ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB states this AM that he has no changes based on the overnight runs. The one model that he states has been conistent is the JMA (continues the trend to the coast) JB has not wavered once from his forecast of a coastal storm with the greatest impacts S and E of the I95 corridor all week. Should be an interesting day "as the models turn..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB states this AM that he has no changes based on the overnight runs. The one model that he states has been conistent is the JMA (continues the trend to the coast) JB has not wavered once from his forecast of a coastal storm with the greatest impacts S and E of the I95 corridor all week. Should be an interesting day "as the models turn..." and he included this as his out if changes are needed And there wont be until tomorrow morning, if there need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Perhaps you did not read the portion of his column where he described the euro as ALARMING? Or how he stated he will not change anything until tomorrow....if he does have changes. That is like suggesting.....I have changes right now but would like to allow for further verification....so I can be really really really sure and not perceived as a flip flopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 There is no doubt is he allowing for a flip. I think his "stay the course" philosophy of forecasting is a strength I like that he refuses to flip based on any individual model runs and certainly with the models (See 12z vs 0z Euro) doing their thing with this storm..I agree with his no reason to change this AM stance. That said I also this his philosophy is his biggest weakness as this stay the course philosophy morphs into stubborness. This causes him to stick with a given forecast of his for way too long and talk of the ways this can still happen. One thing for sure this "well respected met" always generates interest and clearly plenty of revenue for his company.... quote name='SP' timestamp='1292590881' post='124160'] Perhaps you did not read the portion of his column where he described the euro as ALARMING? Or how he stated he will not change anything until tomorrow....if he does have changes. That is like suggesting.....I have changes right now but would like to allow for further verification....so I can be really really really sure and not perceived as a flip flopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Perhaps you did not read the portion of his column where he described the euro as ALARMING? Or how he stated he will not change anything until tomorrow....if he does have changes. That is like suggesting.....I have changes right now but would like to allow for further verification....so I can be really really really sure and not perceived as a flip flopper. thanks for posting what he REALLY said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is nothing new for JB-he won't pull the plug until it's obvious the threat is gone....which is likley after the 12Z models run today, look for a 4pm update saying no storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB is too stubborn to pull the plug on his calls really...has nothing to do with his MET skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Agree...like I said this is his biggest weakness...he is way too stubborn and sticks with this forecast way too long. But don't worry...he will have another "threat" to talk about at the same time he cancels this threat which will support his 50% of the country White Christmas forecast.... This is nothing new for JB-he won't pull the plug until it's obvious the threat is gone....which is likley after the 12Z models run today, look for a 4pm update saying no storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Agree...like I said this is his biggest weakness...he is way too stubborn and sticks with this forecast way too long. But don't worry...he will have another "threat" to talk about at the same time he cancels this threat which will support his 50% of the country White Christmas forecast.... I think there is a fine line between being stubborn and flip flopping like a fish out of water. Some mets are nothing more than model readers. he definitely is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 fwiw in its prelim extended disco HPC pretty much said something similar...that because of model run to run inconsistency its too early to write it off. I think 12z will kill this though. HPC also trimmed 4" and 8" prob coverage back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think there is a fine line between being stubborn and flip flopping like a fish out of water. Some mets are nothing more than model readers. he definitely is not. I've noticed on this board everytime a model flips you hear even mets who were previously gung ho about a storm saying it's over, there's more to being a forecaster than just reading every model run. JB looks at the whole picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've noticed on this board everytime a model flips you hear even mets who were previously gung ho about a storm saying it's over, there's more to being a forecaster than just reading every model run. JB looks at the whole picture. JB looks at his hits on his site and he knows no storm equals no hits. Thats why he constantly calls for these monster storms throwing 1996 analogs ect. all the time. I cant believe people dont see this and pay for his garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 when the models have been as inconsistent as this week its important to follow a lagged average consensus...so last night that would have meant a light snow brushing