Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Another frosty morning with a low of 28° F this morning. That's two sub 30° F mornings in a row, which is pretty impressive for late April. I think we have one more shot at a subfreezing tonight if we can radiate well, but it will be close. Average last freeze date here is between 5/1 and 5/10.

 

Forsythia are just starting to open, particularly the bushes that are in exposed, sunny locations. A few of the Norway Maples have yellow-green flowers that are just beginning to burst out of enlarged buds, but most of them are not quite open yet.

 

There's the typical variation per elevation in the area.  We are 195' elevation down here in the Nashoba Valley, and the Forsythias have been in full bloom for over a week, and are more than half leafed out. Other shrubbery have small leafs, and the sugar and red maples are showing small leafs penetrating through their flowers now.   Bees and bobbing in and around them, as well as other flowering flora.  Even the oaks are bud-swelling.

 

Night's have been chilly relative to these balmy afternoon's, a trait attributed to the low soil moisture (I think...).  There was frost on my car top late last night, yet it was 64F for a high.   As green-up gets lusher, we will start to see DPs creep up and that will tend to offset the radiative cooling capacitance, for obvious reasons.  But it's the point, I think a somewhat dry bias in the area over the last month is not helping to elevate the overnight lows.   I thought it was interesting the other day, that Worcester put up a 72F for a high, which is pretty outstanding pre-May 1 for that elevation, yet their daily departure was listed as a mere +7 F.  It was because the low was at the previous midnight, and was 38 or so.   That was coincidentally for a different reason though; that was murk cold as opposed to diurnal extreme because of dry air.  Still...be it that method or the other, we are having a big day-night differential season this spring.  Interesting...

 

It is interesting to see the Euro and GFS at odds.  But seeing the Euro ensemble sort of backing off and also showing more of a ridge node over Ontario and the NE U.S. between D6 and 10, probably shouldn't lend much credence to the GFS operational idea of a pig upper low passing off the MA.  Huge hugely disparate sensible weather impacts given to either...   The Euro operational would keep things balmy and pleasant, with temps moderating a degree or two every day right out to the end, where as in stark contrast the GFS operational would of course bomb everyone from the VA Capes to Maine with Atlantic misery.  Frankly, not intending to fan the flames of Kevin's apparent passions for drought in the area ... it probably would be better for the region at this point if there was some inject of moisture from some source.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Gotta love these differences!

 

test8.gif

 

I know it!   haha... They pretty much can't be any more out of phase over Appelacia.   I think over the long haul we're probably safer siding with the Euro here, although it really doesn't have very much better verification scores in that extended range, just the same.   

 

It's probably a bit of a toss -up, more than usual for it being April, though.  

 

I just saw the 12Z operational GFS make a pretty big jog toward the Euro, as it now build a +582DM height ridge/node over southern Ontario and the NE states, similar to the Euro, and has repositioned its deep mid/U/A cut-off further West, so we may in fact be seeing a case for that Euro solution as being more likely.  

 

Frankly, I think a good deep tissue soaking rain is needed at this point.  We've had enough nice days ... above normal perhaps, that paying that price is holistic but practically needed at this point.  I wouldn't mind a 3-day saturation event.  Then we'd bust out likely and get warm anyway....   Although, contradicting my self all over the place here, but the NAO teleconnector trending negative deeper into May has me a bit nervous.  

 

May can easily be a real, real stinker of a month when looking back at histories.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

There's def a bit of a Sultan signal in the really long range past D9-10 on the Euro ensembles...we'll have to see how that evolves as we get closer. Its been there for several runs now.

 

"Sultan" ??   

 

heh, unfamiliar with that one

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I know it!   haha... They pretty much can't be any more out of phase over Appelacia.   I think over the long haul we're probably safer siding with the Euro here, although it really doesn't have very much better verification scores in that extended range, just the same.   

 

It's probably a bit of a toss -up, more than usual for it being April, though.  

 

I just saw the 12Z operational GFS make a pretty big jog toward the Euro, as it now build a +582DM height ridge/node over southern Ontario and the NE states, similar to the Euro, and has repositioned its deep mid/U/A cut-off further West, so we may in fact be seeing a case for that Euro solution as being more likely.  

 

Frankly, I think a good deep tissue soaking rain is needed at this point.  We've had enough nice days ... above normal perhaps, that paying that price is holistic but practically needed at this point.  I wouldn't mind a 3-day saturation event.  Then we'd bust out likely and get warm anyway....   Although, contradicting my self all over the place here, but the NAO teleconnector trending negative deeper into May has me a bit nervous.  

 

May can easily be a real, real stinker of a month when looking back at histories.  

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see a pattern closer to the Euro verify.  We have seen times in the past were we've been in dry patterns only to have some sort of trough or block develop giving us periods of rain over the course of several days.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Overall a nice week. The normal nellies will rejoice.

 

And it's possible that omega block just rots over us and we never get into the moisture.... could wind up being a really nice 10-15 day stretch too.

 

Better up north in VT and upstate NY but still pretty awesome down this way. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...