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April 2013 General Discussion Part 2


MidwestChaser

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Let's go with this one. 

 

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@ Justin's post from the other thread - definitely going to have some hydrologic issues in the region. Already having issues in the area with river flooding. Pools of water cover decent sections of farmland right now. 

Farmers probably be able to get out into the fields until next week sometime and that's only if it warms up and stops raining then.

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IAZ052-150900-  
LINN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR RAPIDS  
928 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
LOW AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.    
MONDAY...BRISK
 
COOLER. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 50S. WEST  
WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.    
MONDAY NIGHT
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WIND  
5 TO 10 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN  
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 50. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.    
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.  
LOW AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH IN THE LOWER  
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
RAIN. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN  
80 PERCENT.    
THURSDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH  
IN THE UPPER 40S.    
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S.  
HIGH IN THE MID 40S.    
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S.  
HIGH AROUND 50.    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S.  
HIGH IN THE MID 50S.

 

At least there will be some sun this week.  Still cold for April standards.

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It will be interesting to see if the NAM is onto something with the trough ejecting in two pieces. It really opens the floodgates over the Midwest.

 

 

 

I was going to say, even though it will likely be wrong, the NAM would indicate some crazy hydrologic issues for much of the Great Lakes given a similar flooding rain type system to last week over a lot of the same areas.

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I was going to say, even though it will likely be wrong, the NAM would indicate some crazy hydrologic issues for much of the Great Lakes given a similar flooding rain type system to last week over a lot of the same areas.

 

There is already hydrologic issues going on. GFS is not that far off from what is shown above - just a bit further east. This cloudy, cold weather doesn't help the drying of soils whatsoever. Fox River in particular is probably going to be at a significant flood stage by weeks end if 3" of rain is in store.

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There is already hydrologic issues going on. GFS is not that far off from what is shown above - just a bit further east. This cloudy, cold weather doesn't help the drying of soils whatsoever. Fox River in particular is probably going to be at a significant flood stage by weeks end if 3" of rain is in store.

 

Yep, but if the week were dry, I could see those water rises subside quite a bit, but it is pretty clear that will not be the case.  Tuesday looks like the only likely dry day until we get to later Friday.

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There is already hydrologic issues going on. GFS is not that far off from what is shown above - just a bit further east. This cloudy, cold weather doesn't help the drying of soils whatsoever. Fox River in particular is probably going to be at a significant flood stage by weeks end if 3" of rain is in store.

I think Wednesday night could cause some big problems. The 12z GFS featured pwats increasing to over 1.6". For reference, that's almost off the charts for DVN RAOB climatology in April. 50% of the GEFS members had pwats over 1.25", which is in the top 10%. I worked the public shift at LOT today and highlighted Weds night hydrologic concerns in the HWO.

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Southern Whiteside to Northern Knox county may get some marginal severe gusts in the next 30-45 minutes line is coming together and intensifying nicely last few minutes.

 

 

Expecting a pretty good storm here in the next half hour or so.  Wasted most of the day out in central Iowa on a "chase" of what turned out to be garbage.  Hopefully these storms take away the sting of the disappointing afternoon/eve.

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