back from chasing in the Plains. I'm thinking south of OKC, a few EF2s. ... SD
18th-19th ... LA-MO-MS-TN ... 22 TOR, Max EF-4. ... bkviking

20th ... TX/OK Max EF 3 ... PotterCountyWxObs

21st ... ncOK c KS, se NE  41 Tornados 1 EF5, 3 EF4's ... Tom

21st ...  27 tornadoes max EF4 ... I.need.snow
22nd-23rd across KS/MO/OK/IL. ... Isotherm
23rd ... 65 Tornadoes, OK/KS max EF4 ... Stebo
23rd ... major 23rd-24th OK/KS to IL/IN/KY (ICT then s IL) ... Roger Smith

25th ... C. Plains. (SD/NE/IA/KS/OK/MO) ... Chicago Storm

25th ... OK, KS and MO, 47 tornadoes, max EF4. ... andyhb

26th ... KS/OK ... at least one F3 ... Eduardo

27th, OK/KS/NE/MO ... Ellinwood

27th-28th ... KY/IL/IN/OH  .. 28 tornadoes, EF3 max .. ohleary

28th ... IN-OH-KY, 9 tornadoes, 1 EF-4 ... DerekZ

28th ... (28rd) 44 Tornadoes, TK/OK max EF4 ... blazess556

30th ... OK/KS ... MN Transplant

31st ... Texas ... RodneyS

______________________________________

 

If you didn't notice the svr wx bonus and want to add your forecast, let's say seven or more days after date of posting up to 5th, will "score" this subjectively but with your input as we go along.

[Damage In Tolland]

Totally forgot about this..my bad

DCA +2.0

NYC +2.4

BOS+ 2.9

ORD- 1.2

ATL +0.3

HOU +1.5

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS ... ..ORD...ATL...IAH

+3.1...+2.8...+2.8 ... ...+1.7...+2.2...+2.4

[Roger Smith]

Two posts back, I have an ongoing record of anomalies and severe storm reports that is being updated each day. Houston set a record low of 42 F on Saturday, the previous record was 44 (1978). Would imagine Atlanta was close to their record low max at 59F.

 

As you'll see in that other post, anomalies so far have been small positives at ORD and NYC, medium negatives at DCA, BOS and large negatives at IAH, ATL.

 

Not much action yet in the severe storm bonus section.

[wxdude64]

After 6 days it is negative city!! (Except Chicago, which has been neg all year it seems)

 

DCA  -3.8

 

NYC  -1.0

 

BOS  -3.7

 

ORD  +1.5

 

ATL  -7.4

 

IAH  -9.8

[Roger Smith]

(bump from earlier post and edit)

Daily Reports

This month, with the severe weather bonus question, I will maintain a daily update on the anomalies and severe weather reports from NWS site. This post will be edited each day to update, so don't look for new posts, however, I may repost this if the thread is active.

For the severe weather reports, the NWS reporting day is 12z to 12z. So I will copy their numbers but then adjust them in a second set of data with time zones in mind (day will end at 05z in CDT etc). In the first instance, there were no adjustments required. In the table, "cat" will show highest risk category issued (same day) and T, W, H are tornados, wind reports, and hail reports with the second column set being the adjusted calendar day values. Notes on locations at end of reports. Where applicable, I may adjust these when reports are adjusted later. We can then have a subjective discussion about the forecasts.

Date __Temp Anomalies (cumulative to date) ___________________________ Svr Wx Reports

_ _ ___DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________cat__ T _ W _ H ___ T _ W _ H __ loc'n

