OSUmetstud Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 The ECMWF is having as much difficulty with this setup as all the other models. Sensitivity to latitude of the wave ejection, boundary layer params, vertical levels and subsequent depiction of the lee low, elevated convection (and the various params) mean it is not a good idea to ride any one model. The NAM and ECMWF are the two most similar operational models with respect to the southern WF placement here. true...but there's still a pretty sizeable difference with the warm front position over OK between the ec and the nam. I do realize that the stratus deck itself can basically act like a warm front over the area, anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 And the 12z GFS is still a potential tornado outbreak east of the dryline. The synoptic differences are pretty astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Morning vis is already hinting at holes in the stratus deck...and it is CU'ing up across portions of the northern and southern extent of the deck. We will see. I see no reason to write this off a a bust yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 true...but there's still a pretty sizeable difference with the warm front position over OK between the ec and the nam. I do realize that the stratus deck itself can basically act like a warm front over the area, anyway Strongly agree on the first point. The ECMWF looks like an extremely dangerous, HIGH risk type scenario for much of W/C OK. The NAM is a whole lot stingier. This is an incredibly difficult forecast for the 36 hr range. Even the compromise model (ECMWF) would be gangbusters and worthy of more hype than this event is getting in local media (since the threat ramped up so suddenly, this may be a rare case where things are UNDERplayed until the last minute). However, the hi-res modeling points to the NAM idea, possibly even further south. All I can say is that I'm glad it's not my responsibility to make the call in any official capacity right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 New Day 2 is out..... Looks like they trimmed the western portion of the MOD, but increased the 45% area farther NE into central MO (the discussion sounds like a huge question mark) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Why does it always have to be such a messy forecast when i have to make a 10 hour drive to my target..really torn on playing the WF closer to IL. Not sure yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Not sure how much it matters at this point, but the 12z UKMET and RGEM are still way N, with all of OK into the warm sector. Experience and time of year argue in favor of the NAM, but at the same time, almost all the global and regional models are indicating a solution that will likely yield a major tornado outbreak for OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 There's a rather remarkable difference between the NMM and ARW cores for the NCEP 4 km WRF runs. The former is in lockstep with the operational NAM, while the latter is very close to the ECMWF/UKMET outbreak idea. Time-sensitive: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_036_1000_500_thick.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_eus_036_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 New Euro looks like the old Euro as far as I can tell.. limited maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 New Euro looks like the old Euro as far as I can tell.. limited maps. Tulsa (from AccuWx PPV text) gets 0.6 in each of the 6 hours ending 18Z tomorrow and 0Z tomorrow evening w temps near 70ºF and pressure suggesting prior to passage of storm/CF WED 12Z 17-APR 16.7 15.2 1010 93 35 0.00 578 569 WED 18Z 17-APR 22.6 16.3 1006 87 69 0.61 576 571 THU 00Z 18-APR 21.0 16.4 1002 88 74 0.60 573 571 THU 06Z 18-APR 19.8 17.4 999 90 36 0.07 569 570 THU 12Z 18-APR 6.2 8.1 1008 86 86 1.02 566 560 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Front is just a hair bit farther NW at 18z on the Euro compared to last nights run. The bigger issue will probably be the early initiation still showing up. However, CAPE/Shear (not sure at what level) will still probably abundant even if early initiation occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Tulsa (from AccuWx PPV text) gets 0.6 in each of the 6 hours ending 18Z tomorrow and 0Z tomorrow evening w temps near 70ºF and pressure suggesting prior to passage of storm/CF WED 12Z 17-APR 16.7 15.2 1010 93 35 0.00 578 569 WED 18Z 17-APR 22.6 16.3 1006 87 69 0.61 576 571 THU 00Z 18-APR 21.0 16.4 1002 88 74 0.60 573 571 THU 06Z 18-APR 19.8 17.4 999 90 36 0.07 569 570 THU 12Z 18-APR 6.2 8.1 1008 86 86 1.02 566 560 my maps are kinda meh for details but looks like most everything is in the same spot as last run. ok looks prime.. blows up something big in the sw part of the state prior to 0z like the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 ha https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151397488441194&set=at.101937526193.93900.724566193.1496423261&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 my maps are kinda meh for details but looks like most everything is in the same spot as last run. ok looks prime.. blows up something big in the sw part of the state prior to 0z like the last run. It reminds me some of 4/26/09 (HIGH risk in W OK but largely a bust), but with much better directional shear. Regardless of the exact convective evolution