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Spring in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut Banter Thread


IsentropicLift

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it looks like a cool ending to April...The month could end up below normal...

Central Park is +1.1F going into today. We will need some decent negatives to get below normal but tonight's projected low of 36F should help as averages are up to 63/46. Monday and Tuesday also look chilly with onshore flow and maybe some sprinkles, with highs only reaching the mid 50s. If tomorrow is a -10 and Monday and Tuesday each -5, we will be dead on normal. It's going to be close.
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California-like out there today.  Just fantastic weather after a chilly start.  Guidance continues with below to normal temps the next week.  Some hint that the next strong warmup with some legs may arrive on/around 5/3.

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Generally near normal overall through D 7. Cool early this week, warm shot mid week, cool back down late week, followed by more warming the last few days of April.

 

NAEFS for D 8-14 are generally near to slightly warmer than normal as we move from late April into early May. Plenty of cold air in Canada right now, much moreso than recent. Canadian forecast anomalies are up to -4 SD in western Canada.

 

2013042100_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA

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California-like out there today.  Just fantastic weather after a chilly start.  Guidance continues with below to normal temps the next week.  Some hint that the next strong warmup with some legs may arrive on/around 5/3.

some analogs for May include 1965, 1970 and 1980...it was 90 on 5/4/1965...90 on 5/5/1980 and 90 on 5/9/1970...I'm expecting the first 90 in May this year...It could come early like these analog years...

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Generally near normal overall through D 7. Cool early this week, warm shot mid week, cool back down late week, followed by more warming the last few days of April.

NAEFS for D 8-14 are generally near to slightly warmer than normal as we move from late April into early May. Plenty of cold air in Canada right now, much moreso than recent. Canadian forecast anomalies are up to -4 SD in western Canada]

I thInk the next week averages a bit below normal. We will see if Central Park can knock off the +1 departure. With mid 30s last night and upper 30s tonight, that's a decent chunk right there. Averages are up to 63/46 and I don't see us getting there until at least Thursday. Monday and Tuesday shouldn't exceed mud 50s with clouds and onshore flow, which is close to -10. Would be nice to get three consecutive months below normal.
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some analogs for May include 1965, 1970 and 1980...it was 90 on 5/4/1965...90 on 5/5/1980 and 90 on 5/9/1970...I'm expecting the first 90 in May this year...It could come early like these analog years...

Any of those dates would be great timing as far as I'm concerned...

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That big cold anomaly focused over the upper midwest is a real outlier for April compared  the average over

the last decade.

 

 

Absolutely stunning reversal there. Minot, ND is at a -16.4F departure for April so far, with an average temperature of 24.6. For a comparison, March 2012 for Minot, ND was 41.5F. 

 

Only 6 days have actually been above freezing this month in Minot. Of those, 4 of the days were either 33 or 34F.

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Guest Pamela

I'm expecting the first 90 in May this year...It could come early like these analog years...

 

There won't be any 90's this year...well, maybe one or two at Newark Field. 

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Guest Pamela

In the whole summer? Or just May? No 90 degree days in a summer is highly unlikely. 2004 came close though, with only 2 90+ days the entire year.

 

Entire summer...the rubber band has snapped.

<Goes out on limb>

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HPN down to 44/28...my backyard is at 44.3/34. Should see some light frost around here with possible freezes to the north.

 

And yes, not a lot of warm weather to be seen on the 18z GFS. It definitely seems as if the rubber band may have snapped in terms of the unprecedented warmth we were dealing with month after month. 

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some hints of another blocking episode coming back in early May. I wonder if it will impact our temps negatively or positively

It gets to the point eventually that a -NAO can actually mean warm/hot weather for us, given the northward push of the jet streams as the spring goes on. But May is also known for dreary backdoor front episodes, even after Memorial Day. So there's much that is still possible.

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