01 __ --1.5 ____ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _____ +16.0 ___ --0.5 ___ +2.0 ______ -- ___ 0 _ 5 _ 19 ___ 0 _ 4 _ 19 __ near ABI
02 __ --2.5 ____+1.2 ___ --0.8 ______ +4.5 ___ --1.0 ___ --3.5 ______ -- ___ 1 _ 7 __ 0 ___ 1 _ 8 __ 1 __ FL, IL
03 __ --2.8 ____+0.3 ___ --0.5 ______ --0.5 ___ --2.3 ___ --7.3 ______ -- ___ 0 _ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _ 0 __ 0 ___ -- -- --
04 __ --2.8 ____+0.1 ___ --1.9 ______ +0.5 ___ --4.8 ___ --9.0 ______ -- ___ 1 _ 4 __ 0 ___ 1 _ 4 __ 0 ___ FL
05 __ --3.7 ___ --0.7 ____--3.2 ______ +0.9 ___ --5.8 ___ --9.7 ______ -- ___0 _ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 _ 0 __ 1 ___ n CA
06 __ --3.8 ___ --1.0 ____--3.7 ______ +1.5 ___ --7.4 ___ --9.8 ______ s ___ 1 _ 5__16 ___ 1 _ 5 __16___ wTX,NC
07 __ --3.4 ___ --0.4 ____--2.5 ______ +2.1 ___ --7.7 ___ --9.1 ______ s ___ 0 _ 2__30 ___ 0 _ 2 __30___ wKS
08 __ --2.8 ___ --0.5 ____--1.8 ______ +2.6 ___ --7.2 ___ --8.2 ______ s ___ 7 _32_116 ___ 7 _28 _116__ wOK,KS,nwTX
09 __ --2.2 ___ --0.3 ____ --1.3 _____ +2.7 ___ --6.2 ___--7.4 ______ s ___ 4 _26__57 ___ 3 _21_ 49 ___ TX (t IL-IN)
10 __ --1.3 ___ +0.5 ____ --0.5 _____ +1.3 ___ --5.5 ___--7.0 ______ s ___ 0 _55__44 ___ 0 _60_52 ___ sTX,wPA
11 __ --0.5 ___ +0.9 ____ +0.4 _____ +0.6 ___ --5.0 ___--6.4 ______ s ___ 0 _ 28 __6 ___ 0 _28_ 6 ___ NJ,VA
12 __ --0.8 ___ +0.7 ____ +0.8 _____ --0.5 ___ --5.1 ___--6.2 ______ -- ___ 0 _ 1 __0 ____ 0 _ 1 _ 0 ___ seFL
13 __ --1.6 ___ --0.4 ___ +0.1 ______--1.0 ___ --5.6 ___--6.3 ______ s ___ 0 __28_1 ____ 0 _21_ 1 ___ MT,WA
14 __ --2.2 ___ --0.9 ____ 0.0 ______--0.1 ___ --5.6 ___--6.3 ______ -- ___ 0 _ 19_1 ____ 0 _26_ 1 ___ IA,WI
15 __ --1.7 ___ --0.9 ____--0.2 ______ +0.7 ___ --5.0 ___--6.2 _____ m ___ 7 _20_31 ____ 7 _20_ 30 ___ s,wDFW-OKC (F4 Granbury TX)
16 __ --0.9 ___ --0.3 ____ +0.4 ______ +1.2 ___--4.5 ___--5.8 _____ s ___ 4 _16_14 ____ 4 _16_ 15 ___ nwLA, noVA
17 __ --0.5 ___ --0.2 ____ +0.6 ______ +1.4 __ --4.1 ___ --5.2 _____ s ___10 _21_86 ____10_18_83 ___ TX,SD-MN
18 __ --0.6 ___ --0.3 ____ +0.7 ______ +1.8 __--4.0 ___ --4.7 _____ m __16 _78_ 92 ____16_73_ 93 ___ wKS,nwOK.wNE
19 __ --0.4 ___ --0.6 ____ +0.5 ______ +2.3 __--3.9 ___ --4.2 _____ m __34 _325_199___34_325_199 ___OK,KS (2F3 OKC)
20 __ --0.1 ___ --0.3 ____ +1.0 _____ +2.7 __--3.9 ___ --3.6 _____ m __37 _281_128___35_211_126 ___OK,seKS.MO,MI (F3,5 OKC)
21 __ +0.3 ___ +0.3 ____+0.9 ______ +3.4 __--3.1 ___ --3.3 ____ m ___ 0 _307_ 106___ 2_370_105 ___neTX-LA,MS,TN,KY,NY
22 __ +0.8 ___ +0.5 ____+0.6 ______ +3.3 __ --2.8 ___ --3.0 _____ s ___ 0 _145_ 57 ___ 0_152_ 57 ___NY to SC
23 __ +1.0 ___ +0.8 ____+0.8 ______ +2.6 __ --2.5 ___ --2.8 ______s ___ 7 _ 92 _ 38 ___ 7_ 92 _ 38 ___ wTX
24 __ +0.6 ___ +0.4 ____+0.8 ______ +2.0 __ --2.6 ___--2.4 ______s ___ 1 __ 7 _ 39 ___ 1__ 6 _ 38 ___ eCO/wKS,NE
25 __ +0.1 ___ --0.3 ____+0.3 ______ +1.4 __ --2.7 ___--2.6 ______s ___ 3 __20 _ 82 ___ 3__ 17_ 82 ___wSD
26 __ --0.2 ___ --0.6 ___ --0.2 ______ +1.2 __ --2.7 ___--2.3 _____ s ___ 3 __10 _ 50 ___ 3__ 9 _ 50 ___NE/SD
27 __ --0.4 ___ --0.7 ___ --0.2 ______ +0.9 __ --2.6 ___--2.2 _____ m ___ 16 __ 74 _ 66 __ 16 __ 75 _ 67 ___NE/KS(F2 ncKS)
28 __ --0.3 ___ --0.8 ___ --0.3 ______ +1.0 __ --2.4 ___--2.1 _____ m ___ 34 _121 _126 __ 20 _116_126 ___MI to KS/OK(F2 MI)
29 __ +0.1 ___ --0.7 ___ --0.3 ______ +1.4 __ --2.3 ___--1.9 _____ m ___ 24 _205 _136 __ 24 _210 _136___WI to OK,NY

