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First risk categories for New ENgland

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

First risk Days for New England?  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. When will any part of New England see it's first slight risk of 2013?

    • Before May 1st
      2
    • Between May 2nd-8th
      1
    • Between May 8th-15th
      9
    • Between May 15th-22nd
      9
    • After May 22nd
      8

  2. 2. When will any part of New England see a moderate risk?

    • Before May 1st
      0
    • During the month of May
      3
    • During the month of June
      11
    • During the month of July
      9
    • During the month of August
      0
    • No mod risk
      6

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

I guessed second week of May and July.

 

I've been bashed for saying this, but I felt like the SPC was very bullish last year on severe outlooks for the Northeast. We'll see what happens this year...

 

I think we'll have a relatively slow start to the season, but that things could fire up by July. This is just a wild guess though.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

If Canada keeps staying as cold as it is through May and still cool into June, if we can get some a pattern to allow for warm/humid air to work into the region we could have some active periods.

 

 

I like the cold Canada with good snowpack still up there...but we just need to get high dewpoint air into the northeast. Could get some decent clashes in May if we get the right pattern. Usually early May is a bit too early for us.

 

I'm gonna guess mid May is when our first real threat comes along, but I'm sure a sliver of SW SNE or W SNE will tickle their way into a slight risk before then.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I like the cold Canada with good snowpack still up there...but we just need to get high dewpoint air into the northeast. Could get some decent clashes in May if we get the right pattern. Usually early May is a bit too early for us.

 

I'm gonna guess mid May is when our first real threat comes along, but I'm sure a sliver of SW SNE or W SNE will tickle their way into a slight risk before then.

 

It's pretty tough for us to get a really solid threat or potential prior to the last few weeks of May...it has happened before but chances usually come from the second to last week of May through June.  The first few weeks of July can also have some pretty solid events but after that the chances really begin to decrease.  

 

Often time early on we can get solid setups but just lack high dewpoint air and high enough temps to really maximize instability. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It's pretty tough for us to get a really solid threat or potential prior to the last few weeks of May...it has happened before but chances usually come from the second to last week of May through June.  The first few weeks of July can also have some pretty solid events but after that the chances really begin to decrease.  

 

Often time early on we can get solid setups but just lack high dewpoint air and high enough temps to really maximize instability. 

 

 

What are the dates of our first legit events in the past 6 or 7 years? I don't remember them well...

 

2007: May 22nd? (I recall a lot of hail reports this day)...edit: it was May 16th

2008: May 27th?

2009: May 29th

2010: I'm pretty sure we had one in early May but don't remember the date

2011: don't remember

2012: 5/29

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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Posted

What are the dates of our first legit events in the past 6 or 7 years? I don't remember them well...

 

2007: May 22nd? (I recall a lot of hail reports this day)...edit: it was May 16th

2008: May 27th?

2009: May 29th

2010: I'm pretty sure we had one in early May but don't remember the date

2011: don't remember

2012: 5/29

 

2011 we had an event on Friday, May 27th I believe...though it was more of an upstate NY/northern NE type deal but for SNE it was really June 1st.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

What are the dates of our first legit events in the past 6 or 7 years? I don't remember them well...

2007: May 22nd? (I recall a lot of hail reports this day)...edit: it was May 16th

2008: May 27th?

2009: May 29th

2010: I'm pretty sure we had one in early May but don't remember the date

2011: don't remember

2012: 5/29

May 4th 2010, we had a severe thunderstorm destroy over $50K of equipment on the roof of our building at UMass. Not a huge storm, but powerful outflow.

2011 had a decent squall line on 4/28. May was characterized by some smallish storms, heavy rain, maybe pea size hail? Fairly run of the mill storms on the 20th & 21st, 24th, 27th, and 28th. Something happened in June I think too.

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

May 4th 2010, we had a severe thunderstorm destroy over $50K of equipment on the roof of our building at UMass. Not a huge storm, but powerful outflow.

2011 had a decent squall line on 4/28. May was characterized by some smallish storms, heavy rain, maybe pea size hail? Fairly run of the mill storms on the 20th & 21st, 24th, 27th, and 28th. Something happened in June I think too.

 

:P Wiz selling hot dogs or whatever at a baseball game with an EF3 tornado going on.

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