TWCCraig Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Briefly hit 70 before the sea breeze front passed. Now temps are dropping and dew point in the low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 18z GFS still pretty dry for Mon/Tues. More precip the more SW you go. Decent warm up next weekend with 10C+ 850's and westerly winds. High pressure really dominates the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 18z GFS still pretty dry for Mon/Tues. More precip the more SW you go. Decent warm up next weekend with 10C+ 850's and westerly winds. High pressure really dominates the forecast. yeah pretty amazing turnaround from what the models were showing a couple days ago. gfs basically <.10" the next 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 yeah pretty amazing turnaround from what the models were showing a couple days ago. gfs basically <.10" the next 8 days ..last i checked here (thurs nite)..it was doom and gloom for next week(E wind,low clouds/fog..etc) but thats a nice turnaround..hope it holds. dense fog..44* here in eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 NAM wants to drench the area with over an inch of rain. GFS wants it to drizzle Monday night. Euro gives us a little shower. NAM might be underestimating the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 NAM wants to drench the area with over an inch of rain. GFS wants it to drizzle Monday night. Euro gives us a little shower. NAM might be underestimating the block. what block?... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 what block?... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html The lows which will be consolidating off of Atlantic Canada in the next few days, stopping up the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 From Upton: I AM NOT SURE I HAVE EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS A CLOSED H5 LOW FROM NEAR GREENLAND WED SWWD TO A POINT 300 MI E OF CAPE COD ON FRI THEN FURTHER SWD TO A POINT 600 MI E OF HATTERAS SAT. THE 00Z RUN IS VERY SIMILAR. Anyone have maps of that? Must be a heck of maritime HP up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Must be a heck of maritime HP up there. Huh? I don't quite follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 From Upton: I AM NOT SURE I HAVE EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS A CLOSED H5 LOW FROM NEAR GREENLAND WED SWWD TO A POINT 300 MI E OF CAPE COD ON FRI THEN FURTHER SWD TO A POINT 600 MI E OF HATTERAS SAT. THE 00Z RUN IS VERY SIMILAR. Anyone have maps of that? Must be a heck of maritime HP up there. The piece of energy drops down just east of the ridge axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 GFS has the same feature. Pretty cool.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Euro now has a half inch of rain for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Huh? I don't quite followI am assuming a strong block over Canadian maritimes is the cause of this kind of modeled retrogression. If I'm wrong, please let me know what's causing this. Always a student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 I am assuming a strong block over Canadian maritimes is the cause of this kind of modeled retrogression. If I'm wrong, please let me know what's causing this. Always a student. OK, maybe I didn't quite understand you. Usually when someone says "maritime hp" they mean a surface high which is situated to the northeast, bringing an onshore, maritime flow into the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 The GFS actually retrogrades the block overhead and brings the warm 850 temperature core (10c) into New England from the northwest http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 GFS is still bone dry for KISP for tomorrow's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Light rain right now. Temp is 54 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 After today, it will be dry for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Does a dry spring yields a wet summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Does a dry spring yields a wet summer? No. Statistically, a dry spring means nothing as far as a dry or wet summer, as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Does a dry spring yields a wet summer? One thing a dry spring is a good indicator for is a reduced mosquito population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 After today, it will be dry for a while ..nws has at zero precipitation thru sunday may 5th.. its pretty dry NOW...i'm thinking we'll see red flag warnings by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 The CFSv2 has an above average May and June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Had 0.18 rain here today...temp only got to 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 0.00" here. Big win on the GFS and GGEM. Fail for NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 0.00" here. Big win on the GFS and GGEM. Fail for NAM. What else is new with the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Does a dry spring yields a wet summer? Like famartin said, there's no clear connection. However, I will mention that April 1985 was very dry across the tri-state region and Hurricane Gloria hit the area that September. 1999 was rather dry in some areas and then Tropical Storm Floyd brought excessive rainfall that September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Like famartin said, there's no clear connection. However, I will mention that April 1985 was very dry across the tri-state region and Hurricane Gloria hit the area that September. 1999 was rather dry in some areas and then Tropical Storm Floyd brought excessive rainfall that September... I did a single site (Central Park, since that's all most people care about) comparison. 1999 was actually in the middle third when I divided up springs between driest, middle and wettest. For Bridgeport (shorter period of record), 1999 just barely gets into the drier third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 This spring has been excellent so far, actually dead on near normal. Spring is supposed to be one of the nicest, if not the nicest, most pleasant season with long days and milder temperatures that have yet to reach uncomfortable levels. Very little, if any rain is forecast for the next 7 days, so it's a slight concern. Yesterday's couple tenths of an inch were good for washing away some of that pollen, but not enough to repair the fairly dry conditions this month. I would be more concerned if we get barely get any rain the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I did a single site (Central Park, since that's all most people care about) comparison. 1999 was actually in the middle third when I divided up springs between driest, middle and wettest. For Bridgeport (shorter period of record), 1999 just barely gets into the drier third. I only looked at two stations across Connecticut and while April 1999 was the driest on record for Windsor Locks, Conn., it just ranked 7th driest near Bridgeport. Perhaps it was drier northeast and wetter southwest. Also, the month of April isn't exactly representative of an entire season. The 1999/1985 stats are fun tidbits to think about, but there's not much science between any legitimate correlations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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