30 __ +0.4 ___ +0.1 ___ +0.2 ______ +1.6 __ --2.2 ___--1.8 _____ m ___ 17 _228 _74 __ 16 _225 _62___WI to AR

31 __ +0.7 ___ +0.4 ___ +1.0 ______ +1.9 __ --2.0 ___ --1.4 _____ m ___ 25 _156_95 __ 26 _144 _106 __ IL to OK(F3 OKC)

_____________________________________

severe weather stats change daily as information is processed, temp anomalies marked e are estimated from past day's anomalies blended with previous day's monthly value -- these are later edited to official values.

[Roger Smith]

As you may have noticed, I have been updating anomalies and severe weather stats daily in the previous post. ^^

 

At this point, IAH and ATL are struggling to get out of the basement and would have to go some now to get into the lower end of our group's predictions. The other four locations have stalled out in the -2 to zero range and look set to recover so scoring could be meaty in general for these.

 

(added 20th) ... warmer temps have continued to eat away slowly at the large negative anomalies for IAH and ATL. Otherwise, ORD continues to build slowly in the +2 range and the eastern three are bobbing around zero.

 

(added 22nd) ... warm spell has erased the slight negatives in the northeast now, and Chicago continues to move up while IAH and ATL continue to come closer to the bottom of our group's forecast range, so some will perhaps do very well this month. It would currently take ten days of +7 anomalies to return those two stations to normal for May.

 

(originally posted) ... Now, for our entirely-for-miscellaneous-bragging-rights severe weather outlooks, nobody ventured a guess before the 13th so the peak around the 8th got no love. Metallicwx366 and wxdude64 have returned to the dugout, and Frivolousz21 seems to have hit an infield single, his timing looks fairly good but severity was borderline so far.

 

We'll see if anyone can "get to third base" before this is all said and done.

[Roger Smith]

I have updated the table for the 17th with some data still in the estimate stage from daily anomalies.

 

My entirely subjective ratings of the severe weather forecasts would now include a slide into second, safe, for SD. There was a tornado south of OKC at Graham TX, have seen video of it on Net-weather and there were other severe storms including several tornadoes in the Dakotas and Minnesota not mentioned in his outlook, also it may not make it very high on the eventual list for the month but on the whole, not a bad effort. Hope the storm chase went well.

 

(added 20th)

 

BKviking had a good idea about timing (this past weekend) but had the outbreak further east. Giving him a base on balls so we now have runners on first and second.

 

Pottercountywxobserver at the plate, he says tornadoes today up to EF3 in TX and OK, I think those runners had better be ready to go.

 

(added 21st)

 

Seems to me that Potter has hit a three-run homer, next up are Tom and Ineedsnow.

 

(added 22nd)

 

Tom and Ineedsnow had good outlooks for the day previous, but for the day selected they were too strong and for Tom, too far west. I'm giving them both infield singles so we have runners on first and second with a couple of new batters coming up today.

 

(added 23rd)

 

In the general spirit of how these outlooks are being "scored" Isotherm has advanced the two on-base runners to second and third with a sacrifice fly. Next up are Stebo and yours truly, with similar forecasts for the southern plains today (mine runs to a second day in the Midwest on Friday). I'm going to say (for dramatic effect) that Team Random had  taken a 5-0 lead in earlier innings, and this is bottom of the eighth now, score is 5-3 with two men on base, Team Am-Wx still up to bat. Team Random will be back up some time before the final few days, then we'll see who can give us the win.

 

(added 24th)

 

As Stebo and yours truly had similar forecasts, I will continue the narrative as if Stebo alone made the TX/OK forecast ... 23rd forecasts hit an infield single, intensity a bit low and location further west than I was thinking, not sure about Stebo, in west Texas mostly ... net effect is that runners have advanced and bases are loaded. My forecast extended to today and will not verify for IL, so that batter is out on a pop-up, runners holding. Two out, bottom of the 8th inning, score 5-3 for Team Random.

