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April 15-19th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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Round 2 inbound...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC007-037-103-141-201-171900-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0007.130417T1758Z-130417T1900Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1258 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  WESTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 200 PM CDT* AT 1255 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A  LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT MORRIS TO POLO TO 5  MILES WEST OF WALTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...  WALTON AROUND 105 PM CDT.  OREGON AROUND 110 PM CDT.  FRANKLIN GROVE AND BYRON AROUND 115 PM CDT.  STILLMAN VALLEY AND ASHTON AROUND 120 PM CDT.  ROCKFORD AIRPORT AROUND 130 PM CDT.  ROCHELLE AND HILLCREST AROUND 135 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WEST BROOKLYN...NEWMILLFORD...DAVIS JUNCTION...COMPTON...STEWARD...CRESTON AND LEE.OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...CASTLE ROCK STATE PARK...LEE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...LOWDEN STATEPARK...OGLE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...SAUK VALLEY COLLEGE...WHITE PINESSTATE PARK...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING.&&LAT...LON 4219 8953 4223 8876 4170 8885 4164 8964      4168 8964TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 259DEG 30KT 4213 8942 4197 8944          4170 8949HAIL...1.00INWIND...60MPH$$
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High chance the risk area north of a rough line from UNI to LAF to TOL doesn't pan out tomorrow due to extensive convective debris.

Honestly imo, much of the warm sector looks like it may be dealing with clouds. The line you drew seems kinda arbitrary.

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Honestly imo, much of the warm sector looks like it may be dealing with clouds. The line you drew seems kinda arbitrary.

 

Yes, plus NWS GRR disagrees with the idea of no sunshine in that area.

 

 

AS FOR THE SEVERS STORM THREAT... WITH THE FRONT TO OUR WEST AND

LOW LEVEL JET WEST OF AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IT MEANS

SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE

SOUTHEAST CWA WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND HAVE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.

A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENS TO 70 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON BY EARLY

FRIDAY MORNING. I WOULD EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE

STORMS WILL BE SO OF A LINE FROM AZO TO LANSING AFTER 3 PM.

 

 

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By convective debris I mean actual ongoing storms, not clouds.

 

NWS DTX addresses this as well

 

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY

BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE

REGION. WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPEDE THE PUSH

OF THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO SOME DEGREE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE

MID MISSISSIPPI...COUPLED WITH A RATHER NOTABLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE

EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS

MAIN STORM CENTER...SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW FOR THIS

FRONT TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY AND BRING MUCH

OF THE CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST

WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

 

 

With that low strengthening as much as it is currently modeled, that WF will lift very quickly Northward.

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DVN with an lo ****ing l worthy disco...

 

THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS MAIN DEEP
TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW
THEN BEGINS DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR MILWAUKEE BY EVENING.
TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN REGARDS TO
WHEN A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA
KEEPING THE MAIN OUTBREAK TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS
IS A BIT SLOWER AND THEREFORE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY GET IN ON
THE START OF THE OUTBREAK. HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
70S IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 

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DVN with an lo ****ing l worthy disco...

 

THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS MAIN DEEP

TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW

THEN BEGINS DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR MILWAUKEE BY EVENING.

TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN REGARDS TO

WHEN A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT

APPEARS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA

KEEPING THE MAIN OUTBREAK TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS

IS A BIT SLOWER AND THEREFORE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY GET IN ON

THE START OF THE OUTBREAK. HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER

70S IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 

 

office full of americanwx weenies.

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Cell in Southern IN pouring rocks:

 

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
535 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013


0534 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 39.20N 86.24W
04/17/2013 M2.00 INCH BROWN IN NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL STONES RANGING IN SIZE FROM ONE INCH TO TWO
INCHES.

 

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
546 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013


0545 PM HAIL 6 S SPEARSVILLE 39.24N 86.20W
04/17/2013 M1.75 INCH BROWN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

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NWS DTX addresses this as well

 

 

With that low strengthening as much as it is currently modeled, that WF will lift very quickly Northward.

 

It looks like tomorrow will a typical severe day in Northern IN and Southern MI. Start out with storms, then clouds hanging around until afternoon. I start getting phone calls and texts calling bust. Too cloudy and not very warm. Suddenly the WF blasts through, the sun comes out, it gets humid and finally the line blows through. Then I get to call and text back, saying "Ye of little faith."

 

It's happened more times than I can remember.

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