Indystorm Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I'm just astonished at the current low and mid level helicity on the SPC page over such a wide swath of the central and southern plains, ranging from up to 500 at low levels and up to 750 at mid levels....higher presently in Rockies. SW OK on ne will really be rocking tomorrow if moisture and CAPE get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Mike Smith isn't someone I would really trust for data. He's more of a politician for AccuWeather today versus a meteorologist. I've heard his Joplin talk several times and it uses flawed data and poor reasoning. He lost much of his credibility in my eyes. Just my personal opinion. I actually think all his meteorology in that discussion is somewhat valid to some degree (at least some of the concerns), but I agree, everything else about him stinks of Accuwx elitism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Mike Smith isn't someone I would really trust for data. He's more of a politician for AccuWeather today versus a meteorologist. I've heard his Joplin talk several times and it uses flawed data and poor reasoning. He lost much of his credibility in my eyes. Just my personal opinion. I'm in agreement with this. 00z NAM is running now. Through 12z tomorrow when compared to the 18z NAM, the front jumped farther NW in OK/TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Mike Smith isn't someone I would really trust for data. He's more of a politician for AccuWeather today versus a meteorologist. I've heard his Joplin talk several times and it uses flawed data and poor reasoning. He lost much of his credibility in my eyes. Just my personal opinion. yea also with the amount of forcing and diffluence overspreading the region I am pretty sure you will see very active severe weather before evening hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 You are talking about McAlester OK (Wichita Mountains) not Wichita KS right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yes. McAlester is in SE OK, near the Ouachitas. The Wichitas are entirely separate, near Lawton (I know this is what you meant). Looks like the 00z NAM is much more aggressive in lifting the front overnight into the morning, but then develops widespread convection by late morning that stalls "progress" and thereby ends up with a similar sfc map by 21-00z to what earlier runs had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 McAlester is in SE OK, near the Ouchitas. The Wichitas are entirely separate, near Lawton (I know this is what you meant). Looks like the 00z NAM is much more aggressive in lifting the front overnight into the morning, but then develops widespread convection by late morning that stalls "progress" and thereby ends up with a similar sfc map by 21-00z to what earlier runs had. does anyone think NAM may be overdoing precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 McAlester is in SE OK, near the Ouchitas. The Wichitas are entirely separate, near Lawton (I know this is what you meant). Looks like the 00z NAM is much more aggressive in lifting the front overnight into the morning, but then develops widespread convection by late morning that stalls "progress" and thereby ends up with a similar sfc map by 21-00z to what earlier runs had. Yeah I almost corrected myself, but didn't, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 STJ lifting northward and accelerating toward Baja California. Trough digging into southern California http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/southwest/current/southwest.wv.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Still skeptical of the NAM. Trying to figure out why it develops due northerly winds over the Panhandle in the face of no CAA and weakening surface ridging and increasing lee cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Still skeptical of the NAM. Trying to figure out why it develops due northerly winds over the Panhandle in the face of no CAA and weakening surface ridging and increasing lee cyclogenesis. Through about 13-15z it appears to be caving toward the consensus solution. That is swaying me more toward the side of riding the SREF/ECMWF and giving the NAM minimal weighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Vernon/US283 at the Red River - Wichita Mts - El Reno - Ponca City is the DP cutoff corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I know you gotta take each run of HRRR with a grain of salt but it is starting to show more morning convection now. That has been my biggest worry all along with this. Only time can tell. If that boundary can keep moving far enough north hopefully the convective outflow wont shunt it too far to the south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Goodness, the LLJ and resultant hodographs by 03z are astronomical from SW to C OK, and CINH remains minimal taking the NAM literally. The sole caveat I can find is a relative weakness in the flow around H7, but it remains to be seen whether that is real or a side effect of convective parameterization. Take away that weakness/kink, though, and the OKC metro area may be in a world of hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Goodness, the LLJ and resultant hodographs by 03z are astronomical from SW to C OK, and CINH remains minimal taking the NAM literally. The sole caveat I can find is a relative weakness in the flow around H7, but it remains to be seen whether that is real or a side effect of convective parameterization. Take away that weakness/kink, though, and the OKC metro area may be in a world of hurt. Holy cow, you're not joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Holy cow, you're not joking. goodness gracious. skinny cape but amazing turning/hodo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Frederick, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Will have a detailed post up in a while...thoughts are changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 NAM: 3z 5 SSW of Chickasha. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Frederick, OK. Yeah, that's pretty damn impressive, there's not a whole lot missing from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Chickasha at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 To add on to what I said, Disc's sounding from Frederick there reminds me of the one we saw prior to Nov 7th, 2011, and we saw what happened to the supercell that went into that environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 As I sit here and watch the weather on the local news and I've since watched the 6pm broadcasts from OKC they're basically all saying the tornado threat is in SW OK with the exception of one news cast out of OKC. Otherwise they're saying basically South of I40 and West of I35. Pretty interesting that the rest of the probabilities are really being downplayed. Makes me think they data they have access to that I don't must be saying something. I'll do my final eval tomorrow morning about 8 or 9am but at this point I'm sitting it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Well alrighty then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Incredible sounding there Jake. Also, GFS not budging through 12-15, already has a well developed sfc low in the TX Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 As I sit here and watch the weather on the local news and I've since watched the 6pm broadcasts from OKC they're basically all saying the tornado threat is in SW OK with the exception of one news cast out of OKC. Otherwise they're saying basically South of I40 and West of I35. Pretty interesting that the rest of the probabilities are really being downplayed. Makes me think they data they have access to that I don't must be saying something. I'll do my final eval tomorrow morning about 8 or 9am but at this point I'm sitting it out Broadcast mets have a tightrope they constantly must walk. All too often they are accused of "crying wolf" in situations where most of us on this forum understand didn't verify due to any number of meteorological factors. The general public, however, isn't as forgiving. I would imagine, based upon the data that continues to pour in this evening, that the tune may change somewhat on the morning programs with the arrival of the more detailed day one outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 GFS has the front lifting north of the KS/OK border by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 As I sit here and watch the weather on the local news and I've since watched the 6pm broadcasts from OKC they're basically all saying the tornado threat is in SW OK with the exception of one news cast out of OKC. Otherwise they're saying basically South of I40 and West of I35. Pretty interesting that the rest of the probabilities are really being downplayed. Makes me think they data they have access to that I don't must be saying something. I'll do my final eval tomorrow morning about 8 or 9am but at this point I'm sitting it out I don't think that's an accurate assessment of the overall threat, but for daytime chase opportunities, I would heavily favor SW OK and adjacent NW TX. Are you constrained on time of departure? As long as you can leave TUL by ~1-2pm, and can return as late as ~11pm, I'd go for it if you have an interest in chasing. Incredible sounding there Jake. Also, GFS not budging through 12-15, already has a well developed sfc low in the TX Panhandle. It's already becoming clear that the GFS solution is diverging from sfc obs. I'd be even more surprised by the GFS scenario of lifting the warm sector close to I-70 than the straight NAM scenario, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Well alrighty then. Is this the 0z NAM at FDR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is this the 0z NAM at FDR? Yes sir, at 00Z. Sorry for not making that clear, I guess I chopped it off the screenshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.