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April 14-17th Severe Weather (Day 3 Mod)


Chicago Storm

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BOOM

 

That didn't take long...southern cell now warned

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC065-141-TXC487-171945-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0099.130417T1859Z-130417T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
159 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  WESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOCKETT...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TIPTON...ODELL...FARGO...HUMPHREYS AND HESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO WARNING. GET TO A
STORM SHELTER OR STURDY BUILDING IF A TORNADO APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 9924 3443 9898 3406 9942 3415 9948
      3426 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 217DEG 27KT 3417 9944
 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

159 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  WESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

 

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

 

* AT 157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOCKETT...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
 
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
                                                                                                                                               
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TIPTON...ODELL...FARGO...HUMPHREYS AND HESS.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHWESTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

 

lol

 

Wish we hadn't taken down the CASA network on days like today.   We might get a borderline severe squall line by the time this thing hits the DFW metro overnight, but meh I can see that sort of thing up here.

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While maybe a tad premature to judge, storm structures look quite messy on radar right now. If you believe RAP hodographs valid attm, it's not hard to see why: a nasty kink and back-veer pattern between H7-H5. This is still forecast to improve very rapidly around 23z-00z in NW TX as the base of the trough edges in, transforming iffy soundings into ones that scream for SigTor's at places like Vernon and Seymour. Whether we can get new, discrete storms later on there is the issue.

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AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SW OKLAHOMA AND WRN N TEXAS...

SUPERCELL STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER SW OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 4 PM. STORM NORTH OF ALTUS VERY
CLOSE TO WARM FRONT AND STORM ACTUALLY ALTERING LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTAL SURFACE. WITH HIGHER VALUES OF HELICITY NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...STORM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF LOW LEVEL MESO FORMATION/TORNADOGENESIS. IF STORM CAN MAINTAIN
PROGRESSION CLOSE TO BOUNDARY POSITION AND NOT BECOME ELEVATED NORTH
OF WARM FRONT...MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR FORT COBB AND MAKE WAY INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKC METRO 5 TO 6 PM. AREAS TOWARD HOBART AND
EVENTUALLY WA****A AND CADDO COUNTIES NEED TO BE DILIGENT.

STORM JUST NORTHWEST OF VERNON TEXAS WELL SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AND
APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING STORM SPLIT AS IT INTENSIFIES/DEVELOPS
SUBSTANTIAL DOWNDRAFT. LEFT MOVER WILL POSE VERY LARGE HAIL RISK AND
RIGHT MOVER COULD POSE TORNADO/HAIL RISK TOWARD FREDERICK AND
LAWTON. LAWTON AREA...IF STORM CAN BE MAINTAINED...COULD BE AFFECT
4 TO 5 PM.
 

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Newest D1 maintains 15% sig-hatched tor, other than trimming to account for frontal position.

They really knocked the hail threat way back.  That seems odd to me.  Went from 45% hatched to 5%.

 

Edit: back to 45% hatched now..bizzare

 

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