hm8 Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 KYIP (of course), has popped a 70 reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 49F here...west wind gusting to 25...still mostly sun, but lots of clouds around. No 60F here yet and won't be for at least another week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Nice band of rain forming along the cold front... 48F here/61F in MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Sitting at 65° now with clouds and showers moving in. It's been great having the windows open for the last 15 hours! While I was out I was seeing people putting their tops down and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Wow, did it ever warm up with the sun! Up to 66°. Feels like a heat wave. Lol Yea. Even with the very limited sunlight here it feels pretty warm. With full sunshine we'd be in the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Spring has arrived in the north woods! 48 with fog... birds singing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Spring has arrived in the north woods! 48 with fog... birds singing! 414131.JPG Nice! The rain that has started falling has brought out the "spring" smell again. Grass is really greening up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Nice 980mb low on the EURO at 96hrs. Will bring a lot of moisture with it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 HPC with a massive area of 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Today started out nice. Made it to 64 with some sun before the clouds thickened and the temp crashed. Sprinkly and 52 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 namMW_sfc_precacc_084.gif That's the NAM, but it's still going to be pretty darn wet! Wow, 6" amounts being depicted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 I think there could easily be 2-4 inch general rains from this system in a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 That's the NAM, but it's still going to be pretty darn wet! Wow, 6" amounts being depicted now. Those rain amounts are downright scary. DVN mentioned training convection in their new disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Those rain amounts are downright scary. DVN mentioned training convection in their new disco. Yeah - not very often you read a discussion like this. Luckily I'm too high up for flooding at ground level, but basement flooding is definitely possible on my block. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS VERY DISTURBING. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT LLJ WILL DEVELOP WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG FORCING. THETA E LAPSE RATES GO NEGATIVE SO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN. WHAT IS DISTURBING IS THAT THE FORWARD AND BACKWARD CORFIDI VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR OR OPPOSING EACH OTHER. NONE OF THE MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS SIGNAL CONTINUES...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA IS GREATLY INCREASED WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ANOTHER DISTURBING FACT IS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER. HOWEVER...THIS TREND OF GETTING WETTER FITS GIVEN THAT THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN. Strongly worded LOT disco. DETAILS SUCH AS WHETHER THE MAIN LOW TRACKS RIGHT OVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AND WILL HAVE A BEARING ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH DEEPENING SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADOES WOULD ALL BE POSSIBLE BUT CRITICAL DETAILS SUCH AS EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR CLEARING AND ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN INSTABILITY ETC MAY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT AND THESE WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO THE EVENT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME EXTREME AMOUNTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FORCING AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTION AND MULTIPLE EPISODES. REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE IMPACT DETAILS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES EXIST BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO HIGHLIGHT FAVORED AREAS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 18z GFS still really wet. Run nudged the heaviest axis slightly SE, but not by a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Looks like I'll escape this on the light side and I should still get over an inch! Could be some precip records broken for the month of April if that comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Could be a lot worse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Northern Perth County is still under a state of emergency three days after the Thurs/Fri ice storm. http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/2-800-still-without-power-in-listowel-area-1.1239169 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 nice soaking this evening. 18z NAM with a massive area of 5" with heavy rain continuing at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 There's been some pretty good showers passing through tonight. Back down into the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 NAM was a massive failure in Indiana with the last storm, with QPF/actual rainfall. Not sure I'd be giving it a ton of credence at this stage, with location anyway. But heavy totals in the region pretty legit considering all of the other guidance. WPC on it. Speaking of Alaska, 67" OTG at Valdez as of 4:00pm today. 366.3" of snow this season. Of course, on this date last year, they had 64" OTG and were at 437.6" for the season. That's awesome. SNOWFALL(INCHES)TODAY 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 40.1 SINCE MAR 1 113.8 SINCE JUL 1 366.3 SNOW DEPTH (IN) 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Yikes - even Skilling's in house model is cranking out those 6" amounts. 0z NAM is really juiced so far. Edit: Yeah that's wet. Raining east of the Mississippi beyond 84 hours. Guess I'll built a boat tomorrow. Holy balls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 COD has really become the go to site for me. Great looking models graphics, not to forget to mention radars, etc. Kudos to those gals/guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Wow, now up to 7" in the heaviest band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Yikes - even Skilling's in house model is cranking out those 6" amounts. 0417_18rain.png 0z NAM is really juiced so far. Edit: Yeah that's wet. Raining east of the Mississippi beyond 84 hours. Guess I'll built a boat tomorrow. Holy balls! This is ridiculous. Talk about epic flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Ugh. Need to start building the arc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 This is ridiculous. Talk about epic flooding. I hope future runs take it down a couple notches. This could rival the heavy rain events from July of 2011 and/or September 2008. There is even more rain beyond 84 hours. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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