Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 There is no doubt is he allowing for a flip. I think his "stay the course" philosophy of forecasting is a strength I like that he refuses to flip based on any individual model runs and certainly with the models (See 12z vs 0z Euro) doing their thing with this storm..I agree with his no reason to change this AM stance. That said I also this his philosophy is his biggest weakness as this stay the course philosophy morphs into stubborness. This causes him to stick with a given forecast of his for way too long and talk of the ways this can still happen. One thing for sure this "well respected met" always generates interest and clearly plenty of revenue for his company.... Jesus are you going to Marry JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I am not a huge fan is JB's but the guy called this current pattern months ago. As for this current storm I am shocked he won't let go yet. NO he did nothing of the kind. he called for the eman trhough and cold tombe in the wast in NOV and it never came... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I've noticed on this board everytime a model flips you hear even mets who were previously gung ho about a storm saying it's over, there's more to being a forecaster than just reading every model run. JB looks at the whole picture. and often always gets it wrong tell me how ... what about his call for 7 Hurricanes to Hit the US in 2010? 2 of those 7 would be category 3 4 or 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NO he did nothing of the kind. he called for the eman trhough and cold tombe in the wast in NOV and it never came... I totally and respectfully disagree with you. Where not talking about his hurricane forecast here where talking about him calling the current pattern and I am shocked I am sticking up for him right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I totally and respectfully disagree with you. Where not talking about his hurricane forecast here where talking about him calling the current pattern and I am shocked I am sticking up for him right now. Enjoy Pissing your money away to subscribing to his items on Accuweather, enjoy making them more money and you wasting it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Enjoy Pissing your money away to subscribing to his items on Accuweather, enjoy making them more money and you wasting it away. No brother not pissing my money away I need another vendor to back up the models when wright weather goes down, Joe happens to be included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No brother not pissing my money away I need another vendor to back up the models when wright weather goes down, Joe happens to be included. No Brother? hummm. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Enjoy Pissing your money away to subscribing to his items on Accuweather, enjoy making them more money and you wasting it away. He gets his local forecast from watching Tom Skilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Enjoy Pissing your money away to subscribing to his items on Accuweather, enjoy making them more money and you wasting it away. if you are just a weather enthusiast paying anybody for weather info is foolish so much free stuff and professional opinions available............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Indignant post from JB today--trashing his detractors and saying he only needs "to fill in the gaps" to get his white x-mas--what a joke. Can't believe I pay $$ for this s*it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 He gets his local forecast from watching Tom Skilling. And your get yours from News 12. I promise myself I was going to behave on this board. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Indignant post from JB today--trashing his detractors and saying he only needs "to fill in the gaps" to get his white x-mas--what a joke. Can't believe I pay $ for this s*it Not bashing you personally, but I don't understand why anybody does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 JB is the PT Barnum of wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Indignant post from JB today--trashing his detractors and saying he only needs "to fill in the gaps" to get his white x-mas--what a joke. Can't believe I pay $ for this s*it I can't wait for Saturday AM..."Chirstmas to you, Saturday to me" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 And your get yours from News 12. I promise myself I was going to behave on this board. Merry Christmas. Actually, I make my own forecasts . I don't want you to misbehave here either, so Merry Christmas to you too Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 JB states this AM that he has no changes based on the overnight runs. The one model that he states has been conistent is the JMA (continues the trend to the coast) JB has not wavered once from his forecast of a coastal storm with the greatest impacts S and E of the I95 corridor all week. Should be an interesting day "as the models turn..." How is JB better than the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have never heard anyone say he is "better" than the NWS....I personally think my area (Mt Holly) has the best NWS team anywhere!! They are tremendous and for me they are my ultimate source for forecasts. However, It is not a competition between NWS and Accu-weather or NJ PA Weather etc. They are all in my humble opinion great resources for the weather and I use and enjoy all of them. JB is tremendous for long range pattern recognition. Plus the Accu Weather site is a great value....for me. But if you don't agree by all means don't buy it. I have for years and it is an excellent resource. How is JB better than the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Disruptive storm from plains to east coast for Christmas weekend this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this am Stay Tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Actually, I make my own forecasts . I don't want you to misbehave here either, so Merry Christmas to you too Tony. Hi Scott... Great to see you here !! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Is the storm possible? Yes. However, guys be careful with getting too worked up for the Christmas storm. This is another phase situation type storm. If anything is off in the timing, there are going to be a lot of disappointed people again, just like this weekend. So patience and please let's not get worked up over the 18Z GFS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Is the storm possible? Yes. However, guys be careful with getting too worked up for the Christmas storm. This is another phase situation type storm. If anything is off in the timing, there are going to be a lot of disappointed people again, just like this weekend. So patience and please let's not get worked up over the 18Z GFS. lol it's only make believe at this time...There will be a storm but where will it track?..At least there is a chance as of now for a Christmas Storm...I don't get excited until 24hrs before any such event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ... please let's not get worked up over the 18Z GFS. lol Very well said. I'd also add the (unpopular) disclaimer about not getting worked up over the 0z Euro either. Everything has to come together just right for a big storm, and La Niña history, model spread, and recent experience all suggest caution. My guess is that the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions remain in the game for a moderate snowstorm (3"-6"/4"-8" variety), but there remains greater risk of a lesser snowfall than a larger one. Hopefully, of course, things will work out toward the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Is the storm possible? Yes. However, guys be careful with getting too worked up for the Christmas storm. This is another phase situation type storm. If anything is off in the timing, there are going to be a lot of disappointed people again, just like this weekend. So patience and please let's not get worked up over the 18Z GFS. lol The GFS has this system something like 12 runs in a row and counting, while I agree I would bet my house on it I am sure you would agree in your professional opinion it should be monitored closely, huge holiday travel weekend coming up by the way. By the way we know where in trouble when the media and the weather channel catches on to this then we will really be screwed for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 all we need in an inch of snow for an official White Christmas in NY....Preferably at least 1" on the ground Christmas morning...The last time we had snow falling around midnight Christmas eve was 2002...The last time there was over 6" of snow on the ground at 7am was 1966... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yes but the last 3 or 4 runs the GFS has looked a lot different from suppressed to showing a coastal rainstorm, so having the storm and having the storm in the same place are two very different things. Hopefully we'll be a little more confident by Wednesday or Thursday but no sense in jumping the gun just yet The GFS has this system something like 12 runs in a row and counting, while I agree I would bet my house on it I am sure you would agree in your professional opinion it should be monitored closely, huge holiday travel weekend coming up by the way. By the way we know where in trouble when the media and the weather channel catches on to this then we will really be screwed for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK_62 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 all we need in an inch of snow for an official White Christmas in NY....Preferably at least 1" on the ground Christmas morning...The last time we had snow falling around midnight Christmas eve was 2002...The last time there was over 6" of snow on the ground at 7am was 1966... I believe this event on 12/25/2002 was rain changing to snow about 3PM. There was then a mini-6hr. blizzard of wind driven snow totalling 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah unless it was a snow to rain to snow situation I don't think there was any snow on the ground on Christmas morning (I was out of town and missed the event unfortunately) I believe this event on 12/25/2002 was rain changing to snow about 3PM. There was then a mini-6hr. blizzard of wind driven snow totalling 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah unless it was a snow to rain to snow situation I don't think there was any snow on the ground on Christmas morning (I was out of town and missed the event unfortunately) it snowed lightly and from midnight to around 5am and left a dusting before it changed to rain...The 3" I got imby came in the afternoon and early evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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