BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Fake cold, pfft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Had some mangled snowflakes mixed in with the rain here about 20 minutes. Sping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Nasty nasty ass rain /snow/sleet mix right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 oops... 8th-14th Milwaukee had high temps of 50, 39, 38, 38, 43, 40 and 49 [CPC embarrassment snipped] Their forecasts up to the 14 day window aren't usually that bad, but dang that's terrible. Still not as bad as the Morch they forecasted in February. In other laughs, they originally predicted above-normal precip for april for the subforum in Mid-March, then yanked it from the forecast entirely on the 0 lead time update. If there's any better evidence that even moderate-term precipitation forecasting is still in total infancy and not to be taken seriously, that has to be it. I'm beginning to question the utility of even having them do published non-experimental forecasts. They're good at persistence and not much else. I mean, their current set of 3-month forecasts do nothing but forecast above-normal temps for the subforum for the next 1.5 years. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The upper 50s and low 60s with sun this weekend are going to feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The upper 50s and low 60s with sun this weekend are going to feel great. 30's, sun, and semi-light wind is feeling real good this AM.. 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Mod snow now. Effin' A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Snow/sleet/rain here. The mushrooms aren't going to like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Aldi has mushrooms on sale for 0.69 pennies. Only Mushrooms I'll be seeing for a bit yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Mod snow now. Effin' A. Yep. The column cooled off nicely and better than modeled. They should have kept the snow wording in the forecast. 35 degrees at noon on april 24 is pretty much nuts though. Radar looks more like february 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Its snow'n here. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 No bitching from MI.. you guys already had a 70 and even 80 in detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 No bitching from MI.. you guys already had a 70 and even 80 in detroit. If it makes you feel any better, the only reason we got to 80 for all of probably 5 minutes was because we had howling southerly flow gusting over 50 MPH. Not quite a day at the park (and even if you did go to the park, you then got stuck in the ensuing severe squall line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Just messing.. Its been a pretty horrible spring for a lot but we were kinda due for a stinker and are paying dearly for Morch 2012.. Even last April wasn't a walk in the Park month but it at least had a few moments and finished above avg still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 At 40° here with some sun breaking out. In the last 2 weeks ending yesterday, here is the amount of cold weather records that have been broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 32 and snow in Farmington Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 High of 43 last April 28th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 At 40° here with some sun breaking out. In the last 2 weeks ending yesterday, here is the amount of cold weather records that have been broken. Area that got the big snows out east also getting a decent spring too compared to back in these parts At least LAF and back west saved our March with the big snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 ^Yeah a lack of reports from the East Coast. Sounds like a little snow tonight in this area. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS PCPN TYPE WITH FAST-MOVING...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON 00Z NAM AND ECMWF...WITHTHE FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...VERSUS THE 00Z GFS.INSTABILITY NOTED WITH ELEVATED MAXIMA OF SATURATED EPV COINCIDENTWITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON NAM...WITH THE RESULTANTCONVECTIVE PCPN COOLING THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING TO THE SURFACEALLOWING THE MODEL TO PRODUCE 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW AT KENW...WHILEKEEPING ALL RAIN AT MKE WITH ABOVE 0C IN THE LOWEST 1K FEET. GFSNEVER SATURATES THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE AT MSN...AND ONLY BRIEFLYIN THE EAST.WILL TIME PCPN ACROSS CWA WITH STRONGEST FORCING RIGHT WITHWAVE...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z..ANDTHE EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WITH MORE OF A NODTOWARD THE NAM WILL START PCPN AS ALL RAIN GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE INPLACE THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. FAST MOVEMENT BRINGS QPFTOTALS AROUND 0.05 INCH...AND LATE CHANGE OVER LIMITS ANY SNOWACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES ATMOST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 At 40° here with some sun breaking out. In the last 2 weeks ending yesterday, here is the amount of cold weather records that have been broken. That map probably gives Brett Anderson and Jeff Masters indigestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 That map probably gives Brett Anderson and Jeff Masters indigestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 At 40° here with some sun breaking out. In the last 2 weeks ending yesterday, here is the amount of cold weather records that have been broken. Looks like us a long the lake are the only ones that had a Spring lolllllllll.. What a waste of time looking up all those warm April temps during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Had some mangled snowflakes mixed in with the rain here about 20 minutes. Sping! I think this is the latest date I've seen flakes here, beating out April 23, 2005. Still 39 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 That map probably gives Brett Anderson and Jeff Masters indigestion. Brett has published his Euro weekly interpretation maps for almost a few months now with vast cold and below normal areas in the U.S. and Canada. I have to imagine he gags a little bit each time he has to do it, but he at least doesn't get snotty or snarky about it on his blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Brett has published his Euro weekly interpretation maps for almost a few months now now with vast cold and below normal areas in the U.S. and Canada. I have to imagine he gags a little bit each time he has to do it, but he at least doesn't get snotty or snarky about it on his blog. What lead time is he using? Most "warmers" seem to default to above normal on anything farther than 1 month out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 What lead time is he using? Most "warmers" seem to default to above normal on anything farther than 1 month out. He goes up to about 3-4 weeks out. Here's his latest. He's going dry and warm next week for most of the subforum then "seasonable" the rest of the forecast period. I've never seen the source product he's using, which is one of the proprietary long-term ECMWF products. FWIW, it always seems more accurate (and specific) than the CPC's attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I think this is the latest date I've seen flakes here, beating out April 23, 2005. Still 39 degrees. You'll get your heat and humidity in due time. Patience my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Gorgeous out...bluebird day. Finally the kids can play outside. Temps are cool, but i can handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 He goes up to about 3-4 weeks out. Here's his latest. He's going dry and warm next week for most of the subforum then "seasonable" the rest of the forecast period. I've never seen the source product he's using, which is one of the proprietary long-term ECMWF products. FWIW, it always seems more accurate (and specific) than the CPC's attempts. 4 weeks is impressive, if accurate. 3 weeks isn't too bad, but that's getting into territory that the layman (myself) is able to take a pretty good stab at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Snowing at a good clip here. Big fat Flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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