the I-95 corridor with SE NE getting in on some decent snow. Since that time however, their is not even a good consensus for a consolidated low until its well OTS. As much as I would love to continue to say that there is still time...at some point the reality needs to step in. Big dissapointement with this storm. Let's try to remember this later in the year when the euro is the only model showing a MECS and the rest are out to sea 72hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB looks at his hits on his site and he knows no storm equals no hits. Thats why he constantly calls for these monster storms throwing 1996 analogs ect. all the time. I cant believe people dont see this and pay for his garbage I won't pay for that either. Going to the extreme like he does makes him look less credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 One thing for sure this "well respected met" always generates interest and clearly plenty of revenue for his company.... Just to clarify, JB works for AccuWeather not for "his company". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB must be the worst storm forecaster in the business. He is decent with patterns, but with individual storms, he is pretty bad. This is a pretty big bust for the SR Met at Accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB must be the worst storm forecaster in the business. He is decent with patterns, but with individual storms, he is pretty bad. This is a pretty big bust for the SR Met at Accuweather This is a big bust for anyone who believed the euro yesterday, including me, and including you I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not so sure if at least an advisory threat is busted yet, Mt.Holly clearly wants to wait until 18Z runs before pulling the plug: "INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GFS, 7 OF 12 OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE PHL CWA. THE CAN GGEM ENSEMBLE SERIES IS ABOUT 8 OF 20. THERE WAS ONE MEMBER IN EACH CLUSTER THAT WAS FORECASTING A DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW EVENT. SO WHILE THE FAMILIES OF MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM A GREATER IMPACT EVENT, THE FORECAST NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND JET STREAK WOULD STILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BACKING INTO OUR CWA. WE DID LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT, BUT NOT AS LOW AS ONE WOULD GO BASED ON JUST THE OP MODELS. THE 12Z MODEL RUN SUITE HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FASTER PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS AND FOR CONFIDENCE SAKE DO NOT WANT TO WHIPLASH THE FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN PACKAGE. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF PUSHED THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE EAST AT NJ`S LATITUDE, THE TO PHASE OR NOT TO PHASE SHORT WAVES ARE LESS THAN HALF THAT DISTANCE APART." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hi Mike Sorry - I meant his company....accuweather. Paul Just to clarify, JB works for AccuWeather not for "his company". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Will people ever learn that JB is a fraudulent marketer before he is a forecaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB is all about the $$$ with this one, but yet weenies continue to be led to slaughter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Will people ever learn that JB is a fraudulent marketer before he is a forecaster? The blame should be placed on accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 One of JB's worst busts of all time--"worst effects S And E of big cities, but some snow in the big cities" Verification will be partly sunny and breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB just tweeted "Looks like the Beastie is getting the best of me...heading further out to sea. Will wait before I FLIP on what looks like my FLOP." LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB just tweeted "Looks like the Beastie is getting the best of me...heading further out to sea. Will wait before I FLIP on what looks like my FLOP." LOL Why wait-it's over and he knows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Will people ever learn that JB is a fraudulent marketer before he is a forecaster? He's one of the better long range forecasters out there. Does he hype? Of course. I think we all do. And honestly, the public is much better off knowing about a threat then not knowing. I'm pretty neutral on JB. He's ok. Really good on the long range, not so much in the short range. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 One of JB's worst busts of all time--"worst effects S And E of big cities, but some snow in the big cities" Verification will be partly sunny and breezy not even CLOSE to one of his worst busts of all time. he made this call several days out and looks to be taking it back almost 2 days from the event. He has taken some horrid forecasts down to the final hour on several occasions that I remember. if anything, he is showing some humility this time by throwing in the towel on a sunday event on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I am not a huge fan is JB's but the guy called this current pattern months ago. As for this current storm I am shocked he won't let go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Throwing the weenies a consolation bone of 1-3 in a stripe 75 miles either side of a Morgantown, WV to Cape May line Tuesday afternoon. Hanging his verification hat on Christmas storm to fill in the I-95 snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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