 

(added 26th)

 

Chicago Storm hit a double with his prediction for 25th that nailed the region although this was just an average day for the past two weeks. This brought home two runs, tying the score 5-5. Then Andy hb came to bat and hit a sharp grounder to second which was turned into a force out at home plate, side out.

 

Team Random Chance now up to bat top of the ninth, score tied 5-5. Our relief pitcher Eduardo has struck out one, issued a base on balls, and that runner is advanced by a long fly to center field. Eduardo called back into the bullpen and now Ellinwood is pitching, Team Random one out and a man on second. We'll see how Ellinwood does tomorrow as he pitches major severe weather in KS/OK/NE/MO. I think we'll have our turn in the bottom of the 9th with the rest of the line-up.

 

(added after 27th)

 

Ellinwood has retired the side with one of our more accurate forecasts so far, and three batters are now up for today.

 

(added on 29th)

 

Ohleary, DerekZ and blazes came up to bat yesterday and all were a bit off in their timing and location but not too shabby as close calls, so I'm giving them all singles and the bases are loaded. We can win if MNT and/or Rodney S don't hit into double plays. Nobody's up today, so I'm giving Team Random an out for a man caught off first base.

 

So it's bottom of the ninth, score tied 5-5, one Am-Wx man out, runners on second and third, two batters up next two days. Can this get any more exciting? Probably.

 

(added on 30th)

 

Well, I would say MN Transplant has ended the game successfully, with at least a triple the way I'm comparing forecasts. I guess that means technically we win 6-5.

 

(added on June 1st)

 

RodneyS picked a very active day, but his location was outside the strike zone ... giving him a walk as a comparative score.

[Roger Smith]

In post 43 above, have updated the daily anomalies with some estimates at this early hour, and looking at the NWS forecasts for last seven days of the month, it appears that most of these values will rise by half a degree to one full degree (Houston has the most consistent warming ahead, the other stations have a day or two further erosion of current values before a sharp rise last 3-4 days).

 

The finishing values will be something like +1.0 for the three eastern stations, +2.5 for Chicago and -2 for Atlanta, possibly -1.5 for Houston. If the heat at the end of the month became more intense than the NWS forecast values these could all be several tenths higher with upper limits probably one degree higher than stated.

 

Based on the more conservative values, I checked the forecasts and figure that wxdude64, Isotherm and Sacrus are battling for top points with Consensus. A more dramatic heat wave 28th-31st would favour a few others with somewhat higher forecasts all round. The field will definitely tighten up as our table leaders are mainly in the middle of the pack this month.

 

(edited 28th)

 

The projections after some very chilly anomalies in the east on the weekend are

 

DCA +0.7

NYC +0.4

BOS +0.4

ORD +2.0

ATL --2.4

IAH --1.5

 

I have posted a preliminary table of scores which can be adjusted until we get the final numbers. That final table will be validated against an excel file but if you spot any errors in this preliminary table let me know. They won't necessarily survive the excel check because that will be done directly from the eventual final anomalies.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for May

 

 

 

Forecaster ______________ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS _________ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

_____________________________________________________________________________

 

Actual values ........................... +0.7 ...... +0.4 ...... +1.0 ...... ...... +1.9 ..... --2.0 ..... --1.4

 

Isotherm _______________ 96 ___ 78 __ 100 __ 274 ___ 82 ___ 80 ___ 98 ___ 260 ____ 534

Ellinwood _______________94 ___ 90 ___ 92 __ 276 ___ 72 ___ 84 ___ 88 ___ 244 ____ 520

bkviking ______________ 100 ___ 80 ___ 98 __ 278 ___ 84 ___ 76 ___ 68 ___ 228 ____ 506

ohleary ________________ 96 ___ 90 ___ 90 __ 276 ___ 58 ___ 76 ___ 96 ___ 230 ____ 506

SACRUS _______________ 78 ___ 90 __ 100 __ 268 ___ 92 ___ 50 ___ 94 ___ 236 ____ 504

wxdude64 ______________ 94 ___ 88 ___ 92 __ 274 ___ 44 ___ 92 ___ 94 ___ 230 ____ 504

 

Consensus ____________ 100 ___ 88 __ 100 __ 288  ___ 52 ___ 68 ___ 92 ___ 212 ____ 500

 

skierinvermont __________ 90 ___ 88 ___ 80 __ 258 ___ 62 ___ 84 ___ 88 ___ 234 ____ 492

Eduardo _______________ 92 ___ 88 ___ 90 __ 270 ___ 52 ___ 68 ___ 92 ___ 212 ____ 482

andyhb ________________ 94 ___ 96 ___ 92 __ 282 ___ 58 ___ 52 ___ 86 ___ 196 ____ 478

