SmokeEater Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 171809Z - 171945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN KS. WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD INTO SRN KS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE SURFACE FRONT ORIENTED FROM SW-NE ACROSS OK HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY... EXTENDING FROM INVOF KLTS TO 10 N KOKC TO 35 N KCQB TO 20 W CNU. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD INTO NWRN TX...AND THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FARTHER W ACROSS WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT EVENTUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN NWRN TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTS IN NWRN TX AND E OF THE DRY LINE ARE QUICKLY ERODING SURFACE INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE CU HAS BEEN GROWING DEEPER. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BREACH THE CAP AND SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NWRN TX SOON. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 15Z RAP. STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...INCLUDING TORNADOES. FARTHER W/NW...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SWLY MIDLEVEL JET. WW ISSUANCE FOR THE AREAS W THROUGH NW OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. ..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 MOD Day2 hatched area is enormous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 PDS coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Latest sfc obs. has a 70 degree dewpoint at SNL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 PDS coming? I'm not sure they'll go PDS yet or wait till 3:00or 4ish to do it potentially around the time of the next outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 We have a watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Missouri watch has higher probabilities than this one (50/30 probs for the new one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is it just me, or does Radarscope 2.0 have less resolution in SuperRes than 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 OK/TX watch probs don't really jive with 15% hatched on the outlook. If anything, a downgrade to 10% may be possible on the 20 UTC outlook down S. The watch text reflects the concerns hinted at by the last few runs of the RAP/HRRR of the front advancing southward much earlier than previously expected and undercutting nearby storms. Really thinking we'll need something to come off the DL in NW TX for a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is it just me, or does Radarscope 2.0 have less resolution in SuperRes than 1? It's the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 OK/TX watch probs don't really jive with 15% hatched on the outlook. If anything, a downgrade to 10% may be possible on the 20 UTC outlook down S. The watch text reflects the concerns hinted at by the last few runs of the RAP/HRRR of the front advancing southward much earlier than previously expected and undercutting nearby storms. Really thinking we'll need something to come off the DL in NW TX for a big event. Doesn't jive with the hail probs either, only 40/40, and hail has always been a huge threat, hence the 45% hatched. So I don't know if I would put too much into the lower probs at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is it just me or do I smell a bust coming? Can we not start with this before the first storm even forms in OK/TX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Initiation trying to occur near Crowell, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is it just me or do I smell a bust coming? It's you...enough with this type of stupidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Can we not start with this before the first storm even forms in OK/TX? No, because the first to call it is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Small cells quickly forming near Altus, and to the south. Went from nothing, to 35,000 feet in 2 scans. Is that the dryline just west of Altus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 OK/TX watch probs don't really jive with 15% hatched on the outlook. If anything, a downgrade to 10% may be possible on the 20 UTC outlook down S. The watch text reflects the concerns hinted at by the last few runs of the RAP/HRRR of the front advancing southward much earlier than previously expected and undercutting nearby storms. Really thinking we'll need something to come off the DL in NW TX for a big event. I feel like based on the outlook wording that they expect the most significant tornadic storms to form this evening when the LLJ really kicks in. Based on the previous outlook, at least. Although, the newer outlook also seems to infer the more substantial risk also lingering into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Small cells quickly forming near Altus, and to the south. Went from nothing, to 35,000 feet in 2 scans. Is that the dryline just west of Altus? Looks like a dryline alright. Two scans...that's about 15 minutes, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Interesting that the 15Z HRRR has some initiation as far south as somewhere between Midland and San Angelo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Small cells quickly forming near Altus, and to the south. Went from nothing, to 35,000 feet in 2 scans. Is that the dryline just west of Altus? No, it's the actual front. Those cells are gone-rs already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Looks like a dryline alright. Two scans...that's about 15 minutes, no? Almost positive it's once every 4-5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 VIL scan What exactly is VIL? What is the significance? That's a hail product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 SGF special 18z sounding says Yikes. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO149 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED APR 17 201318Z SPECIAL WEATHER BALLOON RELEASE SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLEATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERNMISSOURI. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE LOWER 80SWITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND WASAROUND -20 J/KG. 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE 250M2/S2. PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THEORDER OF 8C/KM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK MID LEVELWAVE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSSOUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP IN THEDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSSWEST CENTRAL MISSOURI MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI AT THISTIME. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSASAND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ACONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WHICH WILL BE ABLE TOPRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...ANDISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 VIL scan What exactly is VIL? What is the significance? Vertically Integrated Liquid.It's a hail product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I feel like based on the outlook wording that they expect the most significant tornadic storms to form this evening when the LLJ really kicks in. Based on the previous outlook, at least. Although, the newer outlook also seems to infer the more substantial risk also lingering into the night. I also simply wouldn't be surprised if the bigger threat ends up in MO. The low-levels are primed and once the better UL support moves it, it could be a hell of an evening up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 OK/TX watch probs don't really jive with 15% hatched on the outlook. If anything, a downgrade to 10% may be possible on the 20 UTC outlook down S. The watch text reflects the concerns hinted at by the last few runs of the RAP/HRRR of the front advancing southward much earlier than previously expected and undercutting nearby storms. Really thinking we'll need something to come off the DL in NW TX for a big event. Give the issues with the forecast, I wouldn't give that a second thought at this point. I've seen them upgrade watches to PDS in the past or reissue the watch when more substantive data becomes available. They could downgrade the Tor probs at 3pm but I doubt we see that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 155 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWESTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT * AT 153 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR BLAIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HOBART...GRANITE...BLAIR...MOUNTAIN VIEW...SENTINEL...LONE WOLF... GOTEBO...MARTHA...ROCKY...WARREN...ALTUS-LUGERT LAKE AND HESTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 No, it's the actual front. Those cells are gone-rs already. The one S of the Red initiated in the open warm sector away from the front, so if it can turn right a bit over the next hour, it may not be a goner. Time will tell. Still suspect the best potential will be with storms that fire in the same region (and slightly S) but a couple hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Can we not start with this before the first storm even forms in OK/TX? Meh, we get this all the time. Moderate risk doesn't equal tornadoes. The hail probabilities still support the moderate risk, but sometimes the thought is that SPC exists solely to point chasers in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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