A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 NAM went from 4"+ to 1" is a couple runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Alek what did your biggest snowstorm of the season end up being? Over/under in you beating that with rain totals? IDK 5-6" or so. I think that mark is safe...looks like heaviest rains will be well NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 It does look like today should be largely dry until at least this evening and possibly later overnight. LOT can probably trim back pops and heavy rain wording...especially east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 The gfs definetly doesn't have that connective complex located in western Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 It does look like today should be largely dry until at least this evening and possibly later overnight. LOT can probably trim back pops and heavy rain wording...especially east. You're gonna bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Way too much NAM QPF hugging in this thread. 2.67" at IND since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Off and running here. 0.15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Way too much NAM QPF hugging in this thread. 2.85" at IND since yesterday. Impressive number for IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 You're gonna bust hard. I think most of the area, especially well east of I-39, stays more or less dry through 0z with amounts under a quarter inch or so. Not calling bust and we'll get soaked later and especially tomorrow but i'm not seeing the heavy rain threat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Impressive number for IND. My math was off, it's actually 2.67". Still, an overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 My math was off, it's actually 2.67". Still, an overachiever. big time, i had no idea they saw 2"+ yesterday, talk about priming the pump if thursday decides to train out over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 big time, i had no idea they saw 2"+ yesterday, talk about priming the pump if thursday decides to train out over the region. I wasn't expecting 1"+ here yesterday, let alone 2"+ down there. Flood Advisories just issued for a good chunk of central Indiana. Local CoCoRaHS 36 hour totals... Lafayette 2.2 S: 1.39" West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 1.25" Lafayette 2.2 NE: 1.15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I was expecting 1"+ here yesterday, let alone 2"+ down there. Flood Advisories just issued for a good chunk of central Indiana. Local CoCoRaHS 36 hour totals... Lafayette 2.2 S: 1.39" West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 1.25" Lafayette 2.2 NE: 1.15" Driving home yesterday, alot of creeks were already running very high from the afternoon rain. I'm just above 2" total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Nice blob in Iowa looks to be making a beeline this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 There's starting to be more divergence in the placement of heavy rain (of course the models like to do this). The GFS ensembles have all shifted south and east, but the 06z RGEM, UKMET, and perhaps Euro (I don't know) are more in line with what the GFS and NAM had been showing for a few days, with more of an E Iowa/S Wisconsin/N Illinois/W Lower Michigan heavy rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Nice blob in Iowa looks to be making a beeline this waY Interesting... I was thinking we'd be dry until at least noon or one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 There's starting to be more divergence in the placement of heavy rain (of course the models like to do this). The GFS ensembles have all shifted south and east, but the 06z RGEM, UKMET, and perhaps Euro (I don't know) are more in line with what the GFS and NAM had been showing for a few days, with more of an E Iowa/S Wisconsin/N Illinois/W Lower Michigan heavy rain event. During the last sleet/rain event here this weekend, the GFS was not wet enough...at least for my area... I think it had been spitting out around half inch for a few days and we ended up with like 1.5 inches! 6z spits out about 3/4 inch of precip ... so definite drying trend...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I dont buy the GFS on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 You're gonna bust hard. LOT trimmed pops and removed heavy rain wording for today just like I thought they would. On the plus side, severe threat looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 LOT trimmed pops and removed heavy rain wording for today just like I thought they would. On the plus side, severe threat looking up. For who? My P&C has heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 For who? My P&C has heavy rain. yeah it's back in mine to, must have just been something weird when updating the grids or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 The point forecast for me is for 2.5-5.0 inches over the next 48 hours. This is pretty serious considering we're already over 5" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I dont buy the GFS on this one The NAM is verifying much better than the GFS this morning. The GFS has been trending toward a blowup of convection across Missouri that robs Iowa of deep moisture, but that is obviously total garbage given the current radar. Iowa is covered by heavy rain and storms while Missouri is bone dry. DVN is thinking storms could train through tonight from Ottumwa to Iowa City to Dubuque with 4-5 inches of rain possible. The key may be how much of an eastward push this big complex gets this afternoon. We are off to a quick start, now approaching a half inch here in CR. We've had a few loud booms, but most of the stronger convection has remained south along the edge of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 IA/IL/WI border area around DBQ should post a big number over the next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 A couple micro cells with decent boomers downtown and then we head into a lull for a tbd amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 No model really had anywhere near what is going on in Iowa right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 pwats now exceeding an inch from galena to gary and points southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Nice steady rain the last half hour... such a gorgeous day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Impressive totals around Iowa City already with clusterfuk complex raging... so far the NAM has been doing well. Action got a little further east into LOT than I expected but for the most part, most of the area will see only light totals until at least this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 RAP is probably more accurate in the placement of heavy rain today. @ Alek - Looks like I will be closer to the heavy rain axis for awhile today. Only about 0.05" today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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