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Spring in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut Banter Thread


IsentropicLift

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The models have a thunderstorm signal Wednesday with the frontal passage late in the day.

A 700 mb jet of 45kt+ coupled with elevated instability and a WNW flow could allow for some stronger

cells develop and race ESE with steep mid level lapse rates.

 

attachicon.gifSND.gif

It looks like the highest risk will be southwest of the City. A southeast to south wind is not ideal, but a few weakening storms could make it towards the coast.

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It looks like the highest risk will be southwest of the City. A southeast to south wind is not ideal, but a few weakening storms could make it towards the coast.

 

I agree, at this point. The 12z 4km NAM has small MCS passing to SW of NYC early tomorrow evening:

 

30ryao2.jpg

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I think it's the wind that didn't die down that didn't let us cool as much. Look at somervile, down to 31 with a calm wind and still calm with a cuurent temp of 34. Westhampton which beats or matches somerville all the time is at 45 with a decent wind but overnight when the winds went calm they dipped to 31.

 

So while the city was never going to get as low as the suburbs, places like east Queens and Nassau would have cooled off more if the winds had died down early.

Yea I agree the wind did us in also. Last night the best example for the heat island was in DC:

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It looks like the highest risk will be southwest of the City. A southeast to south wind is not ideal, but a few weakening storms could make it towards the coast.

 

The models have been jumping around with placement which is to be expected from a day or so out. 

 

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...24-HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD ESTABLISHED FOR THE STATE OF
CONNECTICUT...

THE BLIZZARD WHICH OCCURRED FEBRUARY 8 THROUGH 9 OF THIS YEAR
PRODUCED OVER TWO FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF CONNECTICUT. MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE RECEIVED OVER 30
INCHES OF SNOW.

AN OFFICIAL SNOWFALL MEASUREMENT...TAKEN IN ANSONIA...RECORDED 36.0
INCHES IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD...ECLIPSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 30.0
INCHES SET AT FALLS VILLAGE IN 1969. ANSONIA...OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED
AS ANSONIA 1 NE...IS LOCATED IN NEW HAVEN COUNTY AND IS AN
ESTABLISHED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION.
THIS STATION WAS ORIGINALLY ESTABLISHED IN 1941.

AS A RESULT OF THE RECORD BREAKING MEASUREMENT...A STATE CLIMATE
EXTREMES COMMITTEE WAS CONVENED TO ASSESS THE VALIDITY OF THE
OBSERVATION. THE COMMITTEE CONSISTED OF REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER AND
NORTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER. A REPORT WAS COMPILED...AND ON
APRIL 24...THE COMMITTEE MET AND UNANIMOUSLY VOTED TO RECOMMEND THIS
RECORD BE CERTIFIED BY THE DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER.

ON MAY 1...THE DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
CERTIFIED THIS RECORD...MAKING THE 36.0 INCHES OF SNOW RECORDED IN
ANSONIA THE OFFICIAL 24-HOUR STATE SNOWFALL RECORD FOR CONNECTICUT.

THIS RECORD AND OFFICIAL REPORT CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV/EXTREMES/SCEC/RECORDS (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

$

 

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Looks pretty warm after today, mostly 70s with a few days hitting 80F or higher. The 18z gfs looked fairly warm as well and quite stormy too. As far as 90F+ type heat, we still have some ways to go.

Hey 90's can wait, 70's and low 80's would be perfect for me and many others.
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35.5 this morning in Muttontown.

I don't think that station in Muttontown is accurate..

 - The NYIT station a little more than a mile west was 9 degrees warmer for the low. (its also been about 6 degrees cooler on average over the last few days vs near by stations)

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I don't think that station in Muttontown is accurate..

 - The NYIT station a little more than a mile west was 9 degrees warmer for the low. (its also been about 6 degrees cooler on average over the last few days vs near by stations)

Probably a local cold spot, but seems reasonable.  Westhampton was 30, and quite a few other spots in nearby Suffolk were down into the mid 30s.

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I don't think that station in Muttontown is accurate..

 - The NYIT station a little more than a mile west was 9 degrees warmer for the low. (its also been about 6 degrees cooler on average over the last few days vs near by stations)

Drive along Northern Blvd on a good radiational cooling night and the temp from CW Post (East of NYIT) to my parent's house in Muttontown off Brookville Road will be 5-8 degrees cooler and vice versa going West, I've seen it on my car thermometers since 2005 when they moved there.  Trust me, it's accurate & the location is a cold spot that is ideal for great radiational cooling.  Never beats KFOK though & I wouldn't expect it since it is a tad more urban.  Both my old VP1 & now my VP2 have been that way in the same spot on the property.

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Drive along Northern Blvd on a good radiational cooling night and the temp from CW Post (East of NYIT) to my parent's house in Muttontown off Brookville Road will be 5-8 degrees cooler and vice versa going West, I've seen it on my car thermometers since 2005 when they moved there.  Trust me, it's accurate & the location is a cold spot that is ideal for great radiational cooling.  Never beats KFOK though & I wouldn't expect it since it is a tad more urban.

That pretty impressive, I have to head out there one day.

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There are spots on LI where you can have a 6/7/8 degree temp change in just a few miles. KFOK and Westhamtpon Beach is one of them, can be 30 degrees at KFOK, 40 degrees right at the beach. The Sagtikos Pkwy has a mini heat island, car thermometers tend to rise several degrees when on the Sagtikos. Typical low to mid 90 degree day can be around 100 on the Sagtikos, I guess the pavement type really plays a factor in that. I've also noticed one time when we were on the Sagtikos during a light snow event that the snow was accumulating on the trees in the woods while the trees close to the pkwy had no snow accumulating on them. Moral of story, LI has very diverse microclimate, his reading in Muttontown is likely correct. My low last night was only 40.1.

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