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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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You must live in a special area. It's been several degrees warmer at 1000feet farther north than you everyday. All lawns are nicely greened up and several on my street have already had to mow. Mine needs to be cut this weekend. Maples are leafed out with tiny leaves and azaleas and magnolias all in beautiful bloom

Leela Way was 66F yesterday and is currently 59F off of a high of 64F. You should be running similar or slightly cooler highs given your el.
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What would today have been had it been sunny?

ORH has been sunny all day. What was MOS there?

 

 

ORH today was 67F on both GFS/NAM MOS. High thus far is 64F and it is down to 63F last hour.

 

 

Bumping up temps when its sunny doesn't always work. The wind flow is wrong...that's what happens when we have a high almost on top of us and to the east.

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You must live in a special area. It's been several degrees warmer at 1000feet farther north than you everyday. All lawns are nicely greened up and several on my street have already had to mow. Mine needs to be cut this weekend. Maples are leafed out with tiny leaves and azaleas and magnolias all in beautiful bloom

 

 

What's your point, now in late April you argue that your warmer than I am but throughout the winter you are colder, okay Hyde.

 

Most folks around here have lawns that are large and would not even consider watering them.

 

Tree's around here are about 50% bare as of yesterday:

 

BT_zps0099c778.jpg

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Euro ENS phail.

 

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight.

  • Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 5 to 9 mph.
  • Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 38. East wind around 7 mph.
  • Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 62. Northeast wind around 9 mph.
  • Wednesday Night Patchy fog between 2am and 5am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 40. Light east wind.
  • Thursday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
  • Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
  • Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
  • Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.
  • Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
  • Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
  • Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
  • Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
  • Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
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GFS MOS for BDL today: 70F

NAM MOS for BDL today: 69F

 

Actual high so far: 65F

Current temp: 61F

 

 

 

The lesson is always go above MOS due to sun angle and mixing this time of the year.

 

 

There are some scenarios where that is applicable; not so sure that should apply to days of clouds and periodic evaporational cooling from dissipating showers, though.    

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The MOS thing is funny. It's statistical so if you have to bump the maxes up on every clear day then something is wrong with the product. Like Scoot said, there's times to go above it. Downslope dandies with anomalous warmth or March torches with no snowcover or wet ground are good times. Modelology FTL.

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What's your point, now in late April you argue that your warmer than I am but throughout the winter you are colder, okay Hyde.

 

 

 

You were around last summer right?  Its just the normal flip to summer Blizz.  Warmer in the summer with higher dews, while colder and snowier when in winter mode.

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