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April 2013 General Discussion Part 2


MidwestChaser

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It's  a coming..  up to 64 a top Mt Waukegan.   51 and free AC lake breeze here is on borrowed time now.  It's like an early July night out there across most of  Wisconsin.

 

Tomorrow will be the first 80+ day since 9-12-2012.

 

Late April is one of the best times to have a +23 daytime high departure..  82 is warm but nothing intolerable like if it was a +23 July day and 103 outside. 

 

50's and low 60's return wed through next Monday :thumbsup:

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Only got down to about 66 this morning.  I love being able to finally walk outside comfortably in the morning.

 

We have only had a tenth of an inch of rain since the 18th.  I was hoping for something decent early this week, but it keeps getting pushed back.  It may be Thursday before we see any.

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Today=fail...worst thing about hot days in the spring it seems is hurricane winds...  its not even fun sitting outside when sand is blowing in your face.   

 

Can't believe the growth in trees just overnight.  All the buds on the trees are swelling and some of my younger apples have small leaves...the lilacs are totally covered in green leaves. 

 

Interesting thing this year...the apricots usually flower long before the apples...i wouldn't doubt if their blooms overlap this year.

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Can't believe the growth in trees just overnight.  All the buds on the trees are swelling and some of my younger apples have small leaves...the lilacs are totally covered in green leaves. 

 

Ditto.  A couple warm days has sent leaf-out into overdrive.

 

It's already 78 here in Cedar Rapids.  It's gonna be a warm one.

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Did a double take at the radar this morning...unless I missed something, not forcated at all.

 

Yeah, DTX has no clue what to make of it. My pop for today was 0 last night!

 

000

FXUS63 KDTX 301429

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1029 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

.UPDATE...

NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE WITH REGARDS TO THE

ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THESE MODELS ARE

COMPLETELY DRY...EVEN WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...WHICH AS RADAR AND

METAR REPORTS SHOW COULD NOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. THE ONLY

MODEL THAT HAS ANY IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THIS THETA-E DRIVEN

CONVECTION IS THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL WHICH PUSHES THESE RAIN SHOWERS

THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE WILL

RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS THIS

ACTIVITY SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL

SURELY NOT GET CLOSE TO 80 AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WHILE THERE

IS STILL HOPE THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE WILL BE ABLE TO BOOST

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THESE SHOWERS...WILL TAKE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES

OFF PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A FIRST SLICE AT HIGH

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

 

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But of course...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1029 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

UPDATE...

NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE WITH REGARDS TO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THESE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...EVEN WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...WHICH AS RADAR AND METAR REPORTS SHOW COULD NOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS ANY IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THIS THETA-E DRIVEN CONVECTION IS THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL WHICH PUSHES THESE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE WILL RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS THIS ACTIVITY SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY NOT GET CLOSE TO 80 AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WHILE THERE IS STILL HOPE THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE WILL BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEHIND THESE SHOWERS...WILL TAKE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A FIRST SLICE AT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

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But of course...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1029 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

UPDATE...

NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE WITH REGARDS TO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THESE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...EVEN WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...WHICH AS RADAR AND METAR REPORTS SHOW COULD NOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS ANY IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THIS THETA-E DRIVEN CONVECTION IS THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL WHICH PUSHES THESE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE WILL RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS THIS ACTIVITY SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY NOT GET CLOSE TO 80 AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WHILE THERE IS STILL HOPE THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE WILL BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEHIND THESE SHOWERS...WILL TAKE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A FIRST SLICE AT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

One of the biggest model/forecast fails of the year... This came out of nowhere.

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