April 14-17th Severe Weather (Day 3 Mod)

[andyhb]

There's a lot of potential in every event. You can't just forecast for the highest potential every time. There are events when it is obviously evident that something big will happen, and the modeling is consistent, and you have enough confidence to forewarn the public about it. Then there are the events when the potential outcome is volatile and sensitive to large-scale perturbations. This was one of them, IMO.

 

And of course they're not allowed to issue higher risk outlooks because someone said so on a weather forum.

 

They don't...

 

For the second part, I don't think anyone was implying this, but whatever, I'm off it.

 

Anyways, this TOG is moving right at the Tulsa radar.

[thewxmann]

Yet you only talk now about it after the event has already happened. Basically you're trying to say "I told you so" when you never actually told us so... Well until now. SPC has an unforgiving job. They don't always get it right but they do the best they can. That's what happens when you're in the business of predicting the future. Many of the nations best forecasters also busted based on the same data you looked at. So forgive me if info think you are being a Monday morning QB when you've had that reputation on here before.

 

I don't have to share every one of my thoughts on this forum, so I didn't when I disagreed with the Day 3. Plus I knew a lot of people would crucify me if I said it. I have utmost respect for the SPC forecasters, and I know they have a difficult job, but please don't tell me I can't disagree with what they say. Amateurs disagree with what pros say, and that shouldn't be such a terrible thing. 

[ouamber]

I am located on the SW side of Tulsa.. Tornado sirens went off...tornado on the ground passed 6 miles to my south. Damage along highway 75 and areas east of there towards Broken Arrow. Power flashes happened during that time, but power is flickering here now. I am located near Glenpool...it was moving towards Bixby and Cowera.

[tornadotony]

Grab of the Tulsa metro TDS from a few minutes ago.  Rho-hv min of 0.55 collocated with a peak in spectrum width and the circulation, along with high reflectivity.

 

[andyhb]

* AT 1211 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BROKEN ARROW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

THIS STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO IN BROKEN ARROW AT ABOUT 1205 AM AND

MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO AT ANY TIME. ANOTHER STRONG

CIRCULATION THAT MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST

OF COWETA.

[thewxmann]

Extremely disappointing chase day. I missed the tornadoes, but from all indications there wasn't a whole lot to miss. I think the unusually high number of caveats (for a 15% hatched type setup) were well-understood here going into the event, and I can't say I'm shocked by the outcome. Even so, given the ungodly pattern we're now entering and coming on the heels of 2012, this stings quite a bit.

 

No point in dissecting the SPC products ad nauseum, but I would say this: even though I was surprised by and didn't exactly understand the D3 MDT, just because of its rarity and implied significance, I think the D2 MDT yesterday was warranted given the guidance at the time. The ceiling was too high (so it seemed) not to start sounding alarms at that stage. So, if it was eventually going to be MDT anyway, does the D3 really matter in the scheme of things?

 

The Day 3 MDT doesn't matter in the end with regards to verification, but because of, as you said, its rarity and implied significance, it should only be used when there is a high confidence of extreme weather, to warn the public well in advance of the likelihood of a high-end event. Which is the only qualm I had with the forecast: that the confidence was not there just yet.

[thewxmann]

FWIW, thewxmann isn't trying to rub it in...and lets face it, he was right in this case. For years he has had a "find what can go wrong" mentality which I actually appreciate. These days, most forecasters (hypecasters by definition) only look for things that can go right (i.e., they only forecast potential...and often times simply worst case scenario--think Reed Timmer or DT). in many ways it is a breath of fresh air to have a forecaster who looks at the bigger picture and considers the caveats and possible deal-breakers. He certainly does have a conservative bias (April 27th was a good example), but I don't think he is looking to boost his own personal ego or bash SPC.

 

Thanks BI for the support, took the words right out of my mouth.

[ZackH]

FWIW, thewxmann isn't trying to rub it in...and lets face it, he was right in this case. For years he has had a "find what can go wrong" mentality which I actually appreciate. These days, most forecasters (hypecasters by definition) only look for things that can go right (i.e., they only forecast potential...and often times simply worst case scenario--think Reed Timmer or DT). in many ways it is a breath of fresh air to have a forecaster who looks at the bigger picture and considers the caveats and possible deal-breakers. He certainly does have a conservative bias (April 27th was a good example), but I don't think he is looking to boost his own personal ego or bash SPC.

