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April 17-18 Heavy Rain Event


A-L-E-K

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Wabash River at the Lafayette gauge at 24.97 feet at 8:30 this morning, currently the 13th highest level on record.

post-68-0-07564400-1366464915.png

Flooding impacts

25 Major flooding in progress in the Lafayette area. Residents of several homes evacuated during the floods of July 2003 and January 2005. Some local roads flooded by several feet. Tapawingo Park almost commpletely flooded. Local business in the Levee Plaza area and residents of Wabash Landing should monitor river closely if river continues to rise steadily at this level. The last time the river was at a higher level was February 1959...before the upstream flood control reservoirs were built.

Historical Crests for Wabash River at Lafayette

(1) 32.90 ft on 03/26/1913

(2) 31.10 ft on 02/17/1883

(3) 29.50 ft on 08/03/1875

(4) 28.47 ft on 05/19/1943

(5) 28.00 ft on 06/11/1858

(6) 28.00 ft on 08/05/1878

(7) 26.28 ft on 06/14/1958

(8) 25.50 ft on 02/27/1936

(9) 25.35 ft on 01/06/1950

(10) 25.30 ft on 02/11/1959

(11) 25.05 ft on 07/10/2003

(12) 25.03 ft on 01/14/2005

(13) 24.32 ft on 02/25/1985

(14) 24.31 ft on 02/07/2008

(15) 24.07 ft on 01/16/1930

Update:

* AT 10:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.3 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.

* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.

* AT 25.0 FEET...IN APRIL 2013...75 TO 100 HOMES AFFECTED NEAR THE RIVER AND 4 BULLDINGS IN THE WILLIAMSBURG APARTMENT COMPLEX WITH FLOODING OF 65 CARS. SR 43 CLOSED AT ROBINSON STREET IN WEST LAFAYETTE. ALL APPROACHES TO SR 443 CLOSED.

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Did you guys hear about Forest View on the southwest side? Des Plaines river flooded over a levee and flooded most of the small town of 700 people. My family and I grew up not far from there and this never happened even in 86/87.

http://wgntv.com/2013/04/19/floodwater-spills-over-levee-in-forest-view/

 

Yeah I heard about that!

 

1200 from the town of Marseilles are being ordered to evacuate.

 

http://wgntv.com/2013/04/20/flooding-forces-1000-to-evacuate-marseilles/

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Us Corp of Engineers is predicting a crest of 29 on Monday while the NWS says 30 on Tuesday,,,

 

 

 

 

EAST PEORIA – The Illinois River is predicted to crest at a record high very early Tuesday, April 23. The City of East Peoria is recommending residents be proactive and plan ahead in the event of an emergency.

City officials say if severe flooding does occur, residents in the Richland Farms area and those along the river along Main Street and westward will need to evacuate. If this should occur, residents should have a plan for themselves and their pets, including having basic supplies ready and provisions for their animals. Voluntary evacuation, if possible, is encouraged.

Officials say no one is allowed on the levee for any reason, and boaters are advised to stay off the river.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/51605231#.UXLQ9LXqnro

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lol, yeah

 

LAF's "finest" weatherman is trying to hint at something, I think...

 

This would be the highest crest since June 14, 1958.  It would tie the February 1936 flood.  What is so interesting is that we had so much rainfall & melting snow in late winter-spring 1936 & it ended up being the hottest & driest summer on record (at least back to 1868).  However, 1958 was a wet summer with frequent showers & storms.

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Needless to say that will only exacerbate and prolong the flooding of area rivers. Hopefully this system is a quick mover.

Will be interesting to see how much it slows the drops. Will be another 24-36 hours or so before those precip amounts are factored into the river forecasts. Convective elements always add some uncertainty but overall the setup doesn't seem as favorable for those obscene amounts that happened last time.

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Video from today.

 

 

Nice video Frostfern. I've been along that stretch of waterfront before too. Amazing to see the river that high and up into the buildings. 

Be careful of those Geese! I've been chased and hissed by them before. lol

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Model bias actually tends to be dry at higher QPF amounts (>.75" per 6 hours). In this extreme of an event, they're usually very dry compared to reality.

 

Tuesday is making me worry as it is coming in right on the heels of a crest, or in the case of the STL region, 1-2 days before the crest of the last surge. Long range pattern stays quite active and (mostly) below normal temps, keeping uptake by evaporation and evapo-transpiration rather low, so soils will stay waterlogged.

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Model bias actually tends to be dry at higher QPF amounts (>.75" per 6 hours). In this extreme of an event, they're usually very dry compared to reality.

Tuesday is making me worry as it is coming in right on the heels of a crest, or in the case of the STL region, 1-2 days before the crest of the last surge. Long range pattern stays quite active and (mostly) below normal temps, keeping uptake by evaporation and evapo-transpiration rather low, so soils will stay waterlogged.

Yeah and at this range the models are already painting 1-2" amounts on areas that do not need the rain. This is really going to compound the issue over a large real estate some of which, like the photo I posted above are experiencing record crests. The photo above is of the Spoon River which crested 9.7' above flood stage in London Mills, IL.
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Awesome vid, thanks for filming. Hopefully those sandbags won't be needed. Hate those bloody geese in the spring.

 

I filled sandbags for about 30 minutes and stopped.  There were actually way too many volunteers and it was overcrowded with people standing around doing nothing.  It was overkill by yesterday.  They had built walls for a crest 5 feet higher when the river was only going to rise another two feet or so.

 

Those geese do have an attitude. lol.  I've encountered wild turkeys in my area that are even more aggressive and will attack rather than run away when approached.

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At least there are no reds...but still..... :yikes:

 

post-5865-0-79304100-1366579335_thumb.gi

 

via LOT....

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
SUN APR 21 2013

.HYDROLOGY...

257 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTED RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROLONG
FALLING RIVER LEVELS...POSSIBLY CAUSING NEW RISES AS WELL AS
CAUSING SOME RIVERS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE TO
RISE BACK TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SPECIFICS IS LOW DUE TO MANY FACTORS.

FIRST...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL AND WHILE THESE AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...THE GFS AND THE
NAM ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE INCH OR MORE. SECOND...
WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE RAIN...ITS POSSIBLE THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND POSSIBLY AFFECT ONLY CERTAIN
RIVER BASINS. THIRD...THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF RAIN. IF THE
RAIN FALLS IN A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS AND BECOMES HEAVY...MUCH OF
IT WILL RUNOFF INTO CREEKS/STREAMS WHICH HAVE LITTLE/NO CAPACITY.
THUS FLOODING OF AREAS WHERE WATER HAS ALREADY RECEDED IS
POSSIBLE. FOURTH...EVEN IF THE RAIN IS MORE MODERATE OR AMOUNTS
ARE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED. SO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...EVEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONGER TIME
PERIOD...WILL LIKELY STILL CAUSE NEW RISES OR AT LEAST DELAY
FALLING RIVERS.

OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING SINCE THE
RUNOFF WOULD HAVE NO WHERE TO GO...EXCEPT LOW LYING AREAS THAT
MAY STILL HAVE FLOODING ISSUES. CMS

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