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Spring in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut Banter Thread


IsentropicLift

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It's still 34F with light snow, and Kansas City is expecting a high of 35F tomorrow. That's a whopping 37 degrees below average, an incredibly impressive feat to pull off in any season, but espeially the warm season which has less variance.

Interestingly, the huge cold departures this spring in the Plains and Upper Midwest have not migrated east. March was moderately below normal here but our April was dead on average whereas the nation's midsection had widespread -10 anomalies.

And last year it was 86 on the same date

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last May NYC had measurable rainfall eight out of the first ten days of the month...We had so many crappy days in the spring over the last ten years or so...droughts suck especially during the summer...I hope we are not in for one...

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It looks like any heat won't come for another 10+ days, consistent high pressure off to the NE providing onshore flow and cool, but sunny conditions. This first week of May be end up slightly below average with cooler than normal temperatures expected, some of those lows could be very cool with ideal radiating conditions.

The ideal radiational cooling spots should get into the 30s, like parts of Monmouth County and the higher elevations of Orange County near Harriman State Park. The rest of us will be in the 40s by night and 60s by day, about average for early May. I've had frost as late as 5/10/2010 so this isn't unexpected but certainly welcome.

Tomorrow should be a bit cooler than today as the backdoor cold front penetrates southwest, associated with the upper-level energy near Greenland. May has a good shot of coming in with below normal temperatures and chances for precipitation remain scarce as has been the case since the 2/8 blizzard.

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According to the drought monitor, most of us are still in decent shape. We've had more rain in March than parts of SNE, especially CT so it'll still take some dryness before there is more concern. 

 

I don't mind the dry weather in April and early May especially with such pleasant temperatures, but as we get deeper into this month, the evaporation rates continue to increase and temperatures rise, which makes widespread rain events less frequent and could really speed up the dry conditions. 

 

So far, there's not much rain expected for the next 10 days. Droughts around here are rare, but it's been a while since we had one. 

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I think last year's spring drought was worse IMO. Some areas reached "Severe Drought"(D2) on the drought monitor page last year. March and April of last year were very dry until we had a drought denting storm around the 22nd of April. One thing that is different from last year is that this mini drought is coming later in the spring, when there is more evaporation and transpiration due to the warmer temps and higher sun angles. I'm not really worried about the drought yet, our next rain chance is sometime mid next week.

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We should get some rain as the SE low tracks up the coast next week.

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_144.gif

 

 

Maybe our first shot at May thunderstorms ahead of the cold front around day 9.

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_216.gif

 

A more active pattern, next week or two, with the MJO moving through phases 2 and 3. Which correlates to wetter than average for the East Coast:

 

dgtlhi.jpg

2meswh2.jpg

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it's been on the cool side so far this May but not near any records...These are the top 20 coldest May days on record for NYC...

ave temp...max min date...

38.5..........45....32....5/06/1891

38.5..........43....34....5/05/1891

40.0..........44....36....5/09/1977

42.0..........44....40....5/05/1917

42.5..........50....35....5/09/1947

42.5..........44....41....5/07/1967

43.0..........45....41....5/01/1917

43.0..........45....41....5/05/1978

43.5..........51....36....5/01/1876

43.5..........50....37....5/03/1911

43.5..........50....37....5/08/1947

43.5..........45....42....5/02/1962

44.0..........46....42....5/25/1967

44.0..........47....41....5/27/1961

44.0..........48....40....5/06/1917

44.5..........54....35....5/01/1880

44.5..........46....43....5/01/1893

45.0..........46....44....5/06/1958

45.0..........47....43....5/12/1882

45.0..........47....43....5/07/1958

 

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I know it was 82 back on April 8, but does anyone know the latest dates in the season for the first 80 degree day in CPK?    All time (since 1869) and the more recent record, say since 1980.  Thanks.

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I think last year's spring drought was worse IMO. Some areas reached "Severe Drought"(D2) on the drought monitor page last year. March and April of last year were very dry until we had a drought denting storm around the 22nd of April. One thing that is different from last year is that this mini drought is coming later in the spring, when there is more evaporation and transpiration due to the warmer temps and higher sun angles. I'm not really worried about the drought yet, our next rain chance is sometime mid next week.

Seems last above normal daily rainfall in CPK  was April 12.   Normal about   .14"/day.

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I know it was 82 back on April 8, but does anyone know the latest dates in the season for the first 80 degree day in CPK?    All time (since 1869) and the more recent record, say since 1980.  Thanks.

6/7/1924 and 5/23/1988.

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Impressive chill at night due to the excellent radiational cooling conditions and dry airmass overhead.

 

Here in Monmouth County, my lows since April 21st:

 

I've only had one night > 43.3 degrees in the last 2 weeks.

 

21st: 35.3

22nd: 30.4

23rd: 42.2

24th: 37.1

25th: 42.1

26th: 36.7

27th: 35.8

28th: 38.0

29th: 51.0

30th: 41.3

 

May 1st: 36.0

2nd: 37.0

3rd: 43.3

4th: 37.6

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The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Nice Day Watch until 8 PM tomorrow (Sun) night.  Simulated radar indicates an outbreak of bike riding around 5 pm, along with isolated games of catch and frisbee and locally heavy barbecue smoke.  God help us all.

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59F in Port Jeff village at the maritime festival. Way too cold for shorts and tee a few hits ago, but a nice redemption. Still, shore facing east is a cool breeze. Away from water and within blocked tree areas, it's awesome, tho not the darling yesterday was. Still, 70 seems impossible to get to.

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