blue60007 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 lol, true. Welp, on to tomorrow night for the LAF. Yeah, was disappointed to see them lose steam as they moved into the more stable air. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Man... That is ALOT of rain over the Midwest heading this way. How in the world are we going to get surface based instability tomorrow.....? I see lower to mid 60's under cloudy skies all day for some reason. I'll be relieved to the see the updated SPC outlook with SWMI still included. I think it may shrink south some below the IN border. That is just a lot of rain and debris clouds, but I guess a lot can happen in 12-16 hours right? How did the hi-res models do on today's convection? (Been busy all day never got to check) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Well, there's no way I'll have time to drive all the way down into central Indiana tomorrow. Is the stupid ass convection blob over northern Missouri supposed to stay stationary all tonight and all day tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Man... That is ALOT of rain over the Midwest heading this way. How in the world are we going to get surface based instability tomorrow.....? I see lower to mid 60's under cloudy skies all day for some reason. I'll be relieved to the see the updated SPC outlook with SWMI still included. I think it may shrink south some below the IN border. That is just a lot of rain and debris clouds, but I guess a lot can happen in 12-16 hours right? How did the hi-res models do on today's convection? (Been busy all day never got to check) How is it possible to get real supercells into SWMI in April? It seems like instability is always eaten off by previous day convection leaving half-eaten leftovers. Somehow it used to happen in the 70s and 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Well, there's no way I'll have time to drive all the way down into central Indiana tomorrow. Is the stupid ass convection blob over northern Missouri supposed to stay stationary all tonight and all day tomorrow? How is it possible to get real supercells into SWMI in April? It seems like instability is always eaten off by previous day convection leaving half-eaten leftovers. Somehow it used to happen in the 70s and 80s. It's definitely moving NE, but it should overshoot our area and go North along the warm front. As the storm deepens, the warm front will literally surge northward and the rain should follow... So there is SOME light for us at the end of the tunnel. I'd say a situation like tomorrow, but with definitive instability we would get ATLEAST some supercellular storms ahead of the QLCS. Time will tell. Keep an eye on the latest HRRR and WRF 4KM. Both seemed to handle some of today's convection pretty well, more so the WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 It's way too early to be worried about crapvection. Besides, the WF will surge north as the LP deepens. Not to worry, MI crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 The RAP was balls today so a big fwiw, but it does show clearning taking place in time for ample instability to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 00z NAM has some ground scraping LCLs in parts of the region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 00z NAM has some ground scraping LCLs in parts of the region tomorrow. That doesn't do much when the CAPE is 50 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 00z NAM has some ground scraping LCLs in parts of the region tomorrow. That's always exciting. Tomorrow definitely has good potential. Imagine if it was sunny longer than expected, and temps made it to 80... Imagine the chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 That doesn't do much when the CAPE is 50 J/kg. CAPE is more like 500-1000 J/kg in the areas I'm looking at (NE IL/W IN) Overall I'd say the directional shear is lacking just a bit for my taste...in terms of getting a big tornado outbreak...but I would expect some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I'm hoping and expecting models are underdoing instability a bit. Temps shown in the low 70s over southern and eastern IL seem a bit low to me considering how warm the warm sector got today. Hell, even now temps over that area are still in the mid 70s. Granted there was more sun today for temps to get that warm, but any amount of sun tomorrow will quickly vault temps above 75 I would think. Really don't think southern/far eastern IL will have complete cloud cover tomorrow afternoon. Should see at least partial sunshine. This combined with established deep moisture should push cape values over 1000j/kg IMO. With the incoming strong vort and strong shear profiles I think there's a decent chance for some tornadoes. Like I said earlier we're gonna shoot for the intersection of the outflow/differential heating boundary and the incoming cold front/dry line. Target starting point will be Litchfield IL, but will probably adjust depending on how the boundaries/fronts evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 CAPE is more like 500-1000 J/kg in the areas I'm looking at (NE IL/W IN) Overall I'd say the directional shear is lacking just a bit for my taste...in terms of getting a big tornado outbreak...but I would expect some. I am looking at that area too. I was sort of making a joke. My point is that the CAPE looks skinny and the profile looks quite wet. I expect a squall line will be in that area in Indiana. The severe weather with that squall line could be wind gusts to 80mph and short-lived tornadoes. If it doesn't destabilize much, then maybe it will be a "cool" squall line, with a few wind gust reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 It's way too early to be worried about crapvection. Besides, the WF will surge north as the LP deepens. Not to worry, MI crew. As long as all tonight's crapvection doesn't change the track of the low itself. Guess I just have to wait. The 850 mb 10 degree dewpoint isotherm is still south of where it was six hours ago and it's being a b**ch to budge north. Right now it feels like it's getting colder out rather than warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 As long as all tonight's crapvection doesn't change the track of the low itself. Guess I just have