Spring in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut Banter Thread

[MJO812]

62 here

[bluewave]

A prolonged onshore flow should develop next week with a very strong blocking high over Canada

and a possible subtropical low down around Florida.

 

 

 

[jm1220]

A prolonged onshore flow should develop next week with a very strong blocking high over Canada

and a possible subtropical low down around Florida.

 

12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

Could be a situation where well up into Quebec can get into the 70s while we struggle in the 50s.

[bluewave]

Could be a situation where well up into Quebec can get into the 70s while we struggle in the 50s.

 

The forecast  looks like those areas could see +20 or higher departures.

 

[Allsnow]

did mos end up being to warm today?

[NJHurricane]

I miss tracking interesting weather on the models. This time of the year is quite boring.

I kinda dig spending 5 minutes a day after weeks of spending hours a day consulting the models and other sources

[TWCCraig]

I kinda dig spending 5 minutes a day after weeks of spending hours a day consulting the models and other sources

 

Agree. Much less stress as well. Weather still isn't 100% boring this time of year. I like to track the temps a lot. It's not as time consuming as tracking a possible winter storm 6 days out, only to end up not happening. I don't get how some only like to track snowstorms.

[famartin]

To me, the greatness of snow in winter is that it gives you something to do when there isn't much else to do.  It fills the void.  So I can live without it during the warm season. 

[Santa Claus]

A lot of the weather around this time of year does not lend itself as well to model watching as those big extratropical cyclones delivering snow.  Although there's a certain joy in seeing if a model's simulated radar does well a day before a severe weather event.

 

Of course there's always tropical cyclone tracking

[Weathergun]

The models are looking increasingly, cooler and unsettled for next week. Thanks to the block developing over Quebec.

[MJO812]

54 right now. Beautiful.

[Isotherm]

First 10 days of May looking more miserable by the minute. ULL over the Lakes could yield a major reversal in pcpn departures over the coming weeks. Hvy rain threat next week w/ sub tropical feed connection along the east coast. Prior to that, most of next week looks cool, damp, and nasty for early May standards.

We'll almost make it out of April with nice weather, but we go downhill rapidly by the 30th.

Signs of potentially the first 90F readings arriving in the May 12th-15th period, but that's a long ways off.

[SACRUS]

First 10 days of May looking more miserable by the minute. ULL over the Lakes could yield a major reversal in pcpn departures over the coming weeks. Hvy rain threat next week w/ sub tropical feed connection along the east coast. Prior to that, most of next week looks cool, damp, and nasty for early May standards.

We'll almost make it out of April with nice weather, but we go downhill rapidly by the 30th.

Signs of potentially the first 90F readings arriving in the May 12th-15th period, but that's a long ways off.

 

 

I was waiting for that signal from overall dry to deluge and we may be seeing a very wet week to open may.   Enoy this weather and sun while you can

[bluewave]

We'll have to see how strong the high to the north verifies as the Euro keeps us on the northern

edge of the rainfall. It may be a situation were we get socked in with low clouds and light rain/drizzle

but not heavy enough to put a dent in the dry conditions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

I'm wondering if this ends up being a case where we go from rather dry and below precip conditions to well above normal, even flooding rains.

The gfs has been showing this toward the end of next week.

Highs have also been lowered after the weekend to mostly near 60 due to the onshore flow, perhaps could be stuck in the 50s near the coast, def east of the city.

[Stormlover74]

I'm wondering if this ends up being a case where we go from rather dry and below precip conditions to well above normal, even flooding rains.

The gfs has been showing this toward the end of next week.

Highs have also been lowered after the weekend to mostly near 60 due to the onshore flow, perhaps could be stuck in the 50s near the coast, def east of the city.

the gfs is only showing an inch of rain right now spread out over a couple days but it wouldn't surprise me if we get into a wetter pattern overall

[forkyfork]

We'll have to see how strong the high to the north verifies as the Euro keeps us on the northern

edge of the rainfall. It may be a situation were we get socked in with low clouds and light rain/drizzle

but not heavy enough to put a dent in the dry conditions.

 its ensemble mean brings the low much further north

[Sundog]

 its ensemble mean brings the low much further north

 

That's fine. We need the rain around here. It's getting pretty dry.

[jm1220]

I was waiting for that signal from overall dry to deluge and we may be seeing a very wet week to open may.   Enoy this weather and sun while you can

The writing on the wall for a miserable, cold week came several days ago, but hopefully we can at least dent the dry spell we've been having I guess. Looks like a bad 5+ day stretch upcoming.

[bluewave]

 its ensemble mean brings the low much further north

 

It looked pretty close on the 0z, but we'll see if the 12z nudges a little further north.

 

[forkyfork]

It looked pretty close on the 0z, but we'll see if the 12z nudges a little further north.

 

MSLP_North32America_192.gif

the precip reached new england

[Radders]

12Z Op Euro seems to be holding on to the idea of a stronger blocking high to the NE and the precip stays shunted mostly to the south of the area (mid atlantic) aside from some light to mod qpf on Monday evening.

[bluewave]

12Z Op Euro seems to be holding on to the idea of a stronger blocking high to the NE and the precip stays shunted mostly to the south of the area (mid atlantic) aside from some light to mod qpf on Monday evening.

 

We may have to wait until  day 10-12 for a better chance of rain when we see what happens with the low over the SE.

 

[Radders]

We may have to wait until  day 10-12 for a better chance of rain when we see what happens with the low over the SE.

 

North32America_msl_228.gif

Yeah you can see how the blocking feature over NNE/SE Canada at 500mb holds strong on the Euro all the way through day 8-9

[Cfa]

I wish we had Houston's climate, but with snow.

[TWCCraig]

I wish we had Houston's climate, but with snow.

 

Houston is little too hot in the summer. I would prefer a climate like Savannah, GA in the summer and Watertown, NY in the winter.

[MJO812]

Big difference between the Euro and GFS

 

[Weathergun]

The 12z GFS shifted farther west, with cut-off low & block for next weekend.

 

Big difference between the Euro and GFS

 

[bluewave]

Expanded drought conditions into the region on the update this week from what things were like at the 

end of February.

 

2-26

 

 

4-23

 

[Stormlover74]

with light winds and full Sunshine it definitely feels warmer than 68 out there