cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 As mentioned yesterday the convection evolution will make a big difference where the heaviest corridor sets up. We were in it earlier, but the deep convection has been shoved way southeast. Later tonight it should slowly lift back north though as the surface low lifts north with the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Fox River @ Algonquin already at Moderate Flooding levels.... yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Des Plaines River at Gurnee gauge heading almost straight up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Des Plaines River at Gurnee gauge heading almost straight up. Wow. Time for an updated forecast there me thinks. Rock River around here hasn't rose yet, but it takes a little longer for the bigger rivers. Heaviest rains fall south of the basin currently, but the basin got dumped on pretty good this morning. If the heaviest corridor ends up over northern IL tonight/tomorrow morning the Rock will flood very badly. The NE/SW orientation of the heavy rain band lines up perfectly with the angle of the river basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 classic LOT Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 1am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 top 5 crest now expected on the Rock river at MLI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 LOT update CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY IMPEDE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF ELEVATED RA/TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WHILE PERHAPS LIMITING SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS EVENING TO ELEVATED HAILERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA OF COURSE...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 LOT update CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY IMPEDE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF ELEVATED RA/TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WHILE PERHAPS LIMITING SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS EVENING TO ELEVATED HAILERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA OF COURSE...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. RATZER worst case scenario...svr threat was always marginal but heavy rain and flooding is going to be high impact for sure. nice to see you posting btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Not normally a pond out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I just drove from Grand Rapids to AA. Nice cloud to ground lightning strikes seen along the way. Ground is saturated along that entire route with a lot of ponding in fields. Grand River was already quite high too with the lower river walk area already flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 worst case scenario...svr threat was always marginal but heavy rain and flooding is going to be high impact for sure. nice to see you posting btw thanks Been very busy with work and the family..the MCS this morning wasn't modeled well...and is stalling the warm front...looking at the radar and model data..reminds me of heavy/extreme events that sometimes sets up in the Mid south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Nice, keep the pics coming. I love river flooding, what a beautiful process. Unfortunately people are often impacted, hope you guys stay as dry as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Fun fact that Skilling showed on air: 1" of rain falling over all of Cook County = 16.4 billion gallons! Weighs 137 billion pounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Fun fact that Skilling showed on air: 1" of rain falling over all of Cook County = 16.4 billion gallons! Weighs 137 billion pounds. I like this, pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 612 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-197-201-INC089- 181700- /O.NEW.KLOT.FA.W.0001.130417T2312Z-130418T1700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ KANE IL-KENDALL IL-LA SALLE IL-MCHENRY IL-OGLE IL-WILL IL- WINNEBAGO IL-GRUNDY IL-BOONE IL-DE KALB IL-DUPAGE IL-LEE IL-LAKE IL- COOK IL-LAKE IN- 612 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS... BOONE... COOK... DE KALB... DUPAGE... KANE... KENDALL... LA SALLE... LAKE... LEE... MCHENRY... NORTHERN GRUNDY... OGLE... WILL... WINNEBAGO... AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA... * UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY * AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THROUGH 6 PM ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO LOCALLY OVER THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. * SOME FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND WORSENING FLOODING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TONIGHT IF RAINFALL RATES INTENSIFY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Just broke the 2" mark here. Dewitt Iowa, just north of DVN has picked up 4" already today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Fun fact that Skilling showed on air: 1" of rain falling over all of Cook County = 16.4 billion gallons! Weighs 137 billion pounds. Heavy flow of sewage water going in to Lake Michigan from MKE to Chitcago. Good thing its not summer. Des Plaines River with all that untreated toilet water is going to look like a Chocolate Chip McCafe Frappe river. Instead of ice flows or icebergs heading down to the Illinois and Mississippi river its going to be poopbergs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Just broke the 2" mark here. Dewitt Iowa, just north of DVN has picked up 4" already today. Dewitt gauge heading up quick. Edit: Heavy flow of sewage water going in to Lake Michigan from MKE to Chitcago. Good thing its not summer. Des Plaines River with all that untreated toilet water is going to look like a Chocolate Chip McCafe Frappe river. Instead of ice flows or icebergs heading down to the Illinois and Mississippi river its going to be poopbergs. Yeah it's going to be gross water. The same fact for Milwaukee County: 1" of rain = 4,195,472,827 gallons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Dewitt gauge heading up quick. Went through there on Sunday, and even then it seemed pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Looks like the heaviest rains tonight may line up from Quincy to Peoria over towards Kankakee. Storms over central Missouri continuously developing and funneling towards that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 18, 2013 Author Share Posted April 18, 2013 Looks like the heaviest rains tonight may line up from Quincy to Peoria over towards Kankakee. Storms over central Missouri continuously developing and funneling towards that area. tough call, lots of the models have the warm front lifting north overnight but it seems like it will get held up with persistent convection across the area all night, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 That massive area of stratiform in eastern Iowa is heading further north. ...up this way and into WI more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 0.84" at RAC so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 2.21" here. Just steady moderate rain, nothing heavy anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 getting squishy in the brook....a top 10 crest looks to be a lock... (1) 24.04 ft on 09/14/2008(2) 23.75 ft on 07/18/1996(3) 22.55 ft on 02/22/1997(4) 22.11 ft on 10/14/2001(5) 21.42 ft on 01/13/2005(6) 20.94 ft on 01/24/1999(7) 20.61 ft on 05/08/1998(8) 20.32 ft on 08/28/2004(9) 20.16 ft on 04/21/2000(10) 19.39 ft on 05/09/2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Lol. Lot of the rain that falls in N IL and even SE WI flows the other away from the lake. Now MI on the other hand is almost entirely in the Great Lakes watershed. In Chicago though, they do release into the lake if they absolutely have to. Some of this stormwater will head for the deep tunnels I'm sure. Lastest RAP looks like it's coming back to reality regarding orientation of the heaviest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Looking like half inch run of the mill rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 1.39" here so far this evening. Can't wait for the "real stuff" to arrive. Thank goodness I live in one of the highest points in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 getting squishy in the brook....a top 10 crest looks to be a lock... (1) 24.04 ft on 09/14/2008 (2) 23.75 ft on 07/18/1996 (3) 22.55 ft on 02/22/1997 (4) 22.11 ft on 10/14/2001 (5) 21.42 ft on 01/13/2005 (6) 20.94 ft on 01/24/1999 (7) 20.61 ft on 05/08/1998 (8) 20.32 ft on 08/28/2004 (9) 20.16 ft on 04/21/2000 (10) 19.39 ft on 05/09/2003 per forecasts it will make a run at top 3.... additional rainfall may make it even higher on the list.... Forecast Data: |Date(UTC)| |Stage| |--Flow-| 04/18 06:00 19.6ft 0.777kcfs 04/18 12:00 20.8ft 1.14kcfs 04/18 18:00 21.7ft 1.45kcfs 04/19 00:00 22.4ft 1.72kcfs 04/19 06:00 22.7ft 1.85kcfs 04/19 12:00 22.6ft 1.8kcfs 04/19 18:00 22.3ft 1.68kcfs 04/20 00:00 22ft 1.56kcfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Lotsa flashes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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