Chicago Wx ___________ 100 ___ 90 ___100 __ 290 ___ 72 ___ 48 ___ 62 ___ 182 ____ 472

uncle W ________________ 94 ___ 82 ___ 90 __ 266 ___ 42 ___ 70 ___ 92 ___ 204 ____ 470

PottercountywxObs_______ 96 ___ 92 ___ 80 __ 268 ___ 26 ___ 86____ 88 ___ 200 ____ 468

Midlo Snow Maker _______ 64 ___ 78 ___ 96 __ 238 ___ 40 ___ 88 __ 100 ___ 228 ____ 466

MN Transplant __________ 96 ___ 98 ___ 94 __ 288 ___ 12 ___ 90 ___ 72 ___ 174 ____ 462

Mike Ventrice ___________ 66 ___ 78 ___ 74 __ 218 ___ 66 ___ 90 ___ 82 ___ 238 ____ 456

Mallow ________________ 68 ___ 94 ___ 94 __ 256 ___ 18 ___ 96 ___ 84 ___ 198 ____ 454

donsutherland.1 _________ 66 ___ 86 ___ 86 __ 238 ___ 42 ___ 86 ___ 88 ___ 216 ____ 454

 

Normal ___________________ 86 _____ 92 _____ 80 __ 258 _____ 62 _____ 60 _____ 72 ____ 194 ___ 452

 

Chicago Storm __________ 84 ___ 92 ___ 84 __ 260 ___ 32 ___ 58 ___ 98 ___ 188 ____ 448

DerekZ ________________ 74 ___ 68 ___ 80 __ 222 ___ 82 ___ 50 ___ 92 ___ 224 ____ 446

hudsonvalley21 _________ 92 ___ 96 ___ 88 __ 276 ___ 82 ___ 38 ___ 42 ___ 162 ____ 438
Inudaw ________________ 68 ___ 70 ___ 96 __ 234 ___ 52 ___ 50 ___ 96 ___ 198 ____ 432

Roger Smith ____________ 74 ___ 78 ___ 76 __ 228 ___ 92 ___ 40 ___ 56 ___ 188 ____ 416

RodneyS _______________ 92 ___ 62 ___66 __ 220 ___ 20 ___ 88 ___ 68 ___ 176 ____ 396

Tom __________________ 86 ___ 86 ___ 98 __ 270 ___ 70 ___ 18 ___ 36 ___ 124 ____ 394

metalicwx366 ___________ 76 ___ 70 ___ 66 __ 212 ___ 32 ___ 70 ___ 78 ___ 180 ____ 392

Stebo _________________ 68 ___ 72 ___ 94 __ 234 ___ 76 ___ 26 ___ 50 ___ 152 ____ 386

I.need.snow ____________ 78 ___ 88 ___ 82 __ 248 ___ 54 ___ 30 ___ 48 ___ 132 ____ 380
goobagooba ____________ 74 ___ 72 ___ 74 __ 220 ___ 52 ___ 30 ___ 76 ___ 158 ____ 378

SD ___________________ 88 ___ 86 ___ 88 __ 262 ___ 52 ___ 30 ___ 30 ___ 112 ____ 374

blazess556 _____________ 62 ___ 68 ___ 90 __ 220 ___ 80 ___ 22 ___ 46 ___ 148 ____ 368

Frivolousz21 ____________ 64 ___ 38 ___ 72 __ 174 ___ 20 ___ 80___ 22 ___ 124 _ 298

___ 1% pen ____________ 63 ___ 38 ___ 71 __ 172 ___ 20 ___ 79 ___ 24 ___ 123 ____ 295

Wx Hype (CTBlizz) _______ 74 ___ 60 ___ 62 __ 196 ___ 38 ___ 54 ___ 42 ___ 134 _ 330

____ 19% pen __________ 60 ___ 48 ___ 51 __ 159 ___ 31 ___ 43 ___ 34 ___ 108 ____ 267

H2OtownWx ____________ 52 ___ 52 ___ 64 __168____ 96 ___ 16 ___ 24 ___ 136 _ 304

___ 32% pen ___________ 35 ___ 35 ___ 44 __ 114 ___ 66 ___ 11 ___ 17 ___ 094 ____ 208

 

 

(edited July 17th to show revised penalties)

[wxdude64]

Will Midlo overtake Rodney for overall 1st after May?

It looks like it's gonna be REALLY close!

[RodneyS]

Will Midlo overtake Rodney for overall 1st after May?

It looks like it's gonna be REALLY close!

And you're going to be breathing down our necks.  I need to work on Chicago.

[MN Transplant]

And you're going to be breathing down our necks.  I need to work on Chicago.

