IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Guidance suggests it will. I guess we'll have to wait for an additional 48 hours for a good cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The front pushed through here in Queens also around 4.45am (might be an outflow boundary from the storms in CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Temp down to 60.5 now (low of the day) I doubt we get anywhere near 90 at this point. - Wind is starting to shift back to the east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The Euro switched to a closed slow scenario as more energy cuts off in the base of the trough heading into the weekend. We can see very heavy rains ahead of this feature later Thursday into the weekend now as this this is going to be a much slower system. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The Euro switched to a closed slow scenario as more energy cuts off in the base of the trough heading into the weekend. We can see very heavy rains ahead of this feature later Thursday into the weekend now as this this is going to be a much slower system. 0z f96.gif 12z f96O.gif yea 06 4k showing this as well. Could be lots of training Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 yea 06 4k showing this as well. Could be lots of training The ensemble is a little more progressive, but the upper low still closes off near our area. We saw what can happen with a closed low earlier this month with the very heavy rains then. It's still a little uncertain which areas will see the best training since it will be important how far south the UL closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The GFS gives us a bad weekend..and now the Euro joins. Horrible..maybe monday will be the only nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The front pushed through here in Queens also around 4.45am (might be an outflow boundary from the storms in CT) Yeah it dropped 6 degrees at EWR between 6 and 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The GFS gives us a bad weekend..and now the Euro joins. Horrible..maybe monday will be the only nice day. Yeah. Euro has a good amount of rain everyday through Sunday, starting with tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 We are in a slight risk today per the latest SPC outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Temp down to 60.5 now (low of the day) I doubt we get anywhere near 90 at this point. - Wind is starting to shift back to the east though it's going to mix out quickly by noon and we'll jump back up. winds are starting to veer across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Yeah. Euro has a good amount of rain everyday through Sunday, starting with tonight. I had a feeling the earlier "sunny and 60's" forecasts for the holiday weekend seemed too good to be true. Not set in stone yet but looks like it's trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The NAM really missed the back door and is 15 degrees too warm for 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 it's going to mix out quickly by noon and we'll jump back up. winds are starting to veer across the region Do you have a good graphical source that shows the wind direction and is updated hourly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 If this 6z NAM is correct, drenching firehose coming on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 64.8F fog/mist still at 10am in Monmouth County. KDIX shows the backdoor well - currently sitting near Freehold just south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 We may really get into the 80s. Maybe for just 30 min at 5pm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 We may really get into the 80s. Maybe for just 30 min at 5pm lol Good. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The radar loop shows the line of convection that pushed the boundary down to Central New Jersey overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Still just 62 here...earlier 6z nam had us to 80 by 10am. 12z still has us in the 80's by 1pm... we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Based on current radar trends and obs, toss the 12z NAM, it's out to lunch temperature wise and precip wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The radar loop shows the line of convection that pushed the boundary down to Central New Jersey overnight. Yeah, the bdcf is still over W/CNJ as of 15z. Already triggering some convection near thePoconos: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 May 22, 2013: GOES East (-13) failed early this morning with no ETA on return-to-service. GOES-14 is being activated as a backup and imagery should begin flowing to this web site in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 64 and cloudy here, doubt we see the mid 80s forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 OKX trimming back on highs: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT REMAINS STALLEDOUT TO THE W AND S OF THE AREA. HRRR AND RAP ARE THE ONLY MODELS WITHANY CLUE TO ITS EXISTENCE. LOOKING AT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITEAND RAP SOUNDINGS...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HRRR/RAP SHOWING BOUNDARYPUSH BACK INTO FAR W ZONES AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT FORECAST CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWEREDTEMPERATURES AGAIN. NOW FORECASTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITHUPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON PERHRRR/RAP. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION FIRING W OF AREA...HAVE KEPTSLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THECWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THEMARINE INVERSION IN PLACE...SO THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON ISNIL ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 74F right now in Monmouth. My forecast high is revised to 74 on the point and click, but I think we're off to the races once we clear out. W NJ and PHL area is low 80s already. I think 80F is certainly doable for most from NYC southwestward. Probably not as warm as the mid to upper 80s we saw yesterday, but low to mid 80s still possible. Remember PHL area yesterday had cloud cover through early afternoon and still shot into the low 80s by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 17z analysis shows the front now over NYC. So maybe the RAP/HRRR are correct, about 80s later in NE NJ and Husdon Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Tornado warning Sullivan County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 https://twitter.com/BoKnowsWeather/status/337259180283015168/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 It's increasingly getting brighter here. Sun occasionally peaking through the clouds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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