To some extent I agree. But I want to be clear I am far from a hypester... And I think Andy can back me up on that. Anyways, no harm no foul... I just hate seeing when SPC gets roasted when I know what a tough gig it is. And lets face it, things looked pretty good on the Day 3... I still think given the parameters that a Day 1 mod was warranted. Mods are tough to verify because they are always so conditional.

[andyhb]

(i.e., they only forecast potential...and often times simply worst case scenario--think Reed Timmer or DT).

 

I'll say this much, KFOR's coverage earlier was basically unwatchable...but that's a whole 'nother ball of wax.

[andyhb]

To some extent I agree. But I want to be clear I am far from a hypester... And I think Andy can back me up on that. Anyways, no harm no foul... I just hate seeing when SPC gets roasted when I know what a tough gig it is. And lets face it, things looked pretty good on the Day 3... I still think given the parameters that a Day 1 mod was warranted. Mods are tough to verify because they are always so conditional.

 

Your back is gotten.

[ZackH]

I'll say this much, KFOR's coverage earlier was basically unwatchable...

Tell me about it... I can't tell you how many incorrect meteorological terms were used at times... Made me cringe...

[ZackH]

Your back is gotten.

Lol I even remember getting into it once with you because I was adamant that everyone else was overhyping an event... Anyways, this is all what makes meteorology fun... We can all learn something and there isn't often a right answer.

[andyhb]

Tell me about it... I can't tell you how many incorrect meteorological terms were used at times... Made me cringe...

 

The debris ball nonsense (among other things) and Reed constantly hollering for imminent tornadoes and whatnot...just sounds like a mess waiting to happen.

[andyhb]

Lol I even remember getting into it once with you because I was adamant that everyone else was overhyping an event... Anyways, this is all what makes meteorology fun... We can all learn something and there isn't often a right answer.

 

Actually I believe that was some sort of semantics issue that was really a mistake of judgement of my part.

[baroclinic_instability]

To some extent I agree. But I want to be clear I am far from a hypester... And I think Andy can back me up on that. Anyways, no harm no foul... I just hate seeing when SPC gets roasted when I know what a tough gig it is. And lets face it, things looked pretty good on the Day 3... I still think given the parameters that a Day 1 mod was warranted. Mods are tough to verify because they are always so conditional.

Oh please don't think that, that wasn't a volley at you but at hypecasting as a general practice. I was as excited about this event as most others, and saw the potential (if anything I was hyping it up more than others even with the caveats known). I also felt the NAM was going to be totally wrong.

[andyhb]

Oh please don't think that, that wasn't a volley at you but at hypecasting as a general practice. I was as excited about this event as most others, and saw the potential (if anything I was hyping it up more than others even with the caveats known). I also felt the NAM was going to be totally wrong.

 

When I saw those WNW (almost westerly in some spots) winds along the retreating anafront last night, I thought the same thing (and the 74 degrees at Ardmore at like 3 in the morning or whatever time it was).

[ZackH]

The debris ball nonsense (among other things) and Reed constantly hollering for imminent tornadoes and whatnot...just sounds like a mess waiting to happen.

Yes, according to what I heard Reed report live today with KFOR, it sounded like about 20-30 tornadoes touched down from the first Lawton storm.

[ZackH]

Oh please don't think that, that wasn't a volley at you but at hypecasting as a general practice. I was as excited about this event as most others, and saw the potential (if anything I was hyping it up more than others even with the caveats known). I also felt the NAM was going to be totally wrong.

Oh I know, I just wanted to make sure. I mean I am kind of glad because if it wasn't for a presentation I would have been down for this one. But I thought this was at least going to be a decent tornado event. It really was the veer back veer profile that hurt things IMO. The cold front encroaching didn't help but the VBV soundings kept things from getting going then by the time the better dynamics nosed in, the CF took over and it was too late.

[brettjrob]

Oh I know, I just wanted to make sure. I mean I am kind of glad because if it wasn't for a presentation I would have been down for this one. But I thought this was at least going to be a decent tornado event. It really was the veer back veer profile that hurt things IMO. The cold front encroaching didn't help but the VBV soundings kept things from getting going then by the time the better dynamics nosed in, the CF took over and it was too late.