You aren't the only one. In Roger's last update I tied for the lead in the traditional 3 and was dead last at ORD. 

[Roger Smith]

For those who haven't dropped in recently, post 47 above shows the provisional scoring based on estimates of finishing values for anomalies ... currently looks to me like BOS and possibly NYC could add a couple of tenths with their 90+ highs, but I won't bother to adjust the numbers until tomorrow when I have final confirmation. The other numbers used for these estimates should be fairly close now.

 

Meanwhile, if you scroll back to post 45 you'll find a round-up of severe weather forecast assessments, Potter, Ellinwood and MNT had three of the best ones in my subjective view and our consensus as a group was fairly good, it seemed to concentrate on second half of month and mentioned OK as often as anywhere. The actual results were tracked in a previous post along with daily anomalies.

 

I hope to have the final scores and my version of the cumulative table up during the afternoon or evening on Saturday. Don't forget to enter the June contest.

[Roger Smith]

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

____________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________


Forecaster ............ ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score
________________________________________________________________________________
....Annual (cum) values ......... +0.7 .. --0.2 .. +0.6 ........ ... --0.8 .. --0.2 .. --0.3 ................ Best score awards

__________________________________________________________________________________(for months)

01 RODNEY S ......................398 .. 350 .. 408 .....1156 .... .... 273 .. 288 ... 340 ..... 901 ..... 2057 ___ CL+ ORD
02 MIDLO SNOW MAKER ..... 352 .. 336 .. 394 .....1082 .... .... 267 .. 306 .. 398 ..... 971 ..... 2053 ___BOS,NYC,IAH+,EX
03 WXDUDE64 .................... 362 .. 384 .. 400 .....1146 .... .... 301 .. 252 .. 320 ..... 873 ...... 2019 _____ CL,NYC,3
04 DONSUTHERLAND1 ........ 294 .. 334 .. 404 .....1032 .... .... 255 .. 288 .. 346 ..... 889 ...... 1921 _____ BOS,IAH
05 MN TRANSPLANT ........... 330 .. 416 .. 414 .....1160 .... .... 175 .. 273 .. 286 ..... 734 ..... 1894 _____ NYC
06 SACRUS ........................ 312 .. 350 .. 384 .....1046 .... .... 240 .. 219 .. 318 ..... 777 ..... 1823 ____ BOS+ORD, 4

(07) Normal ...................... 284 .. 366 .. 390 .....1040 .... .... 234 .. 246 .. 296 ..... 776 ..... 1816 ______ ATL+ NYC
 

07 SKIERINVERMONT ......... 347 .. 363 .. 392 ....1102 .... .... 239 .. 240 .. 227 ..... 706 ..... 1808 ______ IAH

(08) Consensus ................... 324 .. 330 .. 416 ....1070 .... ..... 185 .. 207 ... 328 ..... 720 ..... 1790_____ DCA,BOS+

08 BKVIKING ....................... 282 .. 294 .. 402 ..... 978 .... .... 254 .. 214 .. 306 ..... 774 ...... 1752_____ DCA
09 MALLOW ....................... 318 .. 334 .. 376 .....1028 .... .... 138 .. 250 .. 328 ..... 716 ..... 1744 _____ ATL,IAH, 1

10 BLAZESS556 .................. 294 .. 308 .. 392 ..... 994 .... .... 261 .. 192 .. 280 ..... 733 ..... 1727

 

11 SD ................................ 294 .. 342 .. 394 .....1030 .... .... 263 .. 192 .. 228 ..... 683 .... 1713 ______ ORD

12 STEBO .......................... 266 .. 338 .. 396 .....1000 .... .... 260 .. 182 .. 266 ..... 708 ..... 1708
13 UNCLE W ........................ 254 .. 324 .. 348 ..... 926 .... ... 193 .. 238 .. 332 ..... 763 ..... 1689 ______ ATL

14 INUDAW ........................ 308 .. 326 .. 418 ....1052 .... .... 211 .. 129 .. 288 ..... 628 ..... 1680

15 ELLINWOOD ................... 286 .. 294 .. 358 ..... 938 .... ... 185 .. 219 .. 282 ...... 686 ..... 1624
 

16 CHICAGO_WX ................ 284 .. 300 .. 382 ..... 966 .... .... 199 .. 173 .. 280 ..... 652 ..... 1618 ____ CL,DCA,BOS
17 TOM .............................. 238 .. 308 .. 370 ..... 916 .... .... 253 .. 154 .. 268 ..... 675 ..... 1591
18 ISOTHERM ..................... 294 .. 276 .. 322 ..... 892 ..... .... 120 .. 183 .. 338 ..... 641 ...... 1533 ____ EX,BOS, 5
19 H2OTOWN_WX .............. 297 .. 289 .. 352 ..... 938 .... .... 140 .. 196 .. 235 ..... 571 ...... 1509 ______ CL, BOS+ ATL
20 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS.. 309 .. 285 .. 345 ..... 939 .... .... 93 .. 173 .. 232 ...... 498 ..... 1437