and timing, I don't see how OK escapes at least several sigtors, given the EC solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 It reminds me some of 4/26/09 (HIGH risk in W OK but largely a bust), but with much better directional shear. Regardless of the exact convective evolution and timing, I don't see how OK escapes at least several sigtors, given the EC solution.I'm not totally up on how the Euro does comparatively on tor outbreaks but its solution 24-36 hrs out pretty solid and it's the best in that range overall so would prob agree. If you're in that's enough for me to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 I'm still skeptical about frontal position, but wow. I may need to get a shoe ready if the front actually lifts far enough north and we stave off any anafrontal nature of the convection long enough tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 I'm not totally up on how the Euro does comparatively on tor outbreaks but its solution 24-36 hrs out pretty solid and it's the best in that range overall so would prob agree. If you're in that's enough for me to believe. Actually, I've always been a tad skeptical of continuing the Euro worship once inside the 48-72 hr range. I have seen it nail things in the short range that even the higher-res, smaller-domain models missed, but I've also seen the opposite. So, I can't say that I'm all in just yet on the threat overall; just that the Euro, to me, looks like an outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 I'm still skeptical about frontal position, but wow. I may need to get a shoe ready if the front actually lifts far enough north and we stave off any anafrontal nature of the convection long enough tomorrow. What along day is that? i apologize can't find the date on there haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 What along day is that? i apologize can't find the date on there haha.. Tomorrow evening, says on the bottom.. 4/18/0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Tomorrow evening, says on the bottom.. 4/18/0000 no i mean which day in the past is that analog for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2013 Author Share Posted April 16, 2013 no i mean which day in the past is that analog for? Check your PM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 What along day is that? i apologize can't find the date on there haha.. It's just a composite of the top 8 analogs, and where the severe weather occurred on those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 I don't recall a day where we've had so much model disagreement so close to a possible major event. Good grief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 It's just a composite of the top 8 analogs, and where the severe weather occurred on those days. well hello then tulsa haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 All I can say is that I'm glad it's not my responsibility to make the call in any official capacity right now. Yeah, I don't envy this position at all right now, it's hard enough when dealing with the caveats for a less volatile setup, but you have the fine line between a significant tornado outbreak (in all likelihood on the non-NAM guidance) and potentially a complete bust (for OK in particular), it doesn't get a whole lot hairier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 The 15 analogs going into that timeframe from CIPS are: 4/14/1991 0000 UTC 4/5/1986 0000 UTC 4/11/1994 1800 UTC 5/13/2010 0000 UTC 4/26/1984 1800 UTC 4/27/1991 0000 UTC 4/2/1988 0000 UTC 3/27/1989 1800 UTC 5/5/1999 0000 UTC 5/12/1999 0000 UTC 4/22/2001 1800 UTC 5/13/2004 1800 UTC 4/30/2004 1800 UTC 4/5/1997 0000 UTC 4/10/2008 0600 UTC Bold = top tornado rating of EF3 Bold + italics = top tornado rating of EF4 Bold + underlined = top tornado rating of EF5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Actually, I've always been a tad skeptical of continuing the Euro worship once inside the 48-72 hr range. I have seen it nail things in the short range that even the higher-res, smaller-domain models missed, but I've also seen the opposite. So, I can't say that I'm all in just yet on the threat overall; just that the Euro, to me, looks like an outbreak. yeah, locally im not the hugest fan of the euro in the short range for convective details but i think it still outscores on most variables even in that range. i'd definitely rather have it on my side at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Looking at the Hi-res ECMWF, it does appear to have multiple rounds of convection. There are individual cells visible on the QPF output by 21z tomorrow and then a squall line moving across the entire area after dark. Discounting the NAM and the WRF-NMM, I think the MDT risk area will verify quite nicely (whether its covered with TOR or Wind reports). IF things continue to trend more NW with the front and the NAM comes around to the global models, then I do believe that tomorrow might surprise some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Can someone give me a rundown on tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Looking at the Hi-res ECMWF, it does appear to have multiple rounds of convection. There are individual cells visible on the QPF output by 21z tomorrow and then a squall line moving across the entire area after dark. that's very good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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