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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah some of us have been discussing how its a very warm and dry pattern right into Mid May for SNE.nteresting Euro now agreeing

 

Yeah ...heh, I wouldn't bounce it that way.  It's getting to that solution in an odd way.  Also,  "very warm" implies mid 80s, if perhaps enhanced with RH.   That's not really what that is showing... I could see that being 72-79, elevations to valleys, day 6+, buy dry and RH not high.  

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Another picture Joe sent me of the Dust Bowl.  Look at the dunes and how far inland they are now.  Desert for as far as the eye can see. Compare this shot to the lush green foliage he posted just a week ago and the 36" of snow from February.  Totally different world there. 

 

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Yeah some of us have been discussing how its a very warm and dry pattern right into Mid May for SNE.nteresting Euro now agreeing

Model flip-flops in the medium range will likely continue. 00z Euro could very easily show a drastically different scenario.

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the euro ens mean is wetter than the op and shows days and days of onshore flow/rain/drizzle

 

Its a decent signal for 8-10 days out. It has potential to be a pretty solid rain event for someone given where the anomalies are at H5. Hard to say if its centered more down near DC or it makes it up this way at this point.

Its pretty darn stagnent too all the way out to about 5/10.

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-3.91 precip at BDR since March 1 not a drop in the forecast for the next 7 days according to the fine folks at OKX, not a single drippidy drop

I grow a lot of water-needy vegetables like lettuce and arugula, and the dry weather is definitely an obstacle down here. Not a hydrological drought by any means with the recent wet climate but certainly a minor concern for agriculture if it persists. Recent droughts have been broken up by heavy rain events however like October 2005 after the extremely hot summer. 

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I grow a lot of water-needy vegetables like lettuce and arugula, and the dry weather is definitely an obstacle down here. Not a hydrological drought by any means with the recent wet climate but certainly a minor concern for agriculture if it persists. Recent droughts have been broken up by heavy rain events however like October 2005 after the extremely hot summer. 

Every garden I ever had required water. You do not have access to a hose?

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