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Rain/Wind/Isolated Thunder Event: April 19-20


Quincy

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We could even see some of the stronger winds get mixed down over NYC metro if the squall

line catches up with the LLJ around 3z this evening. The NAM has the squall line overlapping

the western edge of the LLJ as it is maxing out. That will probably be the time to watch for

the strongest wind gusts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I have noticed an increase in mid-level winds on the TPHL TDWR VAD wind profile.

 

There is also a good pocket of elevated instability on the 3z JFK forecast sounding  if the line remains intact and

lines up with the LLJ.

Lifted Index:             -0.14 C Risk: Thunderstorms probableLifted Index @300 mb:      3.55 CLifted Index @700 mb:     -1.14 CShowalter Index:          -0.28 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
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There is also a good pocket of elevated instability on the 3z JFK forecast sounding  if the line remains intact and

lines up with the LLJ.

Lifted Index:             -0.14 C Risk: Thunderstorms probableLifted Index @300 mb:      3.55 CLifted Index @700 mb:     -1.14 CShowalter Index:          -0.28 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable

JFK already had a wind gust to 43mph, earlier this afternoon. Currently gusting to 37mph. The 18z NAM Bukfit shows near 1000 J/kg MUCAPE for LGA and JFK at 2z tonight.

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60% chance of watch being issued:

 

sw95yp.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0612 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...NJ...SERN PA...DE      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 192312Z - 200045Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR   POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.      DISCUSSION...A N/S-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NY   INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC IS ADVANCING EWD AROUND 30 KT...AND FORECAST   TO EXIT UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCHES IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ONLY   MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE   STRENGTH OF THE ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COMBINED   WITH INTENSE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR   ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES INTO THE   EVENING HOURS. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A SPIN UP OR TWO MAY   OCCUR...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME   POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS   NOCTURNAL COOLING YIELDS DECREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD   MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A WW.      ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/19/2013         ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch now issued for New Jersey:

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-200300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0135.130420T0010Z-130420T0300Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BERGEN              BURLINGTON
CAMDEN               CAPE MAY            CUMBERLAND
EASTERN UNION        ESSEX               GLOUCESTER
HUDSON               HUNTERDON           MERCER
MIDDLESEX            MONMOUTH            MORRIS
OCEAN                PASSAIC             SALEM
SOMERSET             SUSSEX              WARREN
$$

 

ww0135_radar.gif
 

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