to wait. WF is lifting Northward as we speak, you can see the whole band of convection is lifting NE as the individual showers/storms move E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 As long as all tonight's crapvection doesn't change the track of the low itself. Guess I just have to wait. The 850 mb 10 degree dewpoint isotherm is still south of where it was six hours ago and it's being a b**ch to budge north. Right now it feels like it's getting colder out rather than warmer. Warm air is on the way frostfern! NAM hires says mid 70s for your area. Lots of warm air fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Warm air is on the way frostfern! NAM hires says mid 70s for your area. Lots of warm air fuel. Probably a bit overdone, low 70s though looks pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 WF is lifting Northward as we speak, you can see the whole band of convection is lifting NE as the individual showers/storms move E. I see it surging north over lower MI now but upstream in Illinois it just seems to be training. Over Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa the convection is building back west behind the surface front. Maybe that's the incipient strengthening low. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 The NAM showed 70s to GRR last week when the 70 degree isotherm never made it past the southern row of counties and I was stuck in the low 40s all day. Well, I should at least have time to drive to Battle Creek or so if there's anything good that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Surprised nobody has posted the giant Mod risk area for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Moderate reaches almost up to Ann Arbor and parts of Livingston county. I could see it going even further to the east if we can keep the clouds and crapvection away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Posted by LOT awhile ago regarding Mod risk later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 The cell west of Crawfordsville that will eventually head up towards southeastern LAF is the one I'd be watching. Starting to get sort of a kidney bean shape to it. We were on this for a while. Sat in Danville, IL waiting for the cell coming NE out of Effingham to get into an area with better roads, but it really fizzled by the time it hit I-74. Then all of a sudden that guy near Crawfordsville looked pretty good. We only had about 20 minutes of viewing before we lost daylight, but it had some really impressive scud/lowering, and a distinct wall cloud for at least a few minutes. Countless CG strikes too. Have my eyes on that one. Of course, me being on the southeast side of LAF... Also cells that went through N IL merging with ones moving/and developing north through central IN. Kinda cool radar image. Warning cancelled/expired for Tippecanoe county. Still should be a rather quality thunderstorm... Was at least a lot of rain, I hope? Must've been. I almost sunk my car on US-41 a few miles north of I-74 when I hit some pretty deep ponding at the bottom of a hill. And even after that I had to deal with several wash-overs all the way up 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 DTX IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL...SEVERE WEATHER IS A MAJORCONCERN TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHTHE HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES TORISE TO 1.5 TO 2 J/G DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE VALUESREMAINING NEAR 1 J/G INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH WINDS ARE A REALTHREAT FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS WINDS MEET OR EXCEED 60KNOTS AS LOW AS 3500 FEET. HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITHSURFACE TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 250 TO 300 WITH SHEAR VALUES OF20 TO 25 M/S. THE ONE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER THAT IS NOT TOOIMPRESSIVE IS THE FREEZING LEVEL...WHICH IS 11-12K FEET ALONG WITHTHE LONG SKINNY CAPE WHICH ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL. ITAPPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH IT WILL NOTTAKE MUCH TO BRING TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFFTHE DECK. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THEHODOGRAPH AND HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THEATMOSPHERE AS WINDS TURN FROM SOUTH AT 25 KNOTS TO SOUTHWEST AT 60KNOTS AT 3500 FT. THE MAIN FACTOR AGAINST TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS THELACK OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN CWA IS MOST ATRISK...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AND SOMEAFTERNOON SUNSHINE CAN GENERATE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND ENHANCE EHIVALUES WHICH GET TO AROUND 2 JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL...SEVERE WEATHER IS A MAJORCONCERN TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHTHE HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES TORISE TO 1.5 TO 2 J/G DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE VALUESREMAINING NEAR 1 J/G INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH WINDS ARE A REALTHREAT FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS WINDS MEET OR EXCEED 60KNOTS AS LOW AS 3500 FEET. HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITHSURFACE TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 250 TO 300 WITH SHEAR VALUES OF20 TO 25 M/S. THE ONE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER THAT IS NOT TOOIMPRESSIVE IS THE FREEZING LEVEL...WHICH IS 11-12K FEET ALONG WITHTHE LONG SKINNY CAPE WHICH ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL. ITAPPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH IT WILL NOTTAKE MUCH TO BRING TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFFTHE DECK. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THEHODOGRAPH AND HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THEATMOSPHERE AS WINDS TURN FROM SOUTH AT 25 KNOTS TO SOUTHWEST AT 60KNOTS AT 3500 FT. THE MAIN FACTOR AGAINST TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS THELACK OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN CWA IS MOST ATRISK...