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April 15-19th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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DVN with an lo ****ing l worthy disco...

 

THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS MAIN DEEP

TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW

THEN BEGINS DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR MILWAUKEE BY EVENING.

TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN REGARDS TO

WHEN A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT

APPEARS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA

KEEPING THE MAIN OUTBREAK TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS

IS A BIT SLOWER AND THEREFORE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY GET IN ON

THE START OF THE OUTBREAK. HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER

70S IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 

 

had to read this dandy again.

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Today has been a pretty good example of early convection modulating the rest of the day. I don't think many if any models had the morning line getting as far east as quickly as it did.

 

Several HRRR runs overnight were doing just that, and actually even more so than what happened (they had legitimate convection entering Ohio by 20Z). At the very least, it was an indication that the pre-frontal activity was not going to be well organized. The whole setup is still going to pivot before the actual cold front arrives, but it's hard to see high-end potential out of that with all the junk out in front.

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Confirmed EF1 tornado in Shelburne, ON. First tornado for all of Canada in 2013, and the first tornado in Canada to be officially rated using the Enhanced Fujita scale.

708   
AWCN11 CWTO 191928  
UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE  
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA  
AT 3:21 PM EDT FRIDAY 19 APRIL 2013.  
  
-------------------------------------------------------------  
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==  
  
..FIRST TORNADO OF THE SEASON IN ONTARIO CONFIRMED..  
  
AT APPROXIMATELY 5:45 PM EDT ON THURSDAY, APRIL 18, A STRONG LINE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SHELBURNE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF  
TORONTO. BASED ON A DAMAGE SURVEY BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA PERSONNEL,  
ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A BRIEF ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) 1  
TORNADO APPROXIMATELY 6 KILOMETRES TO THE NORTHWEST OF SHELBURNE. AN  
EF-1 TORNADO HAS PEAK WINDS BETWEEN 135 AND 175 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.  
THE KEY DAMAGE NOTED AT THIS SCENE WAS A BARN WITH ITS ROOF AND TWO  
WALLS REMOVED WITH SOME PIECES OF THE BARN FIRMLY EMBEDDED INTO THE  
GROUND AT A DISTANCE OF 50 TO 100 METRES FROM THE ORIGINAL LOCATION.  
THE TOTAL LENGTH OF THE DAMAGE PATH WAS 500 METRES WITH A WIDTH OF  
75 METRES. INVESTIGATIONS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA THAT MAY  
RESULT IN THE LENGTH AND WIDTH OF THE DAMAGE TRACK CHANGING OR OF  
THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER TORNADOES. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED  
AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.  
  
THIS IS THE FIRST TORNADO OF THE SEASON, NOT ONLY IN ONTARIO BUT IN  
ALL OF CANADA. THE SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER SEASON NORMALLY BEGINS IN  
LATE APRIL AND ENDS IN EARLY OCTOBER. ONTARIO SEES AN AVERAGE OF 12  
TORNADOES EACH YEAR. THIS TORNADO ALSO REPRESENTS THE FIRST TORNADO  
IN CANADA TO BE RATED USING THE ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) SCALE AS OPPOSED  
TO THE ORIGINAL FUJITA SCALE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADOPTED  
THE EF SCALE IN 2007 AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS MONITORED ITS USE  
SINCE THAT TIME AND HAS DECIDED TO ALSO ADOPT THIS SCALE BEGINNING  
THIS YEAR. THE TYPES OF DAMAGE PRODUCED BY TORNADOES ON EITHER THE  
ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE OR THE ORIGINAL FUJITA SCALE ARE SIMILAR.  
HOWEVER, THE WIND SPEEDS OF THE VARIOUS CATEGORIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED  
BASED ON THE BEST AVAILABLE KNOWLEDGE CONCERNING THE WINDS REQUIRED  
TO DAMAGE STRUCTURES, VEHICLES AND TREES.  
  
THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT  
CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT.  
  
END/OSPC  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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