21 GOOBAGOOBA ............... 258 .. 250 .. 300 ..... 808 .... ... 190 .. 143 .. 288 ..... 621 ..... 1429 ______ DCA
22 DEREK Z ........................ 258 .. 204 .. 272 ..... 734 .... ... 122 .. 214 .. 328 ..... 664 ..... 1398 ______ EX,ATL
23 ROGER SMITH ................ 238 .. 230 .. 302 ..... 770 .... ... 181 .. 168 .. 206 ..... 555 ..... 1325 ______ BOS,ORD,IAH

24 CHICAGO STORM ........... 235 .. 277 .. 343 ..... 855 .... .... 90 .. 117 .. 246 ..... 453 ..... 1308

25 WXHYPE ......................... 243 .. 217 .. 231 ..... 691 .... ... 201 .. 156 .. 248 ..... 605 ...... 1296 ___IAH,EX,DCA,ORD

26 HUDSONVALLEY21* ...... 250 .. 270 .. 252 ..... 772 .... ... 166 .. 168 .. 178 ..... 512 ...... 1284
27 SRAIN* ........................... 200 .. 264 .. 320 ..... 784 .... .... 129 .. 156 .. 212 ..... 497 ..... 1281

28 NZUCKER* ..................... 191 .. 257 .. 241 ..... 689 .... ... 184 .. 193 .. 201 ..... 578 ..... 1267 _____ NYC
29 FRIVOLOUSZ21* ............. 258 .. 225 .. 289 ..... 772 .... ... 175 .. 155 ... 159 ..... 489 ..... 1261 _____ NYC, ORD
30 I.NEED.SNOW** ............. 249 .. 261 .. 215 ..... 725 .... ... 192 .. 171 .. 132 .... 495 ..... 1220 _____ CL,EX,DCA,ATL,2
 

31 MR TORCHEY* ............... 242 .. 228 .. 250 ..... 720 .... .... 129 .. 149 .. 188 ..... 466 ..... 1186 _____ BOS, ATL
32 ANDY HB*** ................... 166 .. 188 .. 170 .... 524 .... ... 100 .. 132 .. 102 ...... 334 ...... 858
33 METALICWX366*** .......... 143 .. 149 .. 139 .... 431 .... ... 107 .. 131 .. 94 ..... 332 ...... 763
34 WEATHERDUDE**............ 101 .. 134 .. 183 .... 418 .... .... 74 ... 98 .. 132 ..... 304 ...... 722
35 CPICK79***...................... 126 ... 78 .. 158 .... 362 .... .... 99 .. 104 .. 86 ..... 289 ....... 651
 

36 SKISHEEP***..................... 66 ... 98 .. 150 .... 314 .... ..... 79 ... 86 .. 138 ...... 303 ..... 617
37 BRAD1551***.................... 74 .. 118 ..100 ..... 292 .... ..... 64 ... 68 ...162 ..... 294 ...... 586 ______ NYC
38 OHLEARY**** ................... 96 ... 90 ... 90 .... 276 .... ..... 58 ... 76 ... 96 ..... 230 ...... 506
39 EDUARDO**** .................. 92 ... 88 ... 90 .... 270 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 92 ..... 212 ...... 482
40 MIKE VENTRICE**** ......... 66 ... 78 ... 74 .... 218 .... ..... 66 ... 90 ... 82 ..... 238 ...... 456

41 QVECTORMAN*** ............ 150 ... 60 ... 82 .... 292 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 12 ..... 132 ...... 424 _____ DCA
42 B.IRVING****.................... 94 ... 70 ... 96 ..... 260 .... ..... 70 ... 74 ... 12 ..... 156 ...... 416
43 ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY****.. 80 ... 78 ... 82 ..... 240 .... ..... 25 ... 50 ... 86 ...... 161 ...... 401
44 WESTWIND*** ................. 44 ... 80 .. 116 .... 240 .... ..... 30 ... 11 .. 112 ...... 153 ...... 393
45 LONGISLANDWX****.......... 56 ... 52 ... 82 ..... 190 .... ..... 72 ... 28 ... 90 ...... 190 ...... 380