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AND SOMEAFTERNOON SUNSHINE CAN GENERATE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND ENHANCE EHIVALUES WHICH GET TO AROUND 2 JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GRR CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTPOTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX LATER TODAY... PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON ANDEARLY EVENING. THIS AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE TONEAR MKE BY 00Z THIS EVE.IT DOES SEEM OVERALL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCHINSTABILITY AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS DID... NOW GENERALLY SHOWING SBCAPES MAY ONLY REACH 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTN. EVEN SO THIS ISCERTAINLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH/COMPENSATED FOR TO GET SEVERE WX WHENCOMBINED WITH ROBUST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG UPPERDYNAMICS AND VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH STRONG LLJ.LATEST SPC SREF (041721Z RUN) CRAVEN BROOKS SIG SVR PARAMETERSUGGESTS AREAS FROM IN/OH FURTHER SOUTH WOULD BE THE GREATESTCONCERN FOR SIG SVR LATER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND IT IS NOTED THATTHE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER OURAREA THIS AFTN AND THE SIG TOR FCST PARAMETER DOES REACH 1-2 BY THISAFTN/EARLY EVE. SO THE OVERALL SETUP STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FORPOTENTIAL SEVERE WX MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE.IN ADDITION THE SVR WX THREAT MAY COME SOONER RATHER THAN LATER WITH00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SIM Z GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINETO COME ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER NOON TODAY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS OURENTIRE FCST AREA FROM AROUND 1 PM THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THISNOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 4KM NSSL-WRF SIM Z GUIDANCE AS WELL.ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTHE LATE AFTN/EVE TOO... THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEGREATER SVR WX THREAT THIS EVE MAY BE MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA FROMIN/OH SOUTHWARD WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER INSTABILITY. OUR SVR WXTHREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 06Z TONIGHT (AND PROBABLY SEVERAL HOURSSOONER) WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING OUR EASTERN FCST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Today is a "thank god for smatphones with internet access in class" kinda day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 RAP sig tor up to 6-7 at 00z this evening for LAF area crew. May be some embedded supercells. Clear here in my area now. Southern and eastern areas seem to be most favored in moderate risk per IWX discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Dtx radar appears to be down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 High chance the risk area north of a rough line from UNI to LAF to TOL doesn't pan out tomorrow due to extensive convective debris. gangster call. Went from mod risk to barely in the slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...MUCH OF INDIANA...SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181225Z - 181400Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO INDIANA AND SWRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...WITH SVR THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY NECESSARY...ONE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER ERN IL AND WRN INDIANA. IN ADDITION...EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INDIANA...WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 60+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. ..GARNER/HART.. 04/18/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 New day one outlook. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0736 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013VALID 181300Z - 191200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVERPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI...MUCH OF IND...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERNIL...SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN...EASTERN AR...ANDNORTHERN MS......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX NORTHWARD ACROSSMUCH OF THE MS AND OH VALLEYS...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD INTO THE MSVALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE THATCURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IL INTO AR/EAST TX WILL SURGEEASTWARD AND RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMPOTENTIAL....MI/IL/IND...VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID MS VALLEYAND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGFORCING...LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME IMPRESSIVETHROUGH THE DAY WITH 850MB WINDS SPEEDS OVER 60 KNOTS AHEAD OF THESQUALL LINE. 12Z RAOBS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOW THERMODYNAMICPROFILES FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS REACHING THE SURFACE AFTERJUST A FEW HOURS OF HEATING. THE END RESULT MAY BECOME A SWATH OFRATHER WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND INTOSOUTHERN LOWER MI. ANY CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WILLALSO BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF300-500 M2/S2. THIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ASWELL....LA/AR/MS/TN/KY...THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER OVER THIS REGIONCOMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE HOURS OFDIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE STORMS BEFORE THEY TRAVERSE THE MOISTAXIS. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL ASSEVERAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL/DEEP LAYERVERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLETHROUGHOUT THIS REGION. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY THE MAINTHREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ ARE ALSO APOSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THESQUALL LINE...HART/GARNER.. 04/18/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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