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April 2013 General Discussion Part 2


MidwestChaser

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Those rain amounts are downright scary.

 

DVN mentioned training convection in their new disco.

 

Yeah - not very often you read a discussion like this. Luckily I'm too high up for flooding at ground level, but basement flooding is definitely possible on my block.

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS VERY DISTURBING. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A

SIGNIFICANT LLJ WILL DEVELOP WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE

AREA WITH STRONG FORCING. THETA E LAPSE RATES GO NEGATIVE SO

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN.

WHAT IS DISTURBING IS THAT THE FORWARD AND BACKWARD CORFIDI VECTORS

ARE PERPENDICULAR OR OPPOSING EACH OTHER. NONE OF THE MODELS WERE

SHOWING THIS OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS SIGNAL CONTINUES...THE

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA IS GREATLY

INCREASED WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ANOTHER DISTURBING FACT IS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER.

HOWEVER...THIS TREND OF GETTING WETTER FITS GIVEN THAT THE GULF IS

WIDE OPEN.

 

 

 

 

 

Strongly worded LOT disco.

 

 

 

DETAILS SUCH AS WHETHER THE MAIN LOW TRACKS RIGHT

OVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AND

WILL HAVE A BEARING ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND EXTENT OF

SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE

SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH DEEPENING SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER OR JUST

NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADOES WOULD ALL BE

POSSIBLE BUT CRITICAL DETAILS SUCH AS EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR CLEARING

AND ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN INSTABILITY ETC MAY BE THE DETERMINING

FACTOR IN MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT AND THESE WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL

MUCH CLOSER TO THE EVENT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE

PERIOD AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME EXTREME AMOUNTS AND THIS WILL

NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WITH A

PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.6

INCH RANGE AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FORCING AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE GIVEN

THE EXPECTED CONVECTION AND MULTIPLE EPISODES. REFER TO HYDROLOGY

SECTION BELOW FOR MORE IMPACT DETAILS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL

AND FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

DOES EXIST BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO HIGHLIGHT FAVORED AREAS AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

 

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NAM was a massive failure in Indiana with the last storm, with QPF/actual rainfall. Not sure I'd be giving it a ton of credence at this stage, with location anyway. But heavy totals in the region pretty legit considering all of the other guidance. WPC on it.

 

Speaking of Alaska, 67" OTG at Valdez as of 4:00pm today. 366.3" of snow this season. Of course, on this date last year, they had 64" OTG and were at 437.6" for the season. That's awesome.

 

SNOWFALL
(INCHES)
TODAY 0.0 
MONTH TO DATE 40.1 
SINCE MAR 1 113.8 
SINCE JUL 1 366.3 
SNOW DEPTH (IN) 67 

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Yikes - even Skilling's in house model is cranking out those 6" amounts.

 

 

0z NAM is really juiced so far.

 

Edit: Yeah that's wet. Raining east of the Mississippi beyond 84 hours. Guess I'll built a boat tomorrow.

 

Holy balls!

 

NAM_221_2013041600_F84_PCPIN_72_HR.png

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This is ridiculous. Talk about epic flooding.

 

I hope future runs take it down a couple notches. This could rival the heavy rain events from July of 2011 and/or September 2008.

 

There is even more rain beyond 84 hours. Scary.

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