April 15-19th Severe Weather

[Chargers09]

Lolz

[chances14]

up to 72 degrees here. been under hazy sunshine for most of the morning

[harrisale]

Environment Canada has posted a small 3 county severe thunderstorm watch for extreme Southwestern Ontario.

 

Severe thunderstorm watches just expanded across SW ON including both of us Should be a nice afternoon, debating a drive down south west. 4C increase in temp in the last hour.

096 
WWCN11 CWTO 181611
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12:11 PM EDT THURSDAY 18 APRIL 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= CALEDON
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
      WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
      SARNIA - LAMBTON.

      RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

      SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER
      MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
      SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
      THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
      THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
      THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY
      RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
      BULLETINS.

[Stebo]

Screaming southerlies

Currently in Napolean OH, winds are gusting easily over 45 here. The Malibu was dancing all the way over US 24 with the crosswinds.

[hm8]

Line is building north a bit as the southern part of it moves into semi... Where there is st least marginally more instability. Downdraft cape values are solid too. Should be a solid storm even if it won't be severe

[Chargers09]

I feel like this line wont be the main show, though. Correct me if Im wrong. 

[on_wx]

Environment Canada has expanded the severe thunderstorm watch to include a large portion of Southern Ontario from Lake St. Clair to Lake Simcoe.

 

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 12:11 PM EDT THURSDAY 18 APRIL 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:

=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= CALEDON
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND

      WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT

      SARNIA - LAMBTON.

      RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

      SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER

      MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
      SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

      THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
      THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
      THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY
      RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
      BULLETINS.

[Bryan Wood]

Yeah...you have to wonder what severe chances look like the rest of the day. The line seems to be weakening and that is quite a bit of stratiform rain behind the line. I personally think the severe threat remains minimal for the entirety of today and tonight.

CAPE is increasing ahead of the line, CAP is weakening. Mesolow moving NE should help back the winds some and could increase the tornado threat. The day is young. It won't be gangbusters....but not minimal.

[Central Illinois]

This line was not impressive when it came through here just a typical thunderstorm. I think I had maybe 2 or 3 rumbles of thunder and that was it.

[hm8]

I feel like this line wont be the main show, though. Correct me if Im wrong. 

Who knows. Watch does go till 6PM. Not out of the cards we could get something later but if I was a betting man I'd say it won't be anything too noteworthy.

[mjwise]

Line is building north a bit as the southern part of it moves into semi... Where there is st least marginally more instability. Downdraft cape values are solid too. Should be a solid storm even if it won't be severe

 

SBCAPE is up to 1000J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Line should pick up a little more as it continues to push east over us.

[Chargers09]

Who knows. Watch does go till 6PM. Not out of the cards we could get something later but if I was a betting man I'd say it won't be anything too noteworthy.

RAP keeps ample instability and parameters around till 4z. Who knows. 

[Harry Perry]

Tornado watches canceled in SWMI.

Meteorologists updated saying the severe weather threat lays south, far SE lower Michigan, SE IN, West Ohio. Temperatures are expected to slowly start falling.

The main show was the pre-frontal squall line that "affected" us earlier. Lol hey, atleast I got 30 mph winds and sprinkles!!

[Harry Perry]

GRR isn't necessarily discounting the chance of an isolated storm, but it's not likely.

[*IndyMeso*]

Major telecommunications outages at the Paducah Office. All weather radios, telephones, and radar displays are down. All warnings are being transmitted out of the office and weather radios may not activate in Southern IL and Southwest IN. Yikes

[Indystorm]

I had a stronger t storm here in Elkhart last evening than the one with the squall line.  I am honestly baffled by the issuance of the PDS tornado watch.  I expected a tor watch.  But the look of the radar at the time the watch was issued was not conducive to such a call and clearly SPC must have been expecting svr parameters to ramp upward east of the weakening line in a big way to make such a bold prediction.   Maybe things will happen to the south where things might be more favorable. than here up north.

[hm8]

Props to whoever was working on the dtx radar... Back up already

[Natester]

 

Low is essentially on top of me.  Was this showed in the models?

[nwohweather]

Currently in Napolean OH, winds are gusting easily over 45 here. The Malibu was dancing all the way over US 24 with the crosswinds.

Should I come over and say hi lol. I'm in Maumee now waiting

[LouWX]

Mixing down of dewpoints is now occurring in the warm sector where 850-925 drying is advecting north and mixing down. May really only be a narrow zone to either side of the Wabash River where severe is most likely. This isn't looking overly exciting at this juncture east of US-231 in KY/IN at this point

[hm8]

Severe parameters on the decline across MI now... Punt.

[Jonger]

Incoming

[Indystorm]

And storms are intensifying along I-69 near Fort Wayne now.  Ohio looks to be much more under the gun.

[Chargers09]

Severe parameters on the decline across MI now... Punt.

Isnt that based on the RAP, though? The RAP doesnt have the actual air temps observed. I dont see any low 80s in washtenaw county. Not buying it. 

[NJwinter23]

I mean, correct me if im off my rocker or missing something, but this should not have been a PDS tornado watch.

[Indystorm]

 

Low is essentially on top of me.  Was this showed in the models?

Yes, Gil Sebenste of NIU yesterday posted that the low was going to move farther west than originally progged.

[B-Rent]

I mean, correct me if im off my rocker or missing something, but this should not have been a PDS tornado watch.

 

Doesn't seem to be verifying at all. Still a couple hours left, but doesn't seem like the params are there.

[Bryan Wood]

And storms are intensifying along I-69 near Fort Wayne now.  Ohio looks to be much more under the gun.

 

Could be a nasty flash flood threat from Marion to Ft. Wayne if this continues to slow.

[LizardMafia]

Doesn't seem to be verifying at all. Still a couple hours left, but doesn't seem like the params are there.

Looks like the line isn't moving any further east at the moment.  Might see some clearing once the stuff just south of Terre Haute moves NE?? 

[Hoosier]

Don't post maps from SV.