Spring in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut Banter Thread

[doncat]

Got up to 81 here about 30 minutes ago with a sw wind.... winds have gone sse and temp down to 79.

[earthlight]

One could almost visualize two scenarios this afternoon

1) Area of convection develops over NY State, PA and moves on a more easterly heading through SE NY and CT before dropping southeast and weakning over Coastal CT, with the majority of the severe reports staying to the north of the area.

2) The area of convection develops farther south and west, south of BGM into NE PA and SE NY and then drops on a more southeasterly heading into SE NY, CT and N NJ. Strong winds and hail possible over NE PA, SE NY, W CT. The convection would likely struggle to remain organized south of MMU where the kinematics are lacking. We could probably see strong storms continue south of there with outflow boundaries helping to kick off new storms that are non-severe.

[WE GOT HIM]

Completely cleared out in Queens

- Temps starting to rise again (72)

[Cfa]

79 in Queens.

[H2Otown_WX]

81/68 in Danbury.

[Snowlover11]

82 in Bronxville

[Weathergun]

Severe T-storm Watch for Orange and Putnam county until 11pm:

 

 

[snywx]

The cell here in Orange county is just to my west.. Thunder is extremely loud but no rain or wind to speak of..

[SACRUS]

4PM Roundup;

 

TEB: 84

NYC: 81

EWR: 87

LGA: 80

JFK:  73

ISP:  72

New Bnswk: 86

TTN:  88

 

[Rtd208]

Currently 88 which is the high for the day.

 

 

[doncat]

Currently 88 which is the high for the day.

Yeah you guys just across the river from me are close to 90 but we've been near 80 with a sse wind.

[TWCCraig]

76/66 Perfect

[WE GOT HIM]

Up to 78 now (nice recovery)

[WE GOT HIM]

New HRRR is slightly more south with the tail end of the line. (looks really nasty for central NY / western MA)

[Cary]

Mount Holly:

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

806 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

NJZ007>010-012-013-015-017>020-022-027-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-

301215-

WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-

GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-

SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-

PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-

EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-

806 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN

NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG, GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF

HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES

AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95

RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 

The bolded implies that advisories may be going out, at least for interior New Jersey.

Mount Holly doesn't "imply" anything. They'll say it if they're considering advisories, which they don't appear to be doing attm.

[earthlight]

4km NAM gets NE NJ into the mid 90's tomorrow.

 

[bluewave]

First month at Central Park of 8.00" or more precip since September 2011.

[Stormlover74]

Mount Holly doesn't "imply" anything. They'll say it if they're considering advisories, which they don't appear to be doing attm.

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE LONGTERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR

THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA

THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER NOTABLE ISSUE COULD BE THE

POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES

DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO HELP BREAK DOWN THE HOT/SOMEWHAT HUMID

AIRMASS.

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE PLACE PROVIDING THE REGION

WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL

BE AT ITS STRONGEST ON FRIDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE

THE HOTTEST DAY OF POSSIBLE HEAT WAVE WITH SATURDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER

WITH MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN. THE RELATIVELY GOOD

NEWS IS THAT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER DRY EVEN THOUGH

THEY ARE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S. THE

COOLER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW THE HEAT INDICES TO ACTUALLY FEEL A

DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURE. GRANTED THIS MAY BE

THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT HEAT EPISODE OF THE YEAR, BUT STILL DECIDED

NOT TO ISSUE ANY HEAT RELATED HEADLINES AND WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE

HWO.

 

[bluewave]

The last time that NYC ended May with a 90 or higher was 2007.

[SACRUS]

The last time that NYC ended May with a 90 or higher was 2007.

 

5/26/2010: 92

5/31/2011: 89 (most other sites above 90)

5/28,29/2012: 89 (most surrounding sites above 90)

[SACRUS]

First month at Central Park of 8.00" or more precip since September 2011.

 

 

 

Fitting for the prior dry period to be followed by a soaking month.  Although, NYC and NNJ got the most this month with less than half the amounts in some other sites.

[SACRUS]

Looks like EWR will max at 87, NYC 85, TTN 88, PHL 89

[Rtd208]

Made it up to a high of 89, currently 87.

[famartin]

Looks like EWR will max at 87, NYC 85, TTN 88, PHL 89

EWR hit 88 and PHL hit 90.

[uncle W]

Got up to 81 here about 30 minutes ago with a sw wind.... winds have gone sse and temp down to 79.

my high was 81 also...80 now at 7pm...

[IsentropicLift]

Made it up to 88 here at KSJU

[earthlight]

One could almost visualize two scenarios this afternoon

1) Area of convection develops over NY State, PA and moves on a more easterly heading through SE NY and CT before dropping southeast and weakning over Coastal CT, with the majority of the severe reports staying to the north of the area.

2) The area of convection develops farther south and west, south of BGM into NE PA and SE NY and then drops on a more southeasterly heading into SE NY, CT and N NJ. Strong winds and hail possible over NE PA, SE NY, W CT. The convection would likely struggle to remain organized south of MMU where the kinematics are lacking. We could probably see strong storms continue south of there with outflow boundaries helping to kick off new storms that are non-severe.

 

Option 1 it is. 

[Weathergun]

Nice bow-echo MCS in Upstate NY:

 

 

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I installed my two ACs. I feel much cooler now.

[WE GOT HIM]

I installed my two ACs. I feel much cooler now.

lol same here (very late this year)