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April 17-18 Heavy Rain Event


A-L-E-K

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FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
844 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013  
 
ILC143-179-203-180600-  
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130418T0600Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
PEORIA IL-TAZEWELL IL-WOODFORD IL-  
844 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013  
 
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOODFORD...NORTHERN  
TAZEWELL AND SOUTHERN PEORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...  
 
AT 840 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS  
OCCURRING IN ROANOKE. CITIZENS WERE BEING EVACUATED IN PARTS OF THE  
TOWN. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN SURROUNDING  
AREAS IN THE WARNING.  

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Two successive extratropical storms with this much moisture hitting two weeks in a row is impressive.

 

Even on the outer periphery of the action ("only" a few inches of rain) in SE Michigan, it's been extremely interesting to watch it unfold. DTW has not recorded a 0.00 precip day since 4/6!

 

ETA: Even the crapvection is giving a nice light show here.

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man, this truly is going to be a complete flooding event overnight. Storms keep firing in northern MO and Southern IA. Lightning intensity is growing as well. With the warm front bound to start making its way north, there's really no end in sight.

Absolutely. Downstream looks impressive for an all night continued soaking

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man, this truly is going to be a complete flooding event overnight. Storms keep firing in northern MO and Southern IA. Lightning intensity is growing as well. With the warm front bound to start making its way north, there's really no end in sight. 

 

gonna be a mess....my yard has the feel of a heavy rain on top of a frozen ground right now....just puddles throughout...warm air is def making it's way north and the convection is on the increase....lightening strikes at about 2 per minute and one just gave us a power surge....it's only up to 49 at the house for the temp...so it's not a crazy surge of the boundary, but clearly warmer than it has been all day

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Des plaines river At riverside  expected to crest at a record now 10 ft

 

even higher then 1987

 

however we will have to wait and see if the training stays south of that location(and the heavy rainfall)

That's the problem for us down here in the brook....not only do we have to clear the current rainfall....but we will have to make room for the water makings it's way down south from up north that got hammered earlier today over the next few days

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record flooding also now expected on the Kankakee river in NE IN at Shelby

..FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO RECORD SEVERITY

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT SHELBY.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

* AT 745 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.1 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.

* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...INDIANA ROUTE 55 IS FLOODED. EXTENSIVE FLOODING OCCURS TO THE SUMAVA RESORTS AREA. WATER APPROACHES THE TOP OF LEVEES.

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Des plaines river At riverside  expected to crest at a record now 10 ft

 

even higher then 1987

 

however we will have to wait and see if the training stays south of that location(and the heavy rainfall)

'

That's pretty intense.

 

rvri2_hg.png

 

@ Gurnee is supposed to get quite high as well.

 

guni2_hg.png

 

Major flooding predicted on the Fox River in Kenosha County.

 

nmsw3_hg.png

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2.44" for the day now here.  Steady moderate rain.  If those storms to the south make it in here later tonight it could start to get pretty serious around here.  Up to 7" even for the month. 

 

Rock River now expected to crest at 18.7', which is only a half foot below record crest.  According to the chart on the NWS, the water would have to reach 20-21' to start impacting Erie.

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Key Contributing factors to the Historic Flooding of 2008:

 Heavy winter snow (from late 2007 through early 2008)

+ Significant flooding in April 2008 (resulting in high river levels)

Extremely moist soils (continuing through May)

Heavy June rains

=> Historic flooding

 

Although we did not have heavy winter snow this winter, this april has been extremely wet.  This does not bode well for area rivers in the near future.

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1.39" here so far this evening.  Can't wait for the "real stuff" to arrive.  Thank goodness I live in one of the highest points in the county.

 

I'll say it is a good thing considering the record they are forecasting for the Grand River. Pretty impressive stuff.

gdrm4_hg.png

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2.44" for the day now here.  Steady moderate rain.  If those storms to the south make it in here later tonight it could start to get pretty serious around here.  Up to 7" even for the month. 

 

Rock River now expected to crest at 18.7', which is only a half foot below record crest.  According to the chart on the NWS, the water would have to reach 20-21' to start impacting Erie.

 

A little extra convection and this station could top 19.0'. Intense

 

josi2_hg.png

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i dont think that is going to happen...heaviest rain south...

 

I guess will have to see what tomorrow brings, but yeah that could be the case. 

 

I pretty sure that 11.9' crest was in the summer of 04 - I believe.

 

No, it wasn't: 09/27/1986. 05/25/2004 made it to 11.76'.

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Yeah I'm wondering if they're going off of only what's already fallen, or what may additionally fall.  I'm guessing they project what may fall based off of HPC and combine it with what has already fallen. 

 

This is how the forecast crest is projected.

 

NOTE: River forecasts for this location take into account past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 24 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time.

 

 

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River drive in east moline/ moline on the lower parts has already been taken over by the mississippi river. I know since I saw it this evening. This is shaping up to be pretty serious here in the metro quad cities. I don't know if we'll hit a record crest but it might be close. A lot depends on how much falls tonight and tomorrow, if its more extreme totals I think record flooding comes into the discussion on all area rivers around here. Hope we don't get deluged next week

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As expected the heaviest rain producing thunderstorms continue to train from Quincy to Peoria to Kankakee.  North of there we're getting steady rains, but nothing too heavy.  These areas had heavy rain this morning though, so the steady moderate rains are more of an impact than what they normally would be. 

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