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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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Yes... random comments on a Tolland youth soccer field sideline mean the drought is becoming epic. 

 

 

Last year had less rain both from Jan 1st until now and March 1st until now in that area. We all somehow survived the catastrophe.

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-4.31 precip at BDR since March 1, not a drought but poorly timed with green up.  Soil is bone dry, a bit worrisome most of my clients are using irrigation already.  Bone dry weather as far as the eye can see, a tenth of an inch tomorrow won't do squat.

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We've finally dried out the backyard. The soil is pretty much perfect right now. I haven't pulled the soil moisture sensor to calibrate it yet though. 6" Soil temp is up to 53F.

I was going to throw some wood on the fire pit last night... but thank God I didn't with this epic dry spell. Would have spread through the whole neighborhood!

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Taylor Swift bought the Harkness House for 17 Million cash in Watch Hill. I have been inside that place doing some plumbing when I was a kid. It is crazy huge and the view of BI sound and LI sound is

spectacular. The light house keep at Watch Hill said during Sandy the spray from crashing waves was going over the HH. That's about 100 ft above the Ocean Screenshot_2013-04-28-18-37-20.png

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Posted a bunch of images in the NNE thread, but three years ago I was experiencing the best late-season snow event of my life.

 

The largest upslope event of the 2009-2010 season came on April 27th-28th with 18-24" falling above 750ft... even BTV came in with around 6 inches which is impressive for that location on April 28th.

 

3 years ago today... a lot more greenery on the trees than this year.  There's pretty much nothing green out there right now, when in 2010 leaves had already popped and were getting crushed by 1-2"/hr snows.

 

What an under-rated event for being so late in the season.

 

IMG_0850_edited-1.jpg

 

Great NW flow event that led to snow cover on May 1st in a lot of the upslope communities. 

 

 

27APR10E.jpg

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Taylor Swift bought the Harkness House for 17 Million cash in Watch Hill. I have been inside that place doing some plumbing when I was a kid. It is crazy huge and the view of BI sound and LI sound is

spectacular. The light house keep at Watch Hill said during Sandy the spray from crashing waves was going over the HH. That's about 100 ft above the Ocean Screenshot_2013-04-28-18-37-20.png

 

She looks like she'll get some upslope off the ocean.  Maybe we can get her to post her obs here.

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I have a question I really hope someone can answer.  

 

I'll use climate indices as an example.  You know how many of the indices are standardized to like a 30-year mean?  How do you do that?

 

What I want to do is do that for some tornado data but maybe standardize it in terms of 15-year periods.  The reason I want to do this is to come up with more accurate numbers and to take into account the fact over the past two decades increased storm chasers, better radars, spotters, etc certainly have lead to an "increase" in spotted/confirmed tornadoes.  

 

So let's say I add all confirmed March tornadoes from 1950-2012 into an excel spread sheet...my periods would be 1950-1964, 1960-1974, 1970-1984, 1980-1994, 1990-2004, 2000-2014...when I place the data in the spreadsheet how do I make standardization numbers for each of these periods? 

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Folks at soccer today asking me why it's been so dry, are we headed for drought thus summer. They can't remember such a dry spring. Comments like that from non weenies means its getting bad

 

 

I would have thought it difficult for folks to strike up a conversation while wearing mask's to keep out all the airborne dust raised by people playing soccer?

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I'd like to some rains for the seed I'm putting down.  Not worried about the 'boy who cried wolf/chickenn little drought', but the areas I'm overseeding are both too large and too far removed from my water source to effectively water.  I'd never do it, but I wonder how much it would cost to put in an irrigation system.  I think the lawn area furthest removed from the Pit itself is about 1000'.

For an irrigation system, the heads are roughly 30' apart. installers charge between $100-125 per head (the cheapest you will find might be as low as $75/head, the highest might be $150/head). Figure out your square footage and you can get a rough estimate.

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