46 BRIAN 5671**** ................ 68 ... 96 ... 68 ..... 232 .... ..... 36 ... 72 ... 18 ..... 126 ...... 358
47 HOCKEYINC**** ................ 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170 .... ..... 88 ... 44 ... 28 ..... 160 ...... 330
48 NYCSUBURBS**** ............. 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 .... ..... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ...... 322
49 STORMITECTURE**** ........ 29 ... 54 ... 94 ..... 177 .... ..... 02 ... 00 ... 74 ..... 076 ..... 253
50 SHADES**** ...................... 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 .... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238
 

51 TSTEEL**** ....................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 .... ..... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ...... 209
52 WHITEOUTMD**** ............ 24 ... 30 ... 40 ..... 094 .... ..... 26 ... 02 ... 72 ..... 100 ...... 194
53 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA**** 30 . 28 . 32 ..... 090 .... ..... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 190
54 69APORCUPINE**** ........... 02 ... 00 ... 06 ..... 008 .... ..... 00 ... 12 ... 12 ..... 024 ...... 032
55 OKIE333**** ..................... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 .... ..... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ...... 010

_____________________________________________________________________________________


* asterisks show how many months a forecaster has missed ... no asterisk, has been in every month

"Best score" awards are listed first by cumulative best scores from this table, and then by all best scores for stations and groups every month entered.

Monthly winners so far are Mallow (Jan) I.need.snow (Feb) wxdude64 (Mar) and Sacrus (Apr). This is coded into the table by number of the month (in the monthly column).

The annual temp is the running average without weighting for different length of the months.

 

 

(edited July 17th to revise penalty scores)

[Roger Smith]

Okay, all scoring is done, except for any adjustments that crop up when the better table is ready (I am using the excel file and double checking so I hope this will be minimal).

 

We have a tie at the top (see previous post) now with MidloSnowMaker catching up to RodneyS, and then wxdude64 is within a handful of points per station. In general I think the race has tightened up a bit with many in the pack making a move this past month. Scores were quite high for the "classic" division and MNT's 290 is probably one of the higher scores ever seen for that contest (consensus did almost as well).

 

If you're wondering where the May scores are, scroll back a few posts, I had a post with estimated values up for the last week. And there's a highly subjective roundup of the severe weather forecasts. My impression was that Pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT and Chicago Storm had the best four forecasts based on both location and severity.

 

Here's an interesting bit of trivia. Our group scores for the new "expanded" division are on average about two-thirds of the scores for the classic division. Stated a different way, 59.7% of all points earned so far have been for classic division sites. The only contestant who has a higher cumulative score for the expanded division than classic is May-only Mike Ventrice. The regular with the best ratio (91%) of expanded to classic score is DerekZ. The lowest ratios are about 60%.

[MN Transplant]

Okay, all scoring is done, except for any adjustments that crop up when the better table is ready (I am using the excel file and double checking so I hope this will be minimal).

 

We have a tie at the top (see previous post) now with MidloSnowMaker catching up to RodneyS, and then wxdude64 is within a handful of points per station. In general I think the race has tightened up a bit with many in the pack making a move this past month. Scores were quite high for the "classic" division and MNT's 290 is probably one of the higher scores ever seen for that contest (consensus did almost as well).

 

If you're wondering where the May scores are, scroll back a few posts, I had a post with estimated values up for the last week. And there's a highly subjective roundup of the severe weather forecasts. My impression was that Pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT and Chicago Storm had the best four forecasts based on both location and severity.

 

Here's an interesting bit of trivia. Our group scores for the new "expanded" division are on average about two-thirds of the scores for the classic division. Stated a different way, 59.7% of all points earned so far have been for classic division sites. The only contestant who has a higher cumulative score for the expanded division than classic is May-only Mike Ventrice. The regular with the best ratio (91%) of expanded to classic score is DerekZ. The lowest ratios are about 60%.

 

Is it too late to vociferously object to expanding the contest to the new sites?

[Roger Smith]

It's a thrilling race now between Normal and Consensus, but I would imagine that "New Normal" posting +0.5 for every forecast would be even higher in the table.

 

This month proves that the average is not always the same as the trend, I think for IAH and ATL the first week was so anomalously cold that the general warmth of the rest of the month could not quite overcome the head start. Even I could beat Usain Bolt if I could start far enough up the track (let's say 60 metres).

 

(June 3 11 p.m.)

 

UPDATE on scoring ... BOS decided that the high on the 31st was 94 and not 93 as previously reported, which changed the anomaly from 0.9 as reported to +1.0 (I would not have noticed except that I was harvesting data on the June bonus question concerning max temp so far this year). Anyway, this has led to a 2 point change in all scores, mostly up, a few down. You may notice that some minor adjustments were necessary in ranks and high score awards.