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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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Hopefully the euro forecasts for a cooler summer are correct.

 

Last season was bad for agriculture.   One can only wonder if that were to happen again so close in time.  What is annoying is that USDA is cagey with the information, dancing around making discrete statements pertaining to impacts with flashy graphs, and write-up statements like:  "67 percent are produced in areas with at least severe drought".  duh, we know there were areas affected - WHAT WHERE THE AFFECTS.  

 

I hate that kind of cagey write-up.  Don't say that, tell us the percent of loss -- Jesus!  They got to know that. It's so stupid, and frustrating that they won't speak in plain English.  I think maybe they do that to conceal [perhaps] the real magnitude/extent of loss, so as to control panic?  I dunno.  

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Its in the 70's on that Map verbatim with torching chinook. And who said we were? Just what it's showing

Verbatim you're wrong. Maybe a little east of the Black Hills there would get near 70F, but most of the upper Midwest, into the Upper MS Valley, is in the 50s to near 60F.

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Verbatim you're wrong. Maybe a little east of the Black Hills there would get near 70F, but most of the upper Midwest, into the Upper MS Valley, is in the 50s to near 60F.

 

Usually if you regress his assertions of a model toward climo by half, its closer to correct of what it is actually showing. Cold rains for us and 50s for most of the upper plains finally.

OP model runs at day 10 are usually pretty reliable.

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Usually if you regress his assertions of a model toward climo by half, its closer to correct of what it is actually showing. Cold rains for us and 50s for most of the upper plains finally.

OP model runs at day 10 are usually pretty reliable.

I love how I post verbatim what a map says and yet still you find a way to twist it. Verbatim it has snow in New England and 70's in the N Plains. Who said anything about it actually verifying like that?
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Verbatim you're wrong. Maybe a little east of the Black Hills there would get near 70F, but most of the upper Midwest, into the Upper MS Valley, is in the 50s to near 60F.

 

 

I think it may extrapolate that way... if the chart went to D11 or whatever.   

 

Also, I'm noticing the lack of Sonoran heat there.  Weird to see that kind of ridging with no +20C's at 850 down in the deep SW. 

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Usually if you regress his assertions of a model toward climo by half, its closer to correct of what it is actually showing. Cold rains for us and 50s for most of the upper plains finally.

OP model runs at day 10 are usually pretty reliable.

 

 

AH HAHAHHAHAHAHHhahahahhhaha

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I love how I post verbatim what a map says and yet still you find a way to twist it. Verbatim it has snow in New England and 70's in the N Plains. Who said anything about it actually verifying like that?

I can look at 18z/00z 2m temps with my own eyes. lol

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I love how I post verbatim what a map says and yet still you find a way to twist it. Verbatim it has snow in New England and 70's in the N Plains. Who said anything about it actually verifying like that?

 

No, I agreed with dendrite. Verbatim is does not have that. Its too warm in the low levels for snow in N.E. and the plains are mostly in the 50s with a patch of 60s in the western Dakotas. Maybe if we fast forwarded beyond the end of the model, the plains would be warmer, but then we are no longer talking a model solution verbatim.

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No, I agreed with dendrite. Verbatim is does not have that. Its too warm in the low levels for snow in N.E. and the plains are mostly in the 50s with a patch of 60s in the western Dakotas. Maybe if we fast forwarded beyond the end of the model, the plains would be warmer, but then we are no longer talking a model solution verbatim.

With a down sloping chinook and +16 850's they would roast .
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