Bryan Wood Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Deryl Herzmann posted on Twitter that the KS/MO/IL Tor Watch is the 59th longest (of 4723) in terms of time duration issued since 1997. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Clouds here in Tulsa have been thinning quickly the last 30-45 mins. Looks like more significant clearing taking place just to my south (Downtown Tulsa ATM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Temps are rising ahead of the dry line towards Sweetwater/Abilene area as low clouds thin, and SPC mesoanalysis shows CIN decreasing. And it isn't even noon yet. Models may not be all over it, but glass quarter full on dry line initiation well South of the colder air in Texas moving NE towards the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Great discussion from OUN highlighting several pertinent concerns. It is very frustrating, for chasers, to see the front stall out around LTS. The relatively minor difference between its current position and lifting that western edge/triple point to I-40 at Shamrock or Sayre would likely make a big difference in the number and quality of chaseable supercells this afternoon. So while the threat remains about as high as expected for populated areas from OKC north and east, I'm still dubious about what will happen farther SW. There's a relatively small spatial window for development along the dryline that would remain over the warm sector as it follows the mean wind, and the HRRR is currently suggesting almost all convection prior to sunset will be just behind the front. Still major potential from Seymour/Vernon/SPS to the OKC metro, but I'm not at all confident for this stage in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Still rather overcast here in Stillwater, OK with slight fog/mist in the distance. Sun has been barely poking through the cloud layer throughout the morning. This is facing west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Some kind of attempted development just west of here by a county or two....... I so wish I did not just look at the mesoanalysis page. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Some kind of attempted development just west of here by a county or two....... I so wish I did not just look at the mesoanalysis page. Yikes! Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Why? Parameters look nasty in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is velocity data down for KFDR? It's working now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Why? 2000 SBCAPE but increasing, 35 kts of bulk shear and increasing, eroding CIN, Supercell composite up to 16 with an STP of 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is velocity data down for KFDR? You mean radial velocity or VWP? I'm getting both right now in GR3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dljuly3 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is velocity data down for KFDR? It's working now KFDR has been experiencing issues on and off the past few weeks. Hope we don't see them crop up again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 2000 SBCAPE but increasing, 35 kts of bulk shear and increasing, eroding CIN, Supercell composite up to 16 with an STP of 2-3. Yup, see it now, forgot what part of the state Joplin is in SBCAPE is now in exess of 2500 in SW corner of MO. Edit: SBCAPE values rising fairly rapidly, up to 3000+ now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 At the risk of stating the obvious, there's a decent chance today produces one of the top few chaser convergence incidents ever seen, especially if a lone supercell fires near the TP and goes nuts with nothing around it. Probably about to head out down the ol' Turnpike. Really liking the look around Vernon to Seymour after perusing the RAP and HRRR in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 2000 SBCAPE but increasing, 35 kts of bulk shear and increasing, eroding CIN, Supercell composite up to 16 with an STP of 2-3. Yeah, folks in SGF's CWA certainly need to keep a watch out, it is apparent that the warm sector up there is a lot more clear than I personally thought it would be at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 You mean radial velocity or VWP? I'm getting both right now in GR3. Radial wasn't pulling up in GR3 for a little while there, I hope that the issues FDR had been experiencing don't crop up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 OUN 16z sounding.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 That is quite the ominous sounding there Disc, particularly with the instability parameters and the increase in the LLJ strength/backing coming later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I liked the Tulsa/Joplin I-44 corridor yesterday afternoon into last night as a secondary target area (the first being the triple point (SW OK) area). It looks even better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 OUN 16z sounding.. Ehh, that's concerning. There's 1.4 million people in the OKC Metro. Let's hope they're paying attention this afternoon and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 OUN sounding confirms it...Robust CAPE in the hail growth zone + nice lapse rate = Strong Updrafts and huge hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Possibly a gravity wave feature streaming north across Central TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWED A POTENT COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-14 G PER KG/ BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 8.5-9.0 C/KM. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THESE PARAMETERS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY STORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPARENT WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER ERN KS INTO MO. HERE...A RAPIDLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL COINCIDE WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/...AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEE RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 114 FOR DETAILS. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM N-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX...STRONGER CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DELAY STORM INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE DRYLINE-FRONT TRIPLE POINT. DESPITE AN INITIAL WEAKNESS IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS IN THE 2.5-4 KM AGL LAYER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-TRACKED/. AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF OK WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL GROW INCREASINGLY LARGE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. Don't think anyone posted this, but this is some strong wording from the latest D1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Possibly a gravity wave feature streaming north across Central TX. There is a S/W approaching this afternoon. Looks like warm sector storms popping just N of here, lightning strikes noted in that cell just SE of Pittsburg, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Is the tornado threat higher than previous thinking across NE Oklahoma/SW Missouri? I'm in Tulsa, and many of the local mets seem very tentative about making any statements about a significant tornado threat, but some of the things I'm reading on this thread seem to paint a potentially volatile situation for this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Possibly a gravity wave feature streaming north across Central TX. If you loop the vis, you can see that this was a remnant gravity wave from earlier this morning. Most of the other waves dissipated as the boundary layer became better mixed, but for whatever reason this one persists. A lot of times these persisten gravity waves are topographically forced, but that's clearly not the case this time. Could be associated with an east/west convergence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Anyone care to elaborate on "Gravity waves" and their impact on SVR weather or post a good link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Anyone care to elaborate on "Gravity waves" and their impact on SVR weather or post a good link? http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/64/ http://www.atmos.illinois.edu/courses/atms501-sp09/documents/6.02_MesoGravityWaves.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Large chaser convergence near Lawton, OK.. No matter how far you zoom in, there's more dots! I counted 55 chasers in the I-44 corridor from SPS to OUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 171809Z - 171945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN KS. WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD INTO SRN KS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE SURFACE FRONT ORIENTED FROM SW-NE ACROSS OK HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY... EXTENDING FROM INVOF KLTS TO 10 N KOKC TO 35 N KCQB TO 20 W CNU. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD INTO NWRN TX...AND THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FARTHER W ACROSS WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT EVENTUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN NWRN TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTS IN NWRN TX AND E OF THE DRY LINE ARE QUICKLY ERODING SURFACE INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE CU HAS BEEN GROWING DEEPER. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BREACH THE CAP AND SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NWRN TX SOON. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 15Z RAP. STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...INCLUDING TORNADOES. FARTHER W/NW...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SWLY MIDLEVEL JET. WW ISSUANCE FOR THE AREAS W THROUGH NW OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. ..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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