 

Today was just a cluster___ of everything going wrong that could, it seems. I understood why the initial storms were messy (VBV), and also why they stayed messy later into the afternoon and evening (frontal orientation and undercutting). But when a new round fired on the DL down south late, I really thought the day would redeem itself, as RAP soundings had shown a markedly different and near-textbook wind profile in that spatiotemporal window. Granted, the Vernon/Oklaunion storm did eventually become the most impressive of the day with a few confirmed touchdowns, but I'd have expected something more earth-shattering given its unimpeded inflow. Given the same setup again, it would be very tough to write it off.

 

I'd be very curious to know whether the outcome would have been drastically different had the warm front lifted about 50-60 mi. farther N (especially W of I-35), or if the environment still would have produced underwhelming results all the same.

[ZackH]

I also thought the later development would be drastically different.

[baroclinic_instability]

Here is Tony's bigger day, Thursday. Pretty large Mod farther E tomorrow.

[andyhb]

Tornado warning for Joplin...

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO142 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...  JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...* UNTIL 230 AM CDT* AT 138 AM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES  THAT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED OVER OTTAWA  COUNTY OKLAHOMA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF  PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.           SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL           OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...BAXTER SPRINGS...CARL JUNCTION...  CARTERVILLE...CARTHAGE...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...GALENA...IRON  GATES...JASPER...JOPLIN...ORONOGO...PURCELL...SARCOXIE...TREECE AND  WEBB CITY.

[SouthernNJ]

The QLCS has gotten stronger at the OK/MO border.

A couple more spin-ups have been confirmed by

TDS from Tulsa.  SGF going with blanket TOR

polygons for multiple circulations.

[andyhb]

Strong circulation coming into the west side of Joplin, crossing the KS/MO border.

[SmokeEater]

Strong couplet just west of Joplin.

[andyhb]

Fortunately looks to have weakened and gone north.

[JoMo]

yeah this whole tornado thing still isn't any fun.... lol

 

Tornado sirens went off twice. Once when the Tornado warning was issued for Newton county and once when it was issued for Jasper county. That was not good for my nerves. 

[SluggerWx]

Tell me about it... I can't tell you how many incorrect meteorological terms were used at times... Made me cringe...

If I heard the phrase 'red-line, center-line' one more time, I was going to mute the coverage...do these guys have catch phrases now?

[CoastalWx]

Wxmann brought up some good points over the past few days and I'm glad BI actually agreed. Just like weenies in the east when it comes to a snowstorm..sometimes people push back and bash someone who brings up red flags. There were a few big flags here, but such is the nature of convection. Some of the more mundane setups spit out supercells and TORs like nothing, while other setups that seem to have the big calling cards are just missing one small detail..and that's all it takes to keep activity down. To me H5 was one of the flags. + titled trough and no good S/W ejecting out and tilting the trough -. When you have a s/w kick out and eject from the Rockies like that, the divergence, shear, windfields  heightfalls, and rapid intensification of the low all  contribute to a big outbreak.  It doesn't always have to happen like that, but I certainly was not impressed with the H5 setup, despite the shear looking good.

[LocoAko]

Today was just a cluster___ of everything going wrong that could, it seems. I understood why the initial storms were messy (VBV), and also why they stayed messy later into the afternoon and evening (frontal orientation and undercutting). But when a new round fired on the DL down south late, I really thought the day would redeem itself, as RAP soundings had shown a markedly different and near-textbook wind profile in that spatiotemporal window. Granted, the Vernon/Oklaunion storm did eventually become the most impressive of the day with a few confirmed touchdowns, but I'd have expected something more earth-shattering given its unimpeded inflow. Given the same setup again, it would be very tough to write it off.

 

I'd be very curious to know whether the outcome would have been drastically different had the warm front lifted about 50-60 mi. farther N (especially W of I-35), or if the environment still would have produced underwhelming results all the same.

 

Random, but from what I've heard from various chasers yesterday (so take that for what it is worth), there were definitely at least a few touchdowns yesterday (Elgin, Lawton, Grandfield, etc) -- how come the SPC page still has nothing?