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April 15-19th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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Environment Canada has posted a small 3 county severe thunderstorm watch for extreme Southwestern Ontario.

 

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:45 AM EDT THURSDAY 18 APRIL 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON.

      RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

      SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER
      MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
      ONTARIO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THESE STORMS
      COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

      THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
      THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY
      RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
      BULLETINS.
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Exactly. I dont understand calling it overkill when there's very strong shear, hodo's look great, and we've begun to destabilize quite nicely. 

 

ARB is now 72/63. That's up from 47/45 4 hours ago. YIP is at 76/62. Getting sticky out there, and I didn't bring a change of underwear to work...

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Yeah...you have to wonder what severe chances look like the rest of the day. The line seems to be weakening and that is quite a bit of stratiform rain behind the line. I personally think the severe threat remains minimal for the entirety of today and tonight.

I agree. Looks like areas from Fort Wayne, IN to Detroit points south have the best shot at severe weather this afternoon looking at the latest HRRR.

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Chad-nado? :lol:

Run of the mill in the LAF. Now we go stratiform rain part of the event.

Some guidance suggesting some clearing could push northward into eastern Illinois later today. Hopefully we can get things re-destabilized, otherwise we're done.

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I agree. Looks like areas from Fort Wayne, IN to Detroit points south have the best shot at severe weather this afternoon looking at the latest HRRR.

 

The SPC's forecast tools have the supercell composite parameter ratcheting up quite a bit to 10+ in the next 4 hours or so over that area.

 

scp.jpg

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I think it's pretty much a lost cause on the north end of things.

The SPC would have seen this coming when they issued the tornado watch. The line is falling apart. The precip behind it is taking an NNE jog. I really would wait to throw in your towel. How many events have happened this way for us in MI that we give up on too soon and then get smacked with storms later. It's 12 pm, dude. The watch is till 5. Be patient. 

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I've been watching weather and tracking it for 15 years... Detroit and Fort Wayne are much warmer and under sunny skies. Thus more instability.

The SPC thought the storms that were to affect us currently would quickly turn severe. Some have, most haven't. They didn't mention ANYTHING about a threat later in the day or how morning convection would dissipate to set the stage later in the day.

Everyone's entitled to their opinion, and mine is areas south of Detroit to Fort Wayne stand the best chance of severe weather. When the SPC updates at 12:30 I'm almost willing to bet money on an adjustment to the current forecast.

I see the rain falling apart and moving NNE but I also see 2000sq miles of thick debris clouds too.

Lol butterfly effect.

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Some guidance suggesting some clearing could push northward into eastern Illinois later today. Hopefully we can get things re-destabilized, otherwise we're done.

I guess the shield of rain back in IL is taking on a more NNE movement. Eastern IL looks dry now, but I'm not sure if they'll clear out in time for us. I guess we'll see.

EDIT: or maybe not to E IL being dry right now. Never mind me.

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