A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 I spun this off to keep the severe thread clean and because it's worthy of being seperated from general April banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 NAM is juicy again (no surprise) going with over 4" from Milwaukee to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2013 Author Share Posted April 16, 2013 Pretty much a perfect orientation over the Fox, Des Plaines and Rock River basins. On the plus side, this is the type of mega event that might help with lake recovery levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2013 Author Share Posted April 16, 2013 MKE pulled the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 DVN, LOT, ILX, etc should follow soon, one would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 DVN, LOT, ILX, etc should follow soon, one would think. GRR/APX/DTX as well I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 LSE goes as well. Not as much rain here but still frost in the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Hydrologic outlook for the LOT cwa. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-141-197-201-INC007-073-089-111-127-162230-HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL517 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2013 /617 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013/...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINSTOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTYREMAINS AS TO THE PRECISE PATH THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILLTAKE...WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPLICATION ON WHAT PARTS OF THEAREA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. CONFIDENCE HASSTEADILY INCREASED IN A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THISTIMEFRAME. THE CURRENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OFRAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...IT COULDPROLONG THE CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS AND SEND ADDITIONAL AREARIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ARE NEAR BANKFULL INTO FLOOD. A FEW OF THESTRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE LOCALAREA...LEADING TO ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES.THIS COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS. FLASH FLOODINGIS ALSO A CONCERN IN ADDITION TO THE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODPOTENTIAL.$$BEACHLER NAM backed off on the 5-6" amounts. Don't believe this map Skilling showed. More so for entertainment purposes. Otherwise Cyclone better get a boat built today or rent one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2013 Author Share Posted April 16, 2013 crazy high for an ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 GRR, APX, GRB all pulled the trigger in the last hour. MPX did for areas closer to ARX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 GRR, APX, GRB all pulled the trigger in the last hour. MPX did for areas closer to ARX. add DVN and ILX for the flash flood list....i would imagine LOT goes next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 some flash flood guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 We're still under a flood warning from last weeks rains and now we got all this more coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 1.10" at LAF today. I guess the thread is for tomorrow and Thursday, but this was somewhat unexpected here today...and will add to the already swollen Wabash River. And LAF/and western Indiana probably has the best chance in the state of racking up some bigger totals when all is said and done. So, I'm posting here. Rainfall amounts at LAF this week... Monday: 0.07" Tuesday: 1.10" No mention of a Flood Watch by IND, but the IWX AFD says they'll monitor the situation and may issue one if need be. EDIT: IND getting it good today as well, even more than LAF. 1.61" on the day through 5:00pm. Still raining there, with more lined up to the west back in IL. Flood Advisory up for Marion and the surrounding counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 add DVN and ILX for the flash flood list....i would imagine LOT goes next Probably part of STL will as well. There goes EAX and SGF. NAM pushed the 3" line well into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 LOT just pulled the trigger. 431 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013 /531 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013/...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB... DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE... KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY... OGLE...WILL AND WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND PORTER.* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE REPEATED TRAINING OF STORMS MAY OCCUR.* AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR AT FLOOD STAGE WILL LIKELY RISE TO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING URBAN AREAS. ALSO...RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED THE CAPACITY OF STORM DRAINS...DRAINAGE PONDS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES ALONG ROADWAYS...LEADING TO FLOODING IN SUBURBAN AREAS AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Hydrologic outlook for the LOT cwa. NAM backed off on the 5-6" amounts. Don't believe this map Skilling showed. More so for entertainment purposes. Otherwise Cyclone better get a boat built today or rent one! Could drop skillings map in a winter thread and I wouldnt bat an eye, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Lol^ NAM hires is downright scary around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 0z nam backing off max amounts and about 1/2 of what it was for an N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 0z nam backing off max amounts and about 1/2 of what it was for an N IL That's encouraging. RPM still cranking out the high amounts - although not as bad as the noon run. Anyone have some EURO numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 That's encouraging. RPM still cranking out the high amounts - all thought not as bad as the noon run. 0417_18rain.png Anyone have some EURO numbers? I think that's a little further north and west with the main axis than the last run. Would mean tons of problems in NW Illinois and S Wisconsin in particular, but NE Illinois as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I think that's a little further north and west with the main axis than the last run. Would mean tons of problems in NW Illinois and S Wisconsin in particular, but NE Illinois as well. Rock River watershed would be highly impacted. Already major flooding southeast of Madison. Rock River then runs down by Cyclone... New NAM hires: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Rock River watershed would be highly impacted. Already major flooding southeast of Madison. Rock River then runs down by Cyclone... New NAM hires: That's a lot of rain, but at least it aint showing the 5-6" rains down here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 The NAM and GFS are very different with QPF placement over the next two days. The NAM focuses the precip from eastern Iowa through Wisconsin, while the GFS starts the heavy stuff to the south and east and keeps it there. Also, the GFS has heavy precip(some snow) from Nebraska through Minnesota while the NAM has much less there. I wonder if this is just the NAM being garbage or perhaps the GFS is showing convective feedback. I know models can struggle with convective situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 The NAM and GFS are very different with QPF placement over the next two days. The NAM focuses the precip from eastern Iowa through Wisconsin, while the GFS starts the heavy stuff to the south and east and keeps it there. Also, the GFS has heavy precip(some snow) from Nebraska through Minnesota while the NAM has much less there. I wonder if this is just the NAM being garbage or perhaps the GFS is showing convective feedback. I know models can struggle with convective situations. Yeah the way I figure it the convection will throw all kinds of curve balls at the models so the placement of the heaviest precip will probably depend on how the convective complexes evolve. There will definitely be a zone of very heavy rainfall, but where that sets up will be highly dependent on what the convection does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 The NAM and GFS are very different with QPF placement over the next two days. The NAM focuses the precip from eastern Iowa through Wisconsin, while the GFS starts the heavy stuff to the south and east and keeps it there. Also, the GFS has heavy precip(some snow) from Nebraska through Minnesota while the NAM has much less there. I wonder if this is just the NAM being garbage or perhaps the GFS is showing convective feedback. I know models can struggle with convective situations. It will come down to warm front placement and whether or not areas see training convection. Probably a compromise between the GFS and NAM regarding placement is a good guessimate to go by for now. I agree with what Cyclone just typed above^ Edit: MKX did a really nice write up on the flooding potential. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=94025&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yeah the way I figure it the convection will throw all kinds of curve balls at the models so the placement of the heaviest precip will probably depend on how the convective complexes evolve. There will definitely be a zone of very heavy rainfall, but where that sets up will be highly dependent on what the convection does. Not only placement but amounts. I would not be surprised to see some narrow bands of 5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Not only placement but amounts. I would not be surprised to see some narrow bands of 5"+ Yeah, 5"+ seems like a lock for wherever the corridor ends up lining up. The new RGEM looks insane with amounts for this area. Haven't seen the amounts yet, but just by looping the precip it looks very heavy for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Alek what did your biggest snowstorm of the season end up being? Over/under in you beating that with rain totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 IN could also end up seeing some impressive multi-day totals: RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN0131 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.08 INCHES WAS SET AT INDIANAPOLISYESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.53 